Irish Times Election Predictions November 27, 2015Posted by irishelectionliterature in Irish Politics.
The Irish Times has its election coverage with analysis and predictions for each constituencey .
Their predictions end up as
FG 53, FF 35, Lab 16, SF 24, GP 1, Renua 3, SD 2, AAAPBP 4, Others 20
Reading the analysis from a Left viewpoint, from the predictions we’d have Paul Murphy, Ruth Coppinger, Brid Smith, Richard Boyd Barrett, Joan Collins, Clare Daly and nobody else (Is Catherine Connolly in Galway West far left?). In essence, after five further years of austerity, one less far left TD than the current Dail. (Joe Higgins retiring and Seamus Healy losing out). I’m sure we are all at times coloured by our viewpoints but surely we’ll be seeing more from the far left in the Dail than those.
I may be wrong but 16 seats looks like a very good day for Labour and 35 isn’t too bad for FF either. I have a feeling too that as the Independent field becomes more crowded we are likely to see less than 20 Independents elected.
Irish Times IPSOS MRBI poll November 26, 2015Posted by irishelectionliterature in Irish Politics.
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From The Irish Times
Fine Gael, 30 per cent (up two points);
Labour, 7 per cent (down one );
Fianna Fáil, 19 per cent (down one);
Sinn Féin, 21 per cent (up two)
*Independents/Others, 23 per cent (down two).
*The Independents/Others is given as ….
Independent Alliance 3 per cent;
People Before Profit/Anti Austerity Alliance 2 per cent;
Renua at 2 per cent;
Social Democrats on 2 per cent each,
with Others receiving support from 5 per cent of those surveyed.
The Green Party was on 2 per cent.
presumably that leaves 7% for actual Independents.
Labour not recovering, SF back up to second. This of course plays into the FG v SF narrative that I presume both parties would like to have as one of the themes for the election.
Labour at 10 on its ‘worst day’ ? November 21, 2015Posted by irishelectionliterature in Irish Politics.
The party has carried out analysis which claims on the party’s worst day it will return 10 TDs and on its best 16.
Which seems a bit optimistic, an awful lot would want to go right for them to get 16 seats and I’m sure I’m not alone in thinking that a ‘worst day’ could see them return with far less than 10.
The analysis shows that the party is confident it can secure seats in Longford Westmeath with Willie Penrose TD, Tipperary with Minister for the Environment Alan Kelly, Louth with Minister for Small Business Ged Nash, Wexford with Minister for Public Expenditure Brendan Howlin, Limerick with Minister for Education Jan O’Sullivan, Kildare South with Mark Wall and North Kildare with Emmett Stagg TD.
It believes on a good day it can also secure seats in Carlow Kilkenny with Minister for Rural Affairs Ann Phelan, Cork North Central with Minister of State at the Department of Health Kathleen Lynch, Dublin North West with TD John Lyons and Clare with TD Michael McNamara.
The party believes it could secure five seats in Dublin – Dublin West with Tánaiste Joan Burton, Dublin Mid-West with TD Joanna Tuffy, Dublin Bay South with Minister of State at the Department of Social Protection Kevin Humphreys, Dublin Fingal with TD Brendan Ryan and in Dublin Bay North with Minister of State Aodhán Ó Ríordáin.
All the other Labour TD’s are likely to lose according to the analysis…..
Interestingly one of their safest TD’s , Willie Penrose was in the Indo the other day talking about his health problems, he has yet to decide if he will run again. I imagine ,like Kathleen Lynch, he is being put under pressure to run. Hard also to see the above list all get in.
Meanwhile up in Longford Fianna Fail are in disarray over having a female candidate imposed. If the candidate drops out , it will reflect badly on FF and won’t do them any favours at all.
Drivetime on Dublin West, Dublin North West and Dublin Central November 20, 2015Posted by irishelectionliterature in Irish Politics.
RTE Radio Ones Drivetime have been doing a series of ‘Road to the Election’ pieces. On Monday (16th November) they had a number of pieces on three Dublin Constituencies , Dublin West, Dublin North West and Dublin Central. There were interviews with people about what they thought the issues were. It was interesting to hear the views of voters in different areas and what their priorities were.
Included in the various pieces was analysis on who would win the seats from Sean Donnelly and Niamh Lyons.
Mary Lou McDonald and Maureen O’Sullivan reckoned as safe. He has Joe Costello winning the final seat. Paschal Donohoe losing out. Christy Burke also mentioned as having a chance. Mary Fitzpatrick was also discussed but given little chance. No mention of any other candidates of being in contention.
