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Another Poll February 10, 2016

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Irish Politics.
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POLL: RedC/Paddy Power
(Thurs-Mon, MoE 3%)
FG 30(-1 in 3/4days)
Lab 8(-2)
FF 18(+1)
SF 17
Ind 11(-3)
IA 4(+2)
AAAPBP 4(+1)
SD 3
GP 2
Renua 1

Full details can be downloaded here

It’s all margin of error stuff. The campaign doesn’t seem to have taken off yet or is just a dull campaign….or just public apathy.
Have had very few canvassers call, yet to see a canvass when out shopping or the like.
The only ones I’ve seen have been walking down the Canal on the way to work. I wonder are the numbers of party people active in the campaign down? That the parties don’t have the membership they once did.

What would your “Portillo Moment” be ? ….and why? #ge16 February 6, 2016

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Irish Politics.
46 comments

Talking to a number of people about this in the past few days , the same couple of names kept cropping up from people of different persuasions….. So who would you like most to lose their seat and why?

Connaught -Ulster at the General Election February 3, 2016

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Irish Politics.
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Having previously done Munster and Leinster (Minus Dublin) it’s off to Connaught -Ulster…..
31 seats in 2011 (will lose 3 seats this time) FG 17 , FF 5, Lab 2, SF 4, Ind 3
This now stands at FG 15, FF 6, Lab 1, SF 4, Ind 5
As ever the final few seats are an educated guess which a slight shift in the polls or a local issue popping up can make the predictions look ridiculous!

Connaught -Ulster

Cavan-Monaghan (4) Heather Humphreys (FG), Joe O’Reilly (FG),Sean Conlan (Ind) ,Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin (SF), Brendan Smith (FF) are the outgoing TD’s. The constituency has lost a seat and part of Cavan to Sligo-Leitrim.This will be a target for Sinn Fein who are again running Kathryn Reilly along with Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin . Smith, Ó Caoláin and Humphreys should get in. I’d expect Conlan to lose his seat with a battle between Joe O’Reilly and Kathryn Reilly for the final seat with O’Reilly holding on.
2 FG, 1 SF, 1 FF

Donegal (5) Charlie McConalogue (FF), Pádraig Mac Lochlainn (SF), Pearse Doherty (SF), Dinny McGinley (FG), Joe McHugh (FG) and Thomas Pringle (Ind) are the sitting TDs. Dinny McGinley is retiring. Two 3 seaters now a five seater with a bit of South Donegal gone to Sligo Leitrim. McHugh, Doherty and Mac Lochlainn should make it. Pat ‘The Cope’ Gallagher is running for Fianna Fail also and will surely take a seat, question is whose? Pringles or McConalogue? Even though Geography is against Pringle (in that part of his base is gone to Sligo-Leitrim) I suspect he will be more transfer friendly. So FG to lose one and a change from McConalogue to Pat The Cope in the FF ranks.
2 SF, 1 FG, 1 Ind, 1 FF

Galway East (3) Michael Kitt (FF), Colm Keaveney (FF), Ciaran Cannon (FG), Paul Connaughton (FG) are the sitting TD’s. Kitty is retiring and the a swathe of the old Galway East has gone to Roscommon to make it a 3 seater. There’s one FG seat, probably Connaughton (although he has lost a bit of his base in the redraw. There’s one FF seat although hard to call if it’s Keaveney or Portumna based Anne Rabbitte, I suspect it will be Rabbitte. Which leaves the final seat. Sean Canney an Independent will poll well and probably be fairly transfer friendly. He will probably make it.
1 FF , 1 FG, 1 Ind

Galway West (5) Sean Kyne (FG), Brian Walsh (FG), Noel Grealish (Ind), Éamon Ó Cuív (FF) and Derek Nolan (Lab) are the outgoing TD’s. Walsh is not standing and Mayo TD John O’Mahony is running for FG. Ó Cuív is a certainty , but after that it’s a toss up with O’Mahony, Kyne, Hildegarde Naughten (FG), Trevor Ó Clochartaigh (SF), Catherine Connolly(Ind), Nolan and Grealish and possibly Niall Ó Tuathail (SD) all in contention.
In the end I’ve a hunch Grealish will lose out with Trevor Ó Clochartaigh (SF) , Catherine Connolly , O’Mahony and Kyne joining Ó Cuív in the Dail.
2 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF, 1 Ind

Mayo (4) Enda Kenny (FG), Michael Ring (FG), Michelle Mulherin (FG), John O’Mahony(FG) and Dara Calleary (FF) are the sitting TD’s. O’Mahony moves to Galway West after a redraw reduced the number of seats from 5 to 4. Kenny, Ring and Calleary are certainties leaving the last seat as the one to call. Fine Gael will hardly be able to win 3 of the 4 seats and Michelle Mulherin is likely to lose out. Fianna Fails second candidate Lisa Chambers could be in the running if there is decent vote management and of course enough votes to manage. One wonders if former TD Jerry Cowley running on a “No Doctor, No Village” platform will perform well. Rose Conway-Walsh of Sinn Fein is also in with a shout. There are also two First Independent Mayo candidates who may do well. A hunch gives the final seat to one of the Independents.
2 FG, 1 FF, 1 Ind

