The Cedar Lounge Revolution

‘Women in the home’ referendum delayed until when?  August 31, 2023

Isn’t this telling? Reports that:

There is a growing expectation in Government a referendum to replace the article of the Constitution that refers to women’s “duties in the home” will not go ahead in November as promised.

Difficulties in agreeing a wording for a replacement article and fears a referendum campaign could lead to divisive debates about the definition of the family and gender issues have led to a growing expectation the vote will be postponed.

The November referendum was promised by the Government earlier this year, following recommendations from a Citizens’ Assembly on gender equality. In July, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said that it was still the Government’s intention to proceed with the vote, a view echoed last week by Minister for Housing, Darragh O’Brien.

And:

A group of senior officials who are working on producing a proposed text for the constitutional amendment have yet to reach agreement. Sources say their discussions have prompted a growing awareness of the potential political pitfalls in proposing changes to a constitutional article that senior officials and politicians agree should change but are not sure to what.

It is understood there are fears that questions could arise during the campaign about the definition of a family and gender issues, leaving ministers facing questions to which they do not have clear answers.

“We will have to be able to answer the question ‘What is a family?’” one politician said. It was not yet clear, he added, that the Government had an answer.

Senior sources, however, are wary that the referendum campaign could become a debate about gender, prompting questions about transgender issues that have proved highly contentious elsewhere.

If anything this demonstrates the manner in which a very specific sort of toxicity around culture wars is creeping in. Long thought that this state was fortunate in moving ahead on a range of issues in the past ten years where in other states legislation has been stymied. It hasn’t prevented phenomena such as the so-called ‘protests’ around libraries but it has largely appeared to take the heat out of matters where in other places polities appear to be consumed by such issues (although let’s not ignore a small but voluble presence in parts of the media apparently intent on fostering such divisiveness).

And it’s not as if there’s no need for a referendum.

Here is the Article:

2     1° In particular, the State recognises that by her life within the home, woman gives to the State a support without which the common good cannot be achieved.
		2° The State shall, therefore, endeavour to ensure that mothers shall not be obliged by economic necessity to engage in labour to the neglect of their duties in the home.

Consider this from RTÉ earlier in August:

Director of the National Women’s Council, Orla O’Connor, said: “Our Constitution, our foundational document, contains restrictive language on women’s role in society. It is outdated and carries a legacy of the mistreatment of women up to today.

“It’s important this is amended so that it reflects the value of care and everyone’s role in care right across our society.

“NWC is looking forward to a national conversation on these issues but unless wording is published soon, we’re concerned about the proposed timeline.”

SIPTU said there are up to 100,000 paid carers in Ireland and their work needs to be recognised.

Their Deputy General Secretary Ethel Buckley said: “A national conversation on issues as significant as women’s role in society, the value and recognition of care both inside the home and in the wider community, and the definition of family, deserves time.”

Catherine Cox, Head of Communications and Policy at Family Carers Ireland, said:

“We believe this referendum, and in particular, the replacement of Article 41.2 with wording that recognises the societal value of care in the home and wider community and obliges the State to take measures to support family carers, is a milestone moment in our history and therefore are calling for the urgent publication of the wording.”

According to One Family there are families living in Ireland now who are not recognised in our Constitution.

Chief Executive Karen Kiernan said: “the Government owes it to them to publish a wording as soon as possible before the referendum.”

Labour leader Ivana Bacik it is unacceptable to see “delay and ambiguity” from the Government and said if there has been a change of plan “the least that the Taoiseach can do is to let that be known, and to provide clarity on when this important referendum is to take place.”

I saw a suggestion that perhaps one way forward was simply to delete 41.2 in its entirety. Wonder if that’s a position that might gain support.  

As for polling on the issue – anyone know of any? 

Business friendly August 31, 2023

From OpenDemocracy:

Senior Labour figures accepted valuable gifts from Google in the days before abandoning a plan to tax digital giants more, openDemocracy can reveal.

Labour’s shadow business secretary Jonathan Reynolds, his senior parliamentary assistant (who is his wife), and Keir Starmer’s political director all attended Glastonbury festival in June as guests of YouTube, which is owned by Google. Including accommodation and ‘hospitality’, Reynolds estimates his Glastonbury package for two was worth £3,377 – significantly more than the cost of two regular tickets, which were £335 each.

The next day, reports emerged that Labour had ditched its proposal to hike tax on digital businesses like Google.

