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Dun Laoghaire …. February 4, 2011

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Uncategorized.
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Will do a few of these along with wbs during the course of the campaign….

Dun Laoghaire 4 seats (down from 5)

So Far the candidates are as follows
Fianna Fail -Barry Andrews*, Mary Hanafin*
Fine Gael -Sean Barrett, Mary Mitchell-O’Connor
Labour -Eamon Gilmore, Ivana Bacik
Green Party – Ciaran Cuffe
PBPA /United Left Alliance -Richard Boyd-Barrett
Direct Democracy Ireland -Raymond Whitehead
Independent- Victor Boyhan

One of the most fascinating constituencies of this election with five TDs going for four seats and 7 or 8 candidates in contention.
So what of the sitting TDs?
Fine Gaels Sean Barrett should sail home as should Labour Leader Eamon Gilmore.
In 2007 The Green Partys Ciaran Cuffe relied on transfers to overtake Richard Boyd-Barrett and win the final seat. Those transfers will no longer be there and undoubtedly his first preference vote will suffer too. So Cuffe is a goner.Where his transfers go will have quite a bearing on the final outcome.
From the outside the decisions of Mary Hanafin or Barry Andrews not to jump ship to Dublin South looks odd yet I think they  both reckon that it will be a personal rather than a party vote that will potentially make the difference. For Andrews the move would have meant throwing away a dynasties worth of work (I know Niall Andrews was in Dublin South but hes gone a long time).
Tipperary native, Mary Hanafin having established herself in the constituency was unlikely to throw it away especially after previous electoral defeats in Dublin South East and Rathmines in Local Elections. What was considered part of her hinterland moved to Dublin South, but a lot of this area would consist of previously expensive new apartments and houses that have fallen steeply in value.
Its inconcieveable that Fianna Fail would hold on to the two seats and given that the campaigns will have to be of a personal nature the likelihood is that both may miss out. Hanafins actions in the leadership crisis hasn’t done her any favours either.

In the 2009 Local Elections between Blackrock, Dun Laoghaire and Ballybrack Fianna Fail polled less than The People Before Profit Alliance candidates (even though there was no PBP candidate in Blackrock). Things were so bad for Fianna Fail in the constituency back then, that I even have letters sent from the parents of a candidate to neighbours begging for a vote for their son. That was 2009, when compared to their current position Fianna Fail were riding high in the polls.

Labours decision to run Ivana Bacik as Eamon Gilmores running mate looks to be a good decision. She will get some of the liberal vote Fiona O’Malley got (and she did despite being a PD). She will appeal to some ex Green voters and may even tempt  some of the more liberal Fine Gael vote.
Fine Gaels Mary Mitchell O’Connor isn’t the strongest of candidates and the Fine Gael vote may well be very unbalanced with Barrett flying home on the first count.
Back then to Boyd-Barrett, polled brilliantly in the locals, has been active on the ground from everything to bus routes and The Connolly Shoes dispute. I gather too that he is being recieved well when canvassing. Add in the lack of  Sinn Fein candidate (to date Sinn Fein have no candidate here) and Boyd-Barrett has the Left vote to himself.
Of the others Boyhan will poll well but won’t be in the mix.

I reckon……
Gilmore, Barrett, Boyd-Barrett and a final seat showdown with Bacik or Mitchell-O’Connor benefitting from each others transfers and edging Fianna Fails Andrews out.

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