Roscommon East Galway(3) Michael Fitzmaurice (Ind), Denis Naughten(Ind) and Frank Feighan (FG) are the sitting TD’s. Feighan is retiring. You’d assume Fitzmaurice and Naughten are safe which leaves a final seat between Eugene Murphy of Fianna Fail, Maura Hopkins of Fine Gael and Claire Kirrane of Sinn Fein. I have a feeling Fine Gael will win the final seat here.
2 Ind , 1 FG

Sligo-Leitrim (4) John Perry (FG), Tony McLoughlin (FG), Michael Colreavy (SF) are the sitting TD’s. Colreavey is retiring. This was previously Sligo North Leitrim but now takes in all of Leitrim, part of Donegal and a part of Cavan and has gained a seat in the process. Sinn Fein run Leitrim based Martin Kenny and Sligo based Chris McManus. Fine Gael have John Perry, Tony McLoughlin and Leitrim based Gerry Reynolds. Fianna Fail have former TD Eamon Scanlon, Senator Marc MacSharry and Leitrim based Paddy O’Rourke.Independents Declan Bree and Marie Casserly should also be in the mix. There’s one Sinn Fein seat , one Fine Gael seat and probably 1 Fianna Fail seat. I’d hazard Kenny will get in for Sinn Fein, McLoughlin for Fine Gael and Scanlon for Fianna Fail…..with Bree or Casserly taking the final seat….
1 FG, 1 FF , 1 SF , 1 Ind

FG 10 , FF 6, SF 5, Ind 7

On a good day for FG they’d get 13, bad day 8
On a good day for FF 10 on a bad day 5
On a good day for SF 8, bad day 4
On a good day for Ind 8, a bad day 3

Knowledge of ‘The Far Left’ February 2, 2016

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Irish Politics.
13 comments

At the recent FF Ard Fheis I noticed that there were a number of SWP (ex SWP?) people on various stands. At one stage three of them stood together chatting, I joked with an FFer I know about FF becoming the latest front for the SWP…… I got a blank stare, He didn’t get it, didn’t even know who the SWP were, never mind some of their modus operandi.
I found myself explaining who People Before Profit were and so on. I was just struck how someone with years experience in politics and indeed a lifetimes interest in politics had bundled everything to the Left of Labour as ‘loony left’, with little or no knowledge beyond that.
Similarly some friends who are very interested in politics/elections would be of a similar disposition in that they could tell you all sorts of political facts but wouldn’t have any knowledge of the Far Left.

Independents4Change January 31, 2016

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Irish Politics.
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I see Joan Collins has joined the Independents4Change group, Clare Daly, Barry Martin, Mick Wallace…. any others running under that banner?
scan0075

This Week At Irish Election Literature January 29, 2016

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Irish Politics.
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Starting off with some 1916 related leaflets
“Easter 1916” leaflet from Sarah Holland of Sinn Fein
“Remembering The Rising” from Jim O’Callaghan giving a map of relevant locations in Dublin Bay South

Easter Rising Centenary leaflet from Seán Haughey

Then the ‘unusual’ Election Times paper from Kate O’Connell of Fine Gael

The Fine Gael General Election Canvass Guide

“Labour ..What Difference Have We Made” a card for Labour Members

Theres loads more with an index of leaflets from The General Election here

Which TD will get the least number of votes in the General Election? January 28, 2016

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Irish Politics.
19 comments

Which current TD (Sean Barrett aside) contesting the election will get the lowest votes?
Any suggestions?
Peter Mathews and Eamonn Maloney spring to mind……

Galway West Constituency Poll January 28, 2016

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Irish Politics.
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The Galway Advertiser has a Constituency poll for Galway West.
They also have a number of articles on the poll.
The results… quota is 16.66%.
Eamon Ó Cúiv (FF) 16%
Trevor Ó Clochartaigh (SF) 12%
Seán Kyne (FG) 10.5%
Noel Grealish (Ind) 10%
Derek Nolan (Lab) 7.5%
Hildegarde Naughton (FG) 7.5%
John O’Mahony (FG) 7%
Catherine Connolly (Ind) 6.5%
John Connolly (FF) 5%
Fidelma Healy-Eames (Ind) 3.5%
Niall Ó Tuathail (SD) 3.5 %
with the others taking between two to 0.5 per cent support each.

Now the sample was low but I think this shows how close and unpredictable the final few seats are. It also shows what a jump in support of a few per cent could do for Labours chances.