The Digital Services Tax, introduced in 2020, is a 2% levy on the UK income of online companies like search engines and social media platforms. In August last year, Reynolds and his shadow chancellor colleague Rachel Reeves had called for an increase in the tax to 10%, saying the income would be used to fund a slash in tax for small businesses.

Post-truth conflict August 31, 2023

The Russian management of news in the past couple of years has been, different. From their ‘special operation’ (aka invasion of Ukraine) onwards it’s been clear that they’ve attempted to manipulate the narrative in various ways. They’ve been fairly uninterested in the contradictions though, which is telling. Some have suggested that one of the reasons for Prizgozhin’s demise was his untypical (of the administration)willingness to say the truth about the supposed motivations for the invasion when he noted in March: 

Prigozhin said Moscow is fighting “exclusively with Ukrainians” equipped with NATO-provided equipment and some “Russophobic” mercenaries who voluntarily support Ukraine – but not NATO itself, said the ISW on Thursday. He expressed doubt about “denazification” objectives in Ukraine, unsure “Nazis” were in the country, while “effectively rejecting” the long-standing Kremlin claims that Russia needs to defend itself against a NATO threat. 

“It is ridiculous to think” that Russian officials did not know NATO would come to Kyiv’s aid, the ISW quoted Prigozhin as saying.

In June he noted:

The Wagner head, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has accused Moscow’s leadership of lying to the public about the justifications for invading Ukraine, in the latest sign of conflict between Vladimir Putin’s government and one of his most important allies.

In an explosive 30-minute video posted on his Telegram channel, Prigozhin dismissed Moscow’s claims that Kyiv was planning to launch an offensive on the Russian-controlled territories in eastern Ukraine in February 2022.

“There was nothing extraordinary happening on the eve of February 24,” Prigozhin said.

“The ministry of defence is trying to deceive the public and the president and spin the story that there was insane levels of aggression from the Ukrainian side and that they were going to attack us together with the whole Nato block,” the Wagner head said.

As also noted:

“Shoigu killed thousands of the most combat-ready Russian soldiers in the first days of the war,” Prigozhin said, adding that the invasion began even as Zelenskyy and Ukraine were eager for peace. The Ukrainian leader “was ready for agreements. All that needed to be done was to get off Mount Olympus and negotiate with him.”

Be all that as it may, here’s the latest example of the absurdity of the media manipulation:

Ukrainian drones struck targets in at least six regions deep within Russia, including an airfield where they destroyed military transport planes, in one of the broadest volleys yet of Kyiv’s campaign to turn the tables on Moscow.

Russian officials described attacks on targets in the Pskov, Bryansk, Kaluga, Orlov, Ryazan and Moscow regions.

In Pskov, in northern Russia – more than 600km from Ukraine – a huge fire erupted at a military airfield.

Russia’s TASS news agency reported at least four giant Il-76 transport planes were damaged, two of which had “burst into flames”.

But, as RTÉ reports:

Moscow claimed to have thwarted all the attacks on Russia.

Russia typically describes all Ukrainian drone strikes as unsuccessful, regardless of the damage on the ground.

 

So there’s aircraft on fire and/or destroyed by Ukrainian drones, admitted by TASS, and yet, ‘Russia typically describes all Ukrainian drone strikes as unsuccessful’. I wonder about regimes which habitually say black is white and how they can possibly retain credibility and ultimately authority. 

Backroom political operators August 31, 2023

It was funny listening to a recent Irish Times podcast on Inside Sinn Féin which fairly breathlessly asked the questions:

Who are Sinn Féin and what really makes the party different, if anything? Who holds real sway within the party? What role do activists play, and who are its up-and-coming stars?  

Anyhow, much was made of the fact that back room operators, untouched by the electorate or election, were significantly influential in Sinn Féin and fingers pointed at the RHI controversy. Though Freya McClements pushed back somewhat against that narrative noting the nature of the Executive and participation of all the large parties there. 

Then close to the end of the podcast there was talk about candidate selection and the need to add additional candidates. Pat Leahy argued:

I think that’s much less of a problem than…other parties given the party’s culture of discipline… now sitting TDs tend not to be widely enthusiastic about running mates imposed on them by headquarters, but that’s what’s going to happen really. 

And I was wondering, who are all these folk in party headquarters, and Leahy was clearly talking about all parties, and who elected them and why isn’t that a problem too? And if they’re doing that around electoral policy who is to say they don’t influence policy formation and implementation? 

