Meanwhile… in Scotland April 28, 2014
Posted by WorldbyStorm in British Politics, Scotland.trackback
Reading this in the Guardian at the weekend…
Daniel and Janice McIntyre, 73 and 65, sitting in their silver Seat car with the Scottish lion rampant flying from the car aerial, were emphatic that neither they nor their neighbours would ever vote yes. But Mr McIntyre, a retired engineer, felt depressed about the direction and health of the pro-UK campaign – capturing a mood that many believe is behind a surge in support for independence. “I must admit that on the television, all the debate programmes, that yes come out on top. I’m sorry to say that,” he said.
“I think the no is very weak. They’re not putting it across and even when the prime minister … or some of the cabinet comes down to Scotland, they seem to say the wrong things: they’re just saying things that annoy the Scots.”
…it struck me that while it is somewhat dodgy to anthropomorphise political processes and dynamics the responses there (and after all perhaps given that politics is about humans therefore this is small surprise) are reminiscent of nothing so much as a relationship that has failed, that point where whatever is said however reasonable or benevolent in other circumstances will simply not be interpreted as such by those who it is said to.
That, naturally, doesn’t mean anything in relation to the numbers who are disenchanted with the union, but it does suggest a significant degree of alienation amongst many – albeit in different ways.
The Cedar Lounge Revolution 
Last time I looked – only a couple of days ago – you could get 9/4 against Yes at Paddy Power. You can either take that as evidence that the Yes camp is more confident than it ought to be, or take the confidence of the Yes camp as evidence that you ought be getting on at that price while you can get it.
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Living and working in Glasgow, talking to neighbours and in-laws etc. and being involved in the Radical Indepedence Campaign, my impression is that a real shift is happening. This time last year, I think, most people felt that there was little prospect of a Yes victory but now theres a real feeling that its up for grabs and people have become much more engaged with the debate.
IMHO the reason for this change is two-fold: firstly the No Campaign has been abysmal, based almost entirely on establishment figures making increasingly ludicous threats about the catastrophy that will befall Scotalnd if we vote Yes. This has largely back-fired as more and more people are alienated by the negativity of that campaign and also by the way its treating the public as kids who can be scared by unveiling a procession of bogeymen.
On the Yes side while Salmonds undoubted skill as a politician, and the main Yes Campaigns largely positive message, have played a major role in the increasing support, the other factor has been the surge in ‘non-nationalist’ campaigning and arguments for a Yes vote. This surge has seen the growth of a dynamic youthful grassroots campaign spearheaded by RIC but also invlolves a multiplicity of organisations such as Women for Indepedence etc. The No campaign is about grandees making pronouncements and media campaigning but it is comprehensively out-matched on the ground in terms of canvassing, leafleting, public meetings etc. This is partly explained by reliance on Labour Party campaigners who seems to consist largely of councillors and their hangers-on: no match for the mass of enthusiastic Yes campaigners who go far beyond the pool of SNP members/supporters.
But a word of caution before you put your money on a Yes vitory: all the inidcations are that the No side is still ahead and one should not forget that we are talking about the break-up of the British state here and that state’s ruling class will not just sit back and let this happen, so the odds are still against a Yes vote winning. All Im saying is there’s a real contest on now.
BTW For most people involved in the RIC the real battle begins the day after the referendum when the shape of the new Scotland begins to emerge and hopefully we have a powerful radical left movement in place ready to play a decisive role in that process.
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Wow, it might just happen Colm. What a turnaround. And great overview btw. I’m tempted to post it up as a piece in itself if that’s okay.
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For those lefties who want more detail here’s some interesting pro-independence links:
http://radicalindependence.org/
http://www.womenforindependence.org/
http://tufsi.org/wp/
http://www.scottishsocialistparty.org/
http://internationalsocialist.org.uk/
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Be my guest.
BTW a book by James Foley and Pete Ramand (both of whom are RIC activists) making the left case for independence has just been published by Pluto press :
http://www.plutobooks.com/display.asp?K=9780745334752
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Thanks Colm. Much appreciated.
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http://eurofree3.wordpress.com/2014/04/27/no-more-rule-britannia/ is a sort of re-blog (focussing on the Unionists) of a bella caledonia article by John warren http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2014/04/27/confederation-of-british-incoherence/ which focusses on the implications of latest CBI debacle and U-turn
Both show how far removed the Unionist position is from real life. For an early statement of the unionist dilemma see also
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Thanks benmadigan for that.
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