This Week At Irish Election Literature August 28, 2015Posted by irishelectionliterature in Irish Politics.
From the 1991 Local Elections a leaflet from Dominic Noonan of The Christian Principles Party who was running in Clontarf
A new Ceann Comhairle ? August 27, 2015Posted by irishelectionliterature in Irish Politics.
More rumours circulating this week that Ceann Comhairle Sean Barrett will step down and announce that he won’t be standing at the next election. It of course makes Dun Laoghaire a bit less fascinating but who would fill the job?
There are plenty of Fine Gael TD’s that would fit the bill……
Jerry Buttimer is one who may struggle and well an added bonus to him getting the CC position would be the possibility of taking either Michael Martin or Michael McGrath out in a new 3 seat Cork South Central.
Catherine Byrne in Dublin South Central could well struggle and has sat in the chair a number of times. She would also be the first female Ceann Comhairle which may appeal.
Regina Doherty in Meath East is another loyal servant and again would be the first female Ceann Comhairle. One of The FG seats here in Meath East is in danger.
Although supposedly not standing again, Dinny McGinley is another name connected with the post. Donegal would be some fight for the remaining four seats then.
Olivia Mitchell (another candidate for first female Ceann Comhairle) or even Alan Shatter who will both be running in the three seat Dublin Rathdown.
Andrew Doyle in Wicklow where he will be under pressure from Billy Timmons.
Bernard Durkan in Kildare North is another possibility.
Fergus O’Dowd in Louth although unlikely.
Michael Ring in Mayo where FG will have three TDs running in the new four seater Mayo constituency. Enda making sure his own seat in alright?
John Perry in Sligo Leitrim is another name that could be in with a shout. FG have yet to have a Leitrim candidate in the four seater , so this may suit.
Tom Hayes in Tipperary where there will already be one less seat. Could change what was previously 6 seats into an incredibly competitive four seater.
Paudie Coffey in Waterford could be another name in line , although he hasn’t been a TD for that long.
……………….Or could it be a Labour TD in exchange for an early election?
Labour and the number Seven August 24, 2015Posted by irishelectionliterature in Irish Politics, Uncategorized.
I can’t see much of a turnaround in Labours fortunes ,The polls aren’t looking good, indeed Labours figures are going downwards. They won’t be wiped out but I think they will have difficulty getting to 7 seats.
Only parliamentary groups with seven members or more have full speaking rights, I can easily see Labour having to be part of the next Dail Technical group.
This in turn will probably make the climb back all the harder for them. Can you imagine the ignominy for Labour to have to share speaking time with all those they berated from The Government benches. God knows the Technical Group could be massive and include an array of parties and individuals. (Should they both be reelected …) Joan Burton getting trapped in the benches beside Paul Murphy!
Of course if a Left Alliance is broader than PBPA and the AAA then there is a decent possibility of that group getting seven or more seats and have speaking rights. Although things may have died down recently I’d assume The Social Democrats could get the seven seats too.
Speaking Rights , as well as some decent speakers, helped Sinn Fein appear to be the main party of opposition in the current Dail. That exposure has certainly been a part of their rise. Were parties/Alliances other than Labour to have speaking rights it would surely give those groups a boost also.
Its just one small subplot for the next election that is well worth watching.
1965 Fianna Fail Election Broadcast August 19, 2015Posted by irishelectionliterature in Irish Politics.
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This Week At Irish Election Literature August 14, 2015Posted by irishelectionliterature in Irish Politics.
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From 1991 a leaflet from the ‘Clean-up Dublin Now Group’ advertising a prayerful walk from The Pro-Cathedral to the Central Bank on Dame Street to protest against all sorts of ‘Moral Disintegration’ that Dublins City of Culture had seen rise.
Policy or Coalition Options? August 12, 2015Posted by irishelectionliterature in Irish Politics.
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It’s a strange time in Irish Politics the pattern of the two and half party system appears to be over for the foreseeable future and instead of the usual options of FF alone or with a small party or Fine Gael and Labour we have multiple possibilities.
After each poll of the past year or so we consider government formation. We look , analyse , consider what do the numbers add up to and try and figure out what combination could form a government. There have been times where a combination of Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein have come close, then maybe Fine Gael and Fianna Fail together , maybe another combination altogether.