Years ago I was, only on paper, a back-room operator. Actually, not an operator and not really back-rooms, but I was on a couple of committees in Democratic Left and briefly on one in the WP. I wasn’t elected by anyone. How seriously did  the parties take me or those like me involved in same. Not very was my impression. On certain levels that wasn’t so great, and in other respects perhaps rightly so. But they clearly did take some people who weren’t elected, political advisors, very seriously indeed.

How this substantively differs in the case of SF from other parties is not entirely clear. How one even defines this I’m unsure. If a Green Party Minister has an advisor who they take information and guidance from on an issue how do we delineate that which is unreasonable from that which is reasonable? It’s so nebulous that it seems near enough impossible to determine what is in or out of bounds.

Party platforms, or policies arrived democratically within parties, don’t seem to present the same issues for the media commentariat, at least to judge from how smaller parties have been urged to disregard them when it comes to government formation. Indeed often it is difficult to see precisely what are the legitimising aspects of political activity other than being a large party (bar the obvious exception).

Reactionaries… August 30, 2023

From RTÉ, a most interesting report:

In a question-and-answer session, a Portuguese Jesuit said that during a sabbatical in the United States, he was saddened that many Catholics, including some bishops, were hostile to the pope’s leadership.

“You have seen that in the United States the situation is not easy: there is a very strong reactionary attitude. It is organised and shapes the way people belong, even emotionally,” the pope responded.

Religious conservatives in the United States often have aligned with politically conservative media outlets to criticise the pope over a host of issues such as climate change, immigration, social justice, his calls for gun control and his opposition to the death penalty.

“You have been to the United States and you say you have felt a climate of closure. Yes, this climate can be experienced in some situations,” Pope Francis said.

“And there, one can lose the true tradition and turn to ideologies for support. In other words, ideology replaces faith, membership in a sector of the church replaces membership in the church,” he said.

Mentioned before I was in Spain a while back and in a church on a frieze depicting significant events in the history of the Catholic Church was struck by the fact the current Pope’s face had been partly scratched out by someone. 

Perhaps to indicate the sort of thing that the Pope appears to be talking about:

One of the pope’s fiercest American critics, Rome-based Cardinal Raymond Burke, wrote in an introduction for a recent book that a meeting of bishops called by Pope Francis for this October to help chart the future of the Church risked sowing “confusion and error and division”.

Burke’s views make for interesting reading. 

Electoral Commission Report August 30, 2023

Available to download here

Not as many changes as I thought there would be. In Dublin, a few new constituencies with Dublin Fingal now two 3 seaters; extra seats for Dublin Rathdown, Dublin Mid West and Dublin West.

There’s a new Wicklow/Wexford constituency.

I can’t see that many TDs being totally upset by the changes. Anyway, lots to digest.

What you want to say – 30th August 2023 August 30, 2023

As always, following on Dr. X’s suggestion, it’s all yours, “announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose”, feel free.

Ask a question about the Electoral Commission review…  August 29, 2023

Only days away from the release of the latest Electoral Commission review. The media is getting excite, but in fairness this is a big one which promises changes and detail to discuss for days, months, years ahead. Last week I noted that some have said that Sinn Féin is likely to benefit from the More here, as they say.

Dr Theresa Reidy, a senior lecturer in the department of government and politics at University College Cork, said the beneficiaries of the increased numbers would be parties that “have the wind in their sails”.

Other parties with stable or shrinking support bases “might save one or two seats that they would otherwise lose” when there are more Dáil seats, she said. She told The Irish Times: “Sinn Féin is going into this contest with momentum and that means that if there are extra seats available, they are in a very strong position to be able to pick up those extra seats.”

She added that the extra seats could help Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael “because incumbency matters a great deal in the Irish system… if you’re already a TD and the number of TDs increases, you have a better chance of holding on.”

And:

David Farrell, a professor of politics at University College Dublin said the review would mean the Dáil would be “the largest it has ever been”….He said the problem for smaller parties on the left, such as Labour and the Social Democrats, had less to do with the boundary commission process and more to do with he fact that Sinn Féin was more likely to be “more adventurous in how many candidates they put forward and that will just swallow” the smaller parties.

On the fortunes of the larger parties, if the number of seats is increased by around 20, he said: “On balance, one would expect that of those three parties Sinn Féin would be the most likely to be beneficiaries.”

Of course all politics is local. Farrell argues that smaller parties might benefit, or a farmers party. And in each constituency the contest will be impacted by dynamics specific to there. 

