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UK Polling December 6, 2022

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Speaking of polling, and isn’t it a sign of the times that we move inexorably towards electoral contests of one sort or another, consider briefly UK Polling which – for me, is fascinating if only due to the remarkably chaotic swings that we have seen in the last while around it – with the end of the Johnson era, the Truss interregnum and now Sunak’s leadership of the Tories. And as a consequence of this the huge swings to Labour. Polling in the UK appears to be very frequent with numerous polls each week, so one does get a good impression of the overall dynamics.
That said, that said…

Marginal enough changes. Labour is on a slight downward tilt – but look at the Tory figures, descending far more rapidly. And all this is relative. The last two polls covering this last week still show the BLP at a robust 48% and the Tories at 25% or thereabouts. A hint that LD support is hardening? But really no great change and Labour still so far out ahead that one would have to wonder can the Tories catch up? Already a raft of stories of Tory MPs seeing the writing on the wall and deciding to step down ahead or at the next election. That alone presents that party with problems, after all, more difficult to fight in this context and win with unknown or new names. That the BLP is taking it almost absurdly cautiously – see some of Starmer’s rhetoric around the single market and how the UK wouldn’t be better off rejoining (it’s not that he’s wrong politically in that rejoining is not an option in the near to medium future, but that he’s not willing to even state the reality that yes Britain would be better off but that that is not an option politically) tells us much about its own self-perception as a party and perhaps a hint of the political reality it exists in, for better and for worse. Then again difficult to come out and say to voters that a referendum decision was materially wrong in many respects.

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