They know their base: FG and the new SBP poll March 25, 2023
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.trackback
A new SBP poll out this evening (thanks to Tomboktu for the heads up). And the results?
Sinn Féin 31% NC
Fine Gael 22% +1
Fianna Fáil 17% -2
Ind/Others 12%-1
Social Democrats 6%+2
Labour 4% NC
GP 3%-1
PBP-SOL 3% NC
Aontú 2% NC
Other Party 2% +1
Okay, it’s all well with the margin of error, even that SD gain of 2%. But still. Wouldn’t you know FG would see a slight increase. In a way though isn’t the telling aspect of this that even despite the way in which the eviction ban has filled the political discourse the actual changes reflected above are so minimal. Consider how so many NC’s there are.
On the other hand, the eviction ban is going to run and run. The SBP in the article accompanying the poll argues that ‘Leinster House insiders’ still expect autumn of next year to be the time of an election. And that’s surely what the government will aim at, in order to get past issues like the lifting of the ban.
The Cedar Lounge Revolution 
There seems to be a stalemate. I have always said Fianna Fail be sister party of SNP not Liberal Democrats. They didn’t listen look at them now. As income inequality increases we need change through parliament.
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Indeed if this pattern persists I can envisage another FF+FG “arrangement” after the next general election
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I could see that myself.
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My guess is that the next campaign will feature SF pushing for the first government without FF or FG, which would build nicely on the Vote Left, Transfer Left theme from the last time out. Its not impossible that enough seats can be won to put together some sort of coalition between SF, SD and others. The others could include the Greens (whether or not Eamonn Ryan likes the idea)
FF/FG are well enough placed to scrape over the line and retain power, but their campaigns will be damaged by their efforts to distinguish themselves from each other. FG pushing the line that its ‘us or SF’ could well help them keep a few seats- but could also help SF.
The real question is how will it play if the only stable looking option after the election is SF/FF?
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Agree with that. Just on your last point I can’t see FF doing it. I just can’t. Not because of SF particularly but because of having to take a subsidiary role in a coalition. it would be a bit like the situation the LP is in going from medium sized party to small party. For FF as the largest party to have to take a secondary role, it would be an admission of defeat. Maybe the election after if they hadn’t grown.
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You wonder how a Deputy Prime Minister Attlee became Prime Minister. Different parties represent Different classes I suppose
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