There’s a diagram accompanying the article, and though it’s wrong about Dublin South Central (where it shows, incorrectly, two PBP TDs), it’s quite useful in showing constituency breakdown by parties. What I find particularly striking are the number of regional/rural constituencies that have two independent TDs (granted Clare, for example, has two because one was SF and now is Independent). A rural party? There’s already a rural party albeit not quite of that name.

Public transport in England August 29, 2023

I was trying this Summer to work out how to get from Holyhead to the English Midlands. The intention was to go by rail, but subsequently the strikes made that impossible. I fully support the strikes – but even looking at trains in the first place before the dates made that a non-starter, was an extraordinary challenge.

Bad enough that British Rail was privatised but the particular form of privatisation of railways in Britain is beyond belief. Multiple operators seem to run on tracks providing what is laughably termed ‘services’. Rather than a single unified system that has clarity one has to look at different train companies, the different places they stop or change at and so on. It’s designed as if to dissuade people from travelling by train. Have I mentioned the prices of tickets?

Anyhow. What about buses? This too is a system of such complexity that after an afternoon I gave up. I still can’t work out if it’s possible to get from Holyhead to Chester by ‘local’ bus. The thought strikes that perhaps this is deliberate, but to what purpose? More traffic?

Speaking of which it was the internal combustion engine that eventually was to power the trip across much of Wales and England. And there, well, there’s one hell of a lot of cars in England and Wales. No news to most of us there. And there there were tailbacks, delays and more. Services (as in places to stop and get a cup of tea or whatever) of variable quality and significant expense.

Could have flown, but part of the point of all this was to cut down on that and to avoid cars where possible. Didn’t work.

John Harris in the Guardian recently had a good piece on the dismantling of the bus system in England.

Amid all the resulting noise, a huge story about transport goes almost unnoticed: the ongoing decline of buses, and how poorly prepared for the future it leaves us. After nearly 40 years of deregulation and outsourcing, and nearly 15 years of the cuts and shortfalls imposed by Whitehall on local authorities, the mode of travel that still accounts for 69% of journeys by public transport is in an ever-worsening mess. The relevant statistics are stark, and sad: in 2002, for example, there were just over 18,000 numbered bus routes in England, but that number has since fallen to just under 11,000, with more cuts seemingly arriving every month. There are few symbols of the literal privatisation of everyday life more potent than unloved bus shelters adorned with emptying timetables, now such a fixed part of the average British streetscape that their fading away is taken pretty much for granted.

And I’m not surprised to read the idea that bus systems in the UK are ‘broken’. 

The relevant news stories are everywhere. The people in charge of the South Yorkshire mayoral combined authority – which includes Sheffield, Barnsley, Doncaster and Rotherham – are warning of “horrible” cuts, which will mean increases to fares for children and young people. In Kent, where the county council says its bus system is “broken”, there will soon be cuts to services in such places as Maidstone, Folkestone and Ashford. Last month, 20 routes in County Durham and Darlington were scrapped, amid claims that the bus company Arriva was holding local councils “to ransom”. There are similar stories in Stoke-on-Trent, Gloucestershire, Leicestershire, Essex and more. Dig into many of them, and you alight on a truth that all the talk about passionate “motorists” rather ignores: the fact that many car owners are not avid petrolheads, but people forced to drive by the paucity of public transport.

If it’s bad under the Tories, don’t expect much change under Labour. As Harris notes, that party’s ‘fiscal restraint’ condemns basic public transport services to yet further underfunding. Not difficult to play that out – a Labour government that through timidity and ideological hollowness is unable to live up even to its own limited rhetoric and the expectations of an electorate expecting significant change.

All these things are linked. The politics, the lived reality for many many people in England, a public sphere that has been actively dismantled and where not has been left to disintegrate. And perhaps a broader sense of hopelessness, that even if there is change it won’t be near sufficient to mitigate, let alone to reverse the damage.

The wisdom of this crowd: The next General Election date August 29, 2023

Eilis O’Hanlon had this in the Sunday Independent at the weekend.

The next election must be held by March 2025, but most observers expect it to happen next year.

Is there a consensus on that date? Given that the next European Parliamentary elections and Local elections are to be held in June of next year, it seems implausible that there would be an election prior to them (excepting accidents and mishaps by government). So, the field opens up after June 2024. But pre-March 2025. What do people here think is the likeliest time for an election contest?