Dublin North West
Róisín Shortall and Dessie Ellis are seen as safe. The third seat was seen as between John Lyons of Labour and Noel Rock of FG and Paul McAuliffe of FF. Sinn Feins second candidate (Cathleen Carney Boud) mentioned too. I think they went for Lyons in the end.
Leo Varadkar seen as a cert. Ruth Coppinger not seen as secure. “The shock of a lifetime” if Joan Burton lost her seat. The battle between Paul Donnelly of SF and Coppinger mentioned. Jack Chambers of FF seen as having a chance. Former FF cllr David McGuinness also mentioned as damaging FF.
They went for 1FG, 1 Lab, 1 SF and 1 AAA.
Although it was fairly concise I thought the analysis was a bit lazy and based almost entirely on the 2011 General Election results and the current polls, rather than looking beyond that. Donnelly seems to lump Independents/Others totally to Independents, if you look at core votes Independents are only up a few percent since 2011. So little or no mention of various Left wing candidates. I can’t see it being the “shock of a lifetime” either if Joan Burton lost her seat.
He does make the point though of Labour candidates being put over the line by Fine Gael transfers and that’s a possibility in all three of these constituencies. However in Dublin Central and even in Dublin North West it could be the opposite.
Any thoughts on their predictions?
Sunday Times/Behaviour and Attitudes Poll November 14, 2015Posted by irishelectionliterature in Irish Politics.
Fine Gael 26 (+2)
Labour 7 (-1)
Fianna Fail 20 (+1)
Sinn Fein 21 (+2)
Ind Alliance 2
Thanks to Paddy Healy for posting up details
AAAPBP on 9% is quite incredible. Labour at 7% no lift whatsoever for them. Sinn Fein back ahead of Fianna Fail too and Fine Gael still moving up.
FF/FG and Elections in The North November 13, 2015Posted by irishelectionliterature in Irish Politics.
A few weeks ago I was looking through some old Young Fine Gael Conference items and lo and behold there were motions over the years for Fine Gael to organise in Northern Ireland. Somehow I can’t see it happening.
Yet funnily enough two of the most prominent (outside of SF) Northern Politicians to move South, John Cushnahan and Austin Currie joined Fine Gael.
One of the regulars in FF Ard Fheis are motions on running candidates in The North.
Last year they made a seat on their Ard Comhairle (Committee of 15) for a Northern member, which was duly elected. FF have organisations in the North including Down, Belfast, Queens University and the University of Ulster. They are also having the Ogra Fianna Fail National Conference this weekend in Newry.
Of Course Dev (and Michael Collins) was elected a number of times in Northern Ireland . In 2009 Assembly member Gerry McHugh joined Fianna Fail, although did not serve as an FF representative in Stormont.
Regarding Fianna Fail’s republicanism, Mr McHugh said: “The commitment to a united Ireland and the ability to deliver it are what counts. I don’t know if Sinn Fein has the ability to deliver in that way. I think Fianna Fail are a long-established party . . . I believe they are committed to a long-term goal of uniting the country in a way that is in agreement and in consensus with unionists. Nobody is talking about forcing a united Ireland on any people.”
Given that one of the aims of Fianna Fail is
“To Secure the Unity and Independence of Ireland as a Republic”
It’s a wonder why they haven’t actually stood candidates in all of the Island. Presumably it is in part out of respect for the SDLP but post Hume they seem to be going nowhere fast. Could the idea of another All Ireland Party appeal to Sinn Fein voters as well as SDLP ones?
To contest elections would be a huge gamble, fail badly and they leave themselves open to ridicule, however any success would surely be hitting SF hard in their won backyard and of course boost FF morale.
I wonder what the plan is to get from the Universities to the streets? Will they concentrate on becoming active in a number of constituencies or Council areas. They are lucky that they will have a decent number of party volunteers on tap ready to go up and help canvass and campaign. Will they attract established figures from other parties or just build from the ground up……. will be interesting to see.
Sindo/Millward Brown poll….. November 7, 2015Posted by irishelectionliterature in Irish Politics.
POLL: Sindo/Millward Brown
(Oct 28-Nov 6, MoE ±3.1%)
FG 29 (+5 since end July)
Lab 7 (-)
FF 24 (+1)
SF 21 (-)
GP 1 (-)
Inds/ors 19 (-5)
Will add details later if they come in.
Fianna Fail and Dublin November 6, 2015Posted by irishelectionliterature in Irish Politics.
