The Journal poll May 10, 2024
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.trackback
Fresh this morning. Polling on the European elections from The Journal/Ireland Thinks.
The results from the latest poll by The Journal and Ireland Thinks show that almost a quarter of people (24%) plan to vote for candidates classed as ‘independents and others’ on 7 June, up from 17% last month.
The next most popular choice is Sinn Féin on 22% (down slightly from 23%).
The state of the other parties is as follows:
- Fine Gael: 19% (down one percentage point)
- Fianna Fáil: 16% (down one)
- Green Party: 6% (no change)
- Social Democrats: 5% (down one)
- Aontú: 4% (down one)
- Labour: 3% (no change)
- Solidarity-People Before Profit: 2% (down one)
Fairly sharply at variance with other general polls for the General Election as seen here. At least with respect to Sinn Fein. Of course one has to factor in the locals as well. The jump for Independents and Others of 7% sees all other parties down one percentage point so drawing across the political spectrum. But perhaps an indication given SF’s higher ratings in polls for the GE that they’ve a good 5% or so of support that is weak.
Almost needless to say it’s one thing to state this in a poll but when faced with actual candidates that’s another thing entirely.
The Journal points to this:
The vast majority of people who participated in the opinion poll said they plan on voting in the European elections with 85% saying they are ‘very likely’ to vote next month.
Most people across all age groups said they intend to vote – ranging from 79% among 18 to 34-year-olds to 88% in older age brackets.
However, it’s notable that just under half of eligible voters turned up at the polls in 2019.
The Cedar Lounge Revolution 
I presume that last point is effectively meaningless? “Asked if they were willing to participate in polls, 100% of respondents said yes”.
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That figure for Independents gives a serious chance to the strongest ‘independent’ candidate in each constituency. So, Daly in Dublin. Not sure who in the other two.
It’s a thing about the Euros isn’t it. People happy to vote indo as a plague on all your houses message.
That’ll be a big pity if it results in some of those mostly very nasty independents getting elected.
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There’s also this bizarre notion among some people I’ve asked that by calling themselves ‘Independent’ means candidates are somehow less tainted or venal by virtue of not being in a political party.
Of course, first-time ‘Independents’ have the added advantage of not being accountable for anything by anyone beforehand.
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I suspect this is good news for Michael McNamara, Ciaran Mullooly , Ming and possibly some of the more odious Independents. Certainly from talking to people over the past while there’s a lot of frustration about health, housing, immigration etc that has to go somewhere.
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McNamara and Wallace in South, maybe. Ming and Mullooly in North. McNamara and Wallace nicely separated geographically. Will be interesting to see how it all pans out.
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