That vote

So the vote came in and the vote went out and the government is still standing. Despite noises there were more than sufficient votes to see the government was safe. That said the GP has lost a TD, for the moment anyhow.

In a way more interesting is why some Independents voted with the government.

Note how matters stood the day before yesterday:

Galway East TD Seán Canney published eight amendments that he said the Government had to accept in order to secure the Regional Independent Group’s support for lifting the eviction ban.

Mr O’Brien held talks with some of the group’s eight TDsand then clarified in the Dáil that he would accept their various amendments on rental policy.

RIG member Michael Lowry said yesterday evening that he was likely to vote in favour of the Government counter-motion, and a number of his colleagues are expected to follow suit.

First and foremost they are clearly are in no mood for an election. That’s not unimportant in itself. If they thought that not supporting the government would work to their advantage – or that the issue was likely to seriously damage them – they wouldn’t hesitate to go for an election. After all, what alternative would they have? So if they believe that they can weather the storm, that whatever mitigations the government has offered are sufficient, then they also must believe that come the election the issue will not be ‘live’ at that point. Of course they could also argue that were it still very prominent that they had fought for mitigations but the government had not delivered. 

Secondly they may believe that simply by flexing their muscles in this way they continue to demonstrate their relevance. That’s not unimportant either. Not much point in them sitting on the sidelines. 

Thirdly, is there any chance that they feel that aligning with Sinn Féin is a bad look for them? This makes sense in the context of Sinn Féin’s current level of support. By supporting a Sinn Féin vote does that diminish the independents? That has to be a factor in their thinking.

Then there are other factors. Given the Independents come from largely the same political home as Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil it’s not exactly a surprise that they would share similar political and largely the same ideological approaches and be more likely to back those parties when push came to shove.

That said, you have to wonder. The proposals they sought from the government do nothing to alleviate the immediate crisis in relation to evictions. And with Hourigan gone the coalition is – on its own numbers on a knife edge and ever more dependent upon the Independents, those who will support it. A further point to throw into the mix is whether they can while flexing their muscles actually gain on issues in ways that make them politically more secure. That’s a question isn’t it? 

And RTÉ offers this analysis:

But even if the Dáil arithmetic on that day remains broadly similar to today’s result, the ultimate measure of all this will be another far more significant figure.

That is the number of people who find themselves without a home in the months ahead.

If that figure surges, then today’s Dáil victory will count for very little for Government.

In any event today the government remains safe in situ. Some of the Independents continue to provide support when even a government TD votes against the government. 

yet, there is little or nothing of the febrile atmosphere around the FF/GP coalition of the late 2000s. This isn’t the most stable coalition but there are groups of support it can call on when in trouble. And they continue to support it. 

All this points towards the next election being a good length of time away. Everyone mentioned above, bar those independents who voted against the government and broader opposition are invested in the government making it to the end of its term, or as close as makes no difference. Interesting to know that.