One of the big problems for Fianna Fail since the passing of Brian Lenihan has been their lack of a Dublin TD. On TV and Radio it’s invariably a rural TD talking about issues that often relate to Dublin. For a while Averil Power would be wheeled out and give a Dublin (and female) voice for the party. Now Timmy Dooley , Barry Cowen et al are good but don’t exactly set Dublin voters fires alight.
In 2011 they had many retirements with Bertie Ahern , Noel Ahern, Michael Woods, Sean Ardagh, Eoin Ryan and Tom Kitt retiring, but still probably ran too many candidates. It may well have cost them seats in Dublin North and Dun Laoghaire . Indeed it’s something Labour have learned from with a raft of (enforced?) retirements leaving all but one Dublin Constituency with a single Labour candidate.
That said, aside from Dublin West where Brian Lenihan was elected, in Dublin North, Dublin Central,Dublin North East,Dublin South East, Dublin South West and Dun Laoghaire the Fianna Fail vote was enough to be in the position of a seat after the first count. They fell back as they were transfer toxic and had a lower than normal internal transfer rate. Nationally they got even less transfers than Sinn Fein.
FF haven’t exactly shone in the polls although have shown a small rise recently. That jump from 17% to 20% has the potential to win return a lot more seats for them. In the Local Elections the larger number of Councillors and expanded Local Electoral Areas suited them. In Dublin City Council they went from 6 seats in 2009 to 9 to 2014, In Dun Laoghaire Rathdown they went from 4 in 2009 to 8 in 2014. In Fingal they went from 4 in 2009 to 7 in 2014. In South Dublin County Council they went from 4 in 2009 to 5 in 2014. A decent enough boost for the party in Dublin after their horrific General Election.
In the European Elections in the 3 seat Dublin Constituency Mary Fitzpatrick was actually third after the first count but was overtaken by Nessa Childers and Eamon Ryan. What was interesting was that she had a lot more votes than Labour.
At the next Election Fianna Fail will be a little less toxic, but will also be favoured by Labour being toxic and to a degree Fine Gael and Sinn Fein too. A polarised electorate with a large amount of Non Transferable votes. So those seats that were narrowly missed out on will probably come into range. The question is where. Were I plotting Fianna Fails Campaign I probably would have stuck with one candidate in each of the Dublin constituencies. However gender quotas has meant the addition of some candidates and it will be interesting to see if that has any impact on winning seats.
Dublin Central (3) : Having lost some of her base in the constituency redraw it is going to be hard for Mary Fitzpatrick to win a seat here.You’d have to assume Mary Lou McDonald is safe. However votes could be spread everywhere between Paschal Donohoe, Joe Costello, Maureen O’Sullivan, Christy Burke, Cieran Perry and some others that a decent first preference vote may put her over the line. Unlikely to win here.
Dublin Mid West (4) : Former TD John Curran is running here. Frances Fitzgerald is the only one who could be considered safe here. Eoin O’Broin of Sinn Fein should also make it. Then it’s between Curran, Gino Kenny of PBP, Derek Keating of Fine Gael, Joanna Tuffy of Labour, Anne-Marie McNally of the Social Democrats and even Shane Ross Independent Alliance candidate Paul Gogarty for the final two seats. A lot will depend on O’Broins surplus, transfers from the WP and also if Keating or Tuffy went out first. Curran who polled a respectable 5,043 votes in 2011 should increase his vote, be less transfer toxic and will be there or thereabouts. I suspect he’ll be returned.
Dublin Fingal (5) Running 2 candidates in the old Dublin North possibly cost Fianna Fail a seat here in 2011. There’s an extra seat this time and they are running Darragh O’Brien and Lorraine Clifford-Lee. It’s hard to see Alan Farrell (FG), James Reilly(FG) and Brendan Ryan of Labour all retain their seats. Hard to see Fianna Fail not winning a seat here.
Dublin Bay North (5) The ‘group of death’ where Dublin North East joins up with Dublin North Central and loses a seat. Sean Haughey and Deirdre Heney are running for Fianna Fail here. There should really be an FF quota here but with 2 candidates and 2 gene pool candidates in Jimmy Guerin and Averil Power it might be difficult. Sean Haughey polled 5,017 votes in 2011 and polled 2,440 votes in the Local elections. Deirdre Heney polled 2,175 votes in the Locals. Of the two, I’d imagine Sean Haughey will poll better given his appeal and profile in the old Dublin North East. With such a fractured field I think Haughey has a decent chance. He’ll be there or thereabouts.