The amount of space devoted to (especially Fianna Fail) who will go into coalition with each other seems endless. We have stories of this and that FF figure saying Yes to Sinn Fein ,the party leader saying they won’t go into government with Sinn Fein. Then there have been a number of senior Fianna Fail party figures such as Barry Cowen and Dara Calleary that have said they won’t go into a government were there a FF/FG coalition. Each time something is ruled out I think of Trevor Sargent stepping down as Green Party leader as he had committed not to go into government with Fianna Fail.
Then when a story like the one of Michael McGrath not ruling out coalition with Sinn Fein comes along what happens only anti Fianna Fail articles appear from Sinn Fein. All the while Fine Gael run a social media campaign against them both trying to form the narrative of the next election being an FF/SF coalition versus the present government and (suprise suprise) we learn too that Renua would be prepared to join FG in government.
The trouble for some of those theories is that were FF to be in a position to be part of the next government then it is their membership that will have the final say in a Special Ard Fheis if they go into coalition or not….. I may be wrong but I don’t see them voting for a coalition with Fine Gael. …..
We also get the news recently that Fine Gael is divided over coalition with Fianna Fáil.
I am amused too when I hear “going into Coalition with FF/SF/FG would be a red line issue.I’d hand the membership card back”. The red line issues are not Homelessness, not Irish Water, not unemployment, they’re all OK, its just coalition with certain parties.
It’s argued that a grand coalition between the two parties would spell death for both. In Government together their differences would more likely be personality rather than policy Both FF and FG members see huge differences between both parties, yet the majority of the public would see them both as similar. Were FF to reject coalition with FG and push the country into a state of political instability would the electorate forgive them?
It has been suggested that FF may support a minority Fine Gael Government in a ‘Tallaght Strategy’ type arrangement, it probably wouldn’t last too long. The funny thing being that the first three years of the current government FF in opposition were almost Tallaght Strategyesque as Fine Gael and Labour implemented the Fianna Fail Lenihan/Troika plan.
So are we going to get a campaign dominated by policy or coalition options? …..
…The coalition options that we’ll only know after the election and we have the numbers.
What of the AAA? August 7, 2015Posted by doctorfive in Irish Politics.
From today‘s oifigiuil (page 2)
Is this some technical / procedural lapse or can anyone fill us in?
This Week At Irish Election Literature August 7, 2015Posted by irishelectionliterature in Irish Politics.
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From the 1989 General Election ‘People Come First With Joan Burton’
Also from 1989 a leaflet from Geraldine Harney of the Progressive Democrats
And finally a lovely piece on 90’s Roscommon Record label Wednesday Works
Where can The Left win seats? August 5, 2015Posted by irishelectionliterature in Irish Politics, The Left.
Looking forward to the next General Election one of the disappointments for many on the Left who are non aligned (and I presume some in the SWP and SP too) has been the lack to date of at least an Electoral Alliance. The Right2Water conferences have been one path but come election time we are likely to see Sinn Fein, AAA, PBP, WP and ballot papers cluttered with all sorts of Anti Water charges small parties , groups and Independents. The sad fact too is that in many areas of Dublin there will probably be twice as many ‘anti establishment’ candidates as those from FF, FG, Renua, Labour, The Greens and ‘genepool’ Independents.
On the bright side it looks as if there will be Left candidates in almost all of the Country, probably giving more as in 1989 when 28 of the 43 constituencies had far left candidates. There are 13 constituencies at present that don’t have a Left candidate, I’d imagine that to be in single figures by the time the election comes along. That’s a huge advance. PBP and The AAA will probably both be targeting the 2% threshold for public funding also.
Of the Current Left TD’s Joe Higgins is retiring , Paul Murphy, Ruth Coppinger, Clare Daly, Seamus Healy, Joan Collins and Richard Boyd Barrett look to all have decent chances of reelection (although Collins may be taken out by Brid Smith and others if Sinn Fein have a good day). After all the years of Austerity what other prospects of seats do the far left have?
Other than Dublin Bay South and Dublin Rathdown there really should be some hope of a left seat in each Dublin constituency (and possibly 2 in Dublin SC).
