A general election this year or next? And what about the political landscape?

The Irish Times yesterday was very sure that there will be an early general election. Pat Leahy in that paper wrote:

 

A better than expected performance for the Government parties in the local elections has led to pressure on Taoiseach Simon Harris to call an early general election.

Mr Harris insisted plans for the Government to serve a full term until next March were unchanged by the election results. But the strong showing by the Coalition parties, and a dramatic collapse in support for Sinn Féin, has led to growing expectations across the political spectrum that an autumn election is now on the cards.

As results rolled in from around the country confirming a strong showing for the Government parties on Sunday, Fine Gael backbencher Michael Ring called for an early election, while outgoing Green MEP Ciarán Cuffe said an election this year was “inevitable”. Behind the scenes there was intense speculation that Sinn Féin’s weakness opened the door for the Government to bid for re-election.

“My position in relation to the next general election remains the same,” Mr Harris told The Irish Times Inside Politics podcast, “I think the Government going full term is important and I look forward to continuing that”.

Could he walk back from that statement? Of course he could, though by early, note that we are looking at Autumn, but he may not have to.

There are clear advantages to going early – not so much that Fine Gael is doing so much better, it still has lost seats at this local election, and while it’s gained a few points in polls under Harris it isn’t exactly taking off into the stratosphere. More that Sinn Féin is doing worse. Now it’s not being doing so well for a long time and the opportunities for it to construct a government the far side of an election have seemed dim. But that’s not really the point. For Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, a weaker Sinn Féin almost certainly makes life easier for them.

Put aside all the sturm and drang of the far right. They’re not going to be a factor in the next Dáil short of catastrophe. What we seem to be seeing is a reset of the political clock to 2016. Fine Gael out ahead of Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin possibly slipping behind Fine Gael. There are differences too. The left in all its wonders and glory is in a static position at best. Has that Social Democrats bounce petered out somewhat. Sure there are gains but, rather like Sinn Féin, lower than hoped for.

Labour, remarkably, is holding steady. Sol-PBP likewise. Being generous, roping the Green Party in to that mix, they’re much reduced. We’ve a handful of independent left TDs. And unlike 2016 there’s no particular campaigns out there that the left can claim as their own. Independents and Others are of a sort, overall, to be more congenial to Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.

On paper, Fine Gael might look at all that and think that not merely has the political landscape changed for the better with Sinn Féin’s decline, but also their opportunities for constructing an administration are much more rosy. It’s not all sunshine. Neither of the conservative parties is where they were in 2020. But they have that most essential of qualities in political life, options. 

One almost feels that at this point they’d happily run down the clock because they don’t believe that Sinn Féin is going to be able to repair the damage that has been inflicted upon it.

The next round of polling, post-local and European elections, will tell us much.