Dublin North-West (3) Paul McAuliffe is running for FF here. You’d have to assume Roisin Shortall and Dessie Ellis will be elected. Which leaves a battle for the final seat between a host of candidates. I suspect that McAuliffe will be there at the end but will miss out narrowly.
Dublin Rathdown (3) Senator Mary White is the FF candidate here. She has the place plastered with meeting posters and has been delivering leaflets in the area for the past few years so you’d want to be blind to not know that she’s running. I’d assume that Shane Ross and one Fine Gael candidate will be returned. Catherine Martin of the Greens, Alex White of Labour and the second Fine Gael candidate will all be in the battle for the last seat here. I suspect it will be a battle of the Whites for the final seat, with FG and Green transfers pushing Alex White over the line.
Dublin South-Central (4): Catherine Ardagh running for FF here. The constituency has been redrawn and reduced by a seat. In the redraw the parts of Terenure which were previously in Dublin South Central have gone to Dublin Bay South. There would have been a solid FF vote there. There’s a SF seat, probably Brid Smith and then Joan Collins, Eric Byrne, Marie Devine of Sinn Fein and Catherine Byrne in with a shout. I think the redraw and reduction of seats will hamper FF here. No Seat.
Dublin Bay South (4): Jim O’Callaghan running for Fianna Fail here. In 2011 Chris Andrews (then of FF) was 4th in this four seater after the first count. So the question is how much of that was a personal vote and will that vote transfer to Sinn Fein. Ruairi Quinn retires leaving Kevin Humphreys of Labour, Eoghan Murphy of Fine Gael and Lucinda Creighton of Renua. Other candidates incluse Glenna Lynch of the Social Democrats, Kate O’Connell of Fine Gael and Eamon Ryan of The Greens. Again it’s a hard one to call, although I’d assume Murphy will get in. Despite his good performance in the locals Chris Andrews was outpolled by Fianna Fail. Given the nature of the constituencey I can’t see Andrews winning here. It’s hard to know if Lucinda is safe or not and The Greens will throw everything at Ryans campaign. Again I suspect O’Callaghan may just miss out.
Dublin South-West (5): John Lahart running for Fianna Fail here. Currently a four seater with Sean Crowe of SF, Paul Murphy of The AAA , Eamon Moloney (ex Labour) and Pat Rabbitte. Rabbittes retiring, Maloney doesn’t have a chance. Theres one Fine Gael seat here anyhow and maybe two. I can’t see Labour holding here and the challenge may come from Katherine Zappone. FF were sensible here running the one candidate. I think Lahart will be elected.
Dublin West (4): This is a funny one in that Brian Lenihan won a seat here in 2011, but I’m not convinced, despite to decent by-election performances that Jack Chambers can win here this time. David McGuinness who left the party after failing to be selected will take some FF votes and I’d also imagine that big names like Joan Burton and Leo Varadkar would take some potential FF votes. Ruth Coppinger should win a seat here, leaving Chambers fighting it out with Sinn Feins Paul Donnelly or indeed one of a number of Independents.
Dun Laoghaire (4): In effect a three seater. Cormac Devlin and Mary Hannifin running for FF here. You’d have to assume that Mary Mitchell O’Connor and Richard Boyd Barrett were safe. Ideally FF would have run just the one candidate here. In the local Elections some parts of the constituency had a decent FF vote and I’d imagine Mary Hanafin will get plenty of media coverage. With Gilmore gone Labour are going to find it difficult to hold the seat although a lot will depend on how Labour and Fine Gael transfer to each other and of course how well the second FG candidate Maria Bailey polls.Carol Hunt could poll well and Ossian Smyth of The Greens may also attract some disaffected middle class Labour voters.The final seat should be between FG and Labour but bad FG vote management and the popularity of Hanafin (and yes she is popular) could see her scrape through.
I reckon that they should win at least three seats in Dublin and on a good day with various factors going the way of FF they could have as many as eight TD’s elected in Dublin. We’ll see.
PBP in Right2Change but the AAA are not , is PBP-AAA gone? October 31, 2015Posted by irishelectionliterature in Irish Politics.
Right2Change and the voting pact has been covered before.
However according to Reports
People Before Profit has signed up to a left-wing electoral alliance while its election partner, the Anti-Austerity Alliance (AAA), has not, according to a Right2Change briefing.
Is PBP-AAA finished?
Dublin Central again October 30, 2015Posted by irishelectionliterature in Irish Politics.
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The Herald picked up on Noel Gregory backing Christy Burke rather than Maureen O’Sullivan.
Any thoughts on how this impacts the chances of Burke or O’Sullivan or will it have any impact on what is likely to be a close race.