Leinster (minus Dublin) at the next Election…. January 27, 2016

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Irish Politics.
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Following on from last weeks take on the Munster Constituencies a piece on the Leinster Constituencies (minus Dublin). After the Boundary changes, there will be one extra TD for this area .
In 2011 this area elected 42 TD’s returning 21 FG, 7 FF, 8 Lab, 3 SF and 3 Ind ….. at the end of the Dail term between resignations , by-elections and new Parties we had 19 FG, 8 FF, 8 Lab, 3 SF , 1 Renua, 1 Ind and 2 SD

Carlow Kilkenny (5) . Pat Deering, John Paul Phelan (FG) , Ann Phelan (Lab), John McGuinness (FF), Bobby Aylward (FF) are the sitting TDs. All bar Deering are Kilkenny based. All could be returned but I suspect Kathleen Function of Sinn Fein will take a seat. We could also see Jennifer Murnane-O’Connor take one of her colleagues seats. Indeed were she ahead of fellow Carlow candidate Pat Deering Fianna Fail could end up with an unlikely 3 seats. One to watch out for here is Paddy Manning running as a Pro-Life Independent !
I reckon 2 FF, 2 FG and 1 SF

Kildare North (4) : Catherine Murphy (SD), Emmet Stagg (Lab), Bernard Durkan (FG) and Anthony Lawlor (FG) are the sitting TD’s. James Lawless of Fianna Fail is likely to take a seat here (although fielding a second candidate here may have divided the vote), question is whose seat? Stagg will be under pressure from Catherine Murphy and Réada Cronin of Sinn Fein. Still I don’t think he would have bothered standing again if he thought he was going to lose. Lawlor looks more vulnerable.
1 FG, 1 Lab, 1 SD, 1 FF

Kildare South (3): Sean Ó Fearghaíl (FF); Martin Heydon (FG) and Jack Wall (Lab) are the sitting TD’s. Wall is retiring with his son Mark running for Labour. Some of the Southern end was moved to the new Laois constituency. Wall was going to struggle but I think this will further hamper him. Fiona McLoughlin Healy is on the FG ticket with Martin Heydon and Ó Fearghaíl is joined on the FF ticket by Fiona O’Loughlin. Sinn Fein due to internal rivalries are running Patricia Ryan who doesn’t actually live in the constituency. When the votes are cast I suspect Fiona O’Loughlin will unseat Sean Ó Fearghaíl and Martin Heydon will be joined by Fiona McLoughlin Healy. One of the few places to see a gain for FG.
2 FG, 1 FF

Laois (3): Brian Stanley (SF), Sean Fleming (FF), Charlie Flanagan(FG) are the sitting TDs. Possibly the least exciting constituency in the country, hard to predict anything other than the current TD’s being returned.
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF

Longford Westmeath (4) : Willie Penrose (Lab), Robert Troy (FF), James Bannon (FG), Gabrielle McFadden (FG).
With Fianna Fail in dissaray in Longford James Bannon is almost assured of reelection. I actually think Robert Troy may be in danger, aside from the Longford controversy we also have the failure of FF to run an Athlone based candidate which has rankled locally. So a poor FF vote in Longford and former FF man Kevin ‘Boxer’ Moran cleaning up in Athlone (Where he has been very active in the recent flooding) and Troy may be vulnerable. Willie Penrose would have been one of Labours bankers for a seat but the fact that he took a long time to decide whether to contest the election or not isn’t a great sign, nor is the collapse of their vote in the Local Elections and the By-Election. If Penrose loses then Labour are looking at below 7 seats, I think he will just hold on. Paul Hogan of Sinn Fein is an outside chance and I’m not hearing great thing about the chances of Gabrielle McFadden . This could be an entertaining contest , best guess
1 FG, 1 Lab 1 Ind and 1 FF

Louth (5): Gerry Adams (SF), Seamus Kirk (FF), Fergus O’Dowd (FG), Peter Fitzpatrick (FG), Gerard Nash (Lab) are the sitting TD’s with Seamus Kirk retiring. Adams is one of the favourites to get the highest vote in the country, Sinn Fein are also running Imelda Munster. Any kind of decent vote management and they should take a second seat. Declan Breathnach and Emma Coffey are running for FF, I expect that Breathnach should take a seat. O’Dowd should be OK leaving Fitzpatrick and Nash fighting it out with the likes of Mark Deary of The Greens and even an Independent Maeve Yore or Kevin Callan. A lot will depend on where second Labour candidate Mary Morans transfers will go. Will they stay in the Dundalk area transferring to Fitzpatrick, Yore or even Deary or will they go South to Nash. ….
2 FG, 1 FF, 2 SF