Dublin Fingal: Clare Daly should get in. Is there room for Barry Martin of PBP or an AAA candidate to be elected here too?
Dublin Central: Cieran Perry could be in with a shout, although has lost some of his base in the redraw.
Dublin North West: Looks as if SF may be too strong here.
Dublin Bay North: John Lyons of PBP has an outside chance in what will be a crazy constituency with at least 10 candidates (including Tommy Broughan and Finian McGrath who will take some potential left vote)
Dublin Mid West: Gino Kenny a possibility here.
Dublin West: Ruth Coppinger should hold on. Will there be a second AAA candidate?
Dublin South Central: Big question is if Joan Collins and Brid Smith can both get elected
Dublin South West: Paul Murphy should hold on.
Dun Laoghaire: Richard Boyd-Barrett will have a fight on his hands to hold on, but Gilmores retirement should help him.
Outside of Dublin, it looks as if there will be a record number of AAA and PBP candidates but other than Mick Barry and outside chance Cian Prendiville are there other possibilities of Left seats? The likes of Joanne Pender and Brendan Young would have an outside chance but for Catherine Murphy also being in Kildare North.
After all the years of Austerity what other prospects of seats do the far left have?
Dublin South West July 31, 2015Posted by irishelectionliterature in Irish Politics.
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A fascinating constituency (aren’t they all!). The current TDs are Paul Murphy (AAA), Sean Crowe (SF), Pat Rabbitte and Eamon Maloney (Lab). Both Labour TD’s are retiring and we also have an extra seat here with the addition of part of Templeogue and Rathfarnham from Dublin South. None of the current Dublin South TDs have moved constituency. So we will have just two sitting TD’s contesting.
The line up so far is Colm Brophy and Anne-Marie Dermody for Fine Gael, John Lahart of Fianna Fail, Pamela Kearns and Mick Duff for Labour, Sarah Holland and Sean Crowe of Sinn Fein, Francis Noel Duffy of The Greens, Ronan McMahon of Renua, Katherine Zappone Ind, Deirdre O’Donovan Ind (Ross Alliance), Declan Burke IND and I’d imagine Nicky Coules of PBP will probably run too. There may be some others yet to surface.
I’d expect Sean Crowe and Paul Murphy to get in with one of the Fine Gael candidates. The final two seats could go anyway.
John Lahart of Fianna Fail is popular in Rathfarnham and has a profile after the by-election. His problem may be that Holland, Dermody, Duffy, O’Donovan, Brophy and to an extent McMahon and Kearns are all within a few miles of each other.Still if he stays ahead of Labour and the second FG candidate he could be in with a good chance.
Katherine Zappone is unproven electorally but has a sizeable team and is out canvassing already. Her team would have learnt a lot from the Marriage Equality Campaign. She may well get a good portion of the former Labour vote in the middle class areas , whilst her work in An Cosain will reflect well on her in certain parts of Tallaght. Like most Independents she will also be transfer friendly. Will be a possible destination for former many Labour voters.
Both Rabbitte and Maloney retiring as well as the selection of two candidates would lead me to believe that in a constituency where Labour got 36% in 2011 …. they will struggle here to be in with a chance. They also won’t be getting too many transfers. Amazingly I think both seats are gone.
Deirdre O’Donovan polled well in the Locals and it will be interesting to see if being part of The Independents Alliance will help her much. Again if she gets a decent first preference the lack of party logo beside her name could keep her in the mix.
Ronan McMahon of Renua unlikely to make it unless something happens the Renua brand between now and the Election. He would probably have done better staying ‘Independent’.
Francis Noel Duffy of The Greens won’t win a seat , nor will Declan Burke. Nicky Coules will poll OK but again won’t be in the mix.
A lot will also depend on how the Fine Gael vote is split. Both polled similarly in the Local Elections and Cait Keane didn’t exactly set the world alight in the By-Election. I have an inkling that Dermody will poll better of the two. Brophy will also be sharing the Templeogue area with Ronan McMahon.
Then we have Sarah Holland of Sinn Fein who is the current Mayor of South County Dublin. She will poll well and it will be interesting to see how SInn Fein will split the constituency for vote management. If there is a surge in the SF vote she is in with a chance.
The way I see it panning out is probably 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 AAA, 1 Ind and 1 FF