Meath East (3) : Regina Doherty (FG) , Helen McEntee (FG) and Dominic Hannigan (Lab) are the sitting TD’s. It was the Meath East By-Election that first signalled Labours demise as they finished behind DDI, Hannigan is surely a goner. Thomas Byrne of Fianna Fail should regain the seat he lost in 2007. Sinn Feins Darren O’Rourke is probably the main challenger to the sitting Fine Gael TDs with others such as Ben Gilroy (DDINCM), ex FFer Sharon Keoghan(Ind) and Seamus McDonagh (WP) . In the end I expect the two FG TDs to hold on.
2 FG, 1 FF

Meath West (3): Ray Butler (FG), Damien English (FG), Peadar Tóibín (SF) are the sitting TD’s. English and Tóibín should be accompanied back to Leinster House by Fianna Fail candidate Shane Cassells with Ray Butler losing out. Hard to see anyone else here with the potential to take a seat.
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF

Offaly (3) : Marcella Corcoran Kennedy (FG) and Barry Cowen (FF) are the sitting TD’s. With Laois-Offaly split a part of North Tipperary has been added to Offaly to make up this new constituency. Barry Cowen should sail home. Given she is the only FG candidate Marcella Corcoran Kennedy should really hold on. The last seat is tough to call, John Leahy is probably Renuas best chance of them gaining a seat, it will be interesting to see if the brand helps or hinders him. Former FFer John Foley is in with a chance while Fianna Fails second candidate former PD Eddie Fitzpatrick may benefit if he’s ahead of Foley as they both have Edenderry bases. Carol Nolan of Sinn Fein will more than likely come up short. Independent Joe Hannigan is the only candidate based in the Tipperary part of the constituency. In the end I suspect Leahy may win.
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Renua

Wexford (5); Mick Wallace (Ind), John Browne (FF), Brendan Howlin (Lab), Liam Twomey(FG), Paul Kehoe (FG) are the sitting TDs. Liam Twomey and John Browne are stepping down. Wallace will surely get in, Kehoe should too. Theres at least one FF seat with James Browne (son of John), Malcolm Byrne and Aoife Byrne running for them. Browne would be favourite. Fine Gael will also have Michael D’Arcy and Julie Hogan running. D’Arcy would have a better chance, however where Twomey was based South of Wexford Town, D’Arcy is up in Gorey.
Howlin should get in, but Labour didn’t set the world alight in the Local Elections here. The fact that they couldn’t even get Martin Storey elected in an 8 seater is one that indicates that Howling could be in trouble. One thing going for him is that although there are other Wexford Town based candidates he would be by far the strongest of them. Sinn Fein’s Johny Mythen and Independent Ger Carthy are two others in with a shout.
1 FF (Browne) , 1 FG (Kehoe), 1 Ind (Wallace) , 1 Lab, 1 SF

Wicklow (5) : Anne Ferris (Lab), Andrew Doyle (FG), Simon Harris (FG), Billy Timmons (Renua), Stephen Donnelly (SD) are the outgoing TDs. I expect Johny Brady of Sinn Fein to take a seat with Anne Ferris losing out. Harris should be returned as should Andrew Doyle. Fianna Fail are running Jennifer Cuffe and Pat Casey. Cuffe is a Councillor for Killiney-Shankill now living in Greystones and Laragh based Casey , a former Independent could be a bit too isolated in the West of the County. Arklow based Pauric Hyland was due to be added to the ticket but it caused such a fuss he withdrew. Former Fianna Fail TD Joe Behan is running as an Independent. Casey will be in with a chance but it would be the seat of Donnelly or Timmons that he would be targeting. As for Timmons , his record and the ‘West Wicklow needs a TD’ message will surely attract votes. FG have Dunlavin based Averil Cronin running in the hope of taking some votes from him. In the end I suspect Donnelly will get enough of the votes Labour got in 2011 to get over the line.
2 FG, 1 SD, 1 SF, 1 Renua

Total FG 16, FF 11, Lab 3, SF 7, Ind 2, Renua 2, SD 2

On a really good day for FG here they could end up on 21 seats. A bad day 13.
On a really good day for FF here they could end up on 15 seats. A bad day 9.
A brilliant day for Labour would give them 5 seats. A really bad day Stagg, Howlin and Penrose all lose out.
If it’s Sinn Feins day they could end up with 10 here. If it’s not 5 seats.
If people turn to Independent candidates there may be 5 elected here.
Renua could end up with nothing, Stephen Donnelly could lose out for The Social Democrats.

“Sponsored Content” January 20, 2016

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Irish Politics.
7 comments

From The Sligo Champion a lovely piece on Labours Susan O’Keefe ….. at the bottom right if you look hard enough you’ll see ‘SPONSORED CONTENT’ …..
Probably more effective than a real ad, interesting to see if other Labour candidates follow this tack. Anyone seen other examples?
9d-T8MvX

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