What now for the BLP?

Some intriguing thoughts in this from Helen Lewis of the New Statesman in the Guardian at the weekend on party unity in the wake of the General Election. I was particularly taken by the following:

Once Theresa May had set off for Downing Street, Labour MPs from all factions stayed quiet, giving the Conservatives a negative news cycle all to themselves.

It was striking how little sense of disunity there was in the LP, and even wobbles by some LP front benchers – no names, no pack drill, were only fixed on by the Tories and their press. Of course there was a basic reason for this. This was, from everyone involved, a fight for political survival. No point rocking the boat if there was a chance that a loose word here or there might sink the ship. And while there was some muttering from Northern BLP MPs about how they couldn’t campaign on being hostile to that loon Corbyn once he started, y’know, piling up support in polls, this was notably off-record and this time most definitely with no names mentioned.

But in a way that merely foreshadows different dynamics that kick into operation post-election.

There will be no more talk of an existential crisis for the left; the electoral map now means it is entirely plausible for Labour to win the next election. And there will be no more yearning for a breakaway centrist party. Labour is the only game in town. And at its apex sits Jeremy Corbyn, who can lead the party for as long as he wants.

Fantastic. And Corbyn will inevitably use that to cement his authority and influence on the party. But as he said himself, he’s not a dictator. And as Lewis notes…

He has also proved willing to compromise on key issues – shoot to kill, Nato, the monarchy, Trident – and the manifesto contained very little most members of the parliamentary Labour party (PLP) found hard to defend.

Some might find that unpalatable, but as with Brexit, Corbyn could not, and would not, go against party policy as arrived at at Conference. Naturally he will attempt to influence policy change and that’s entirely appropriate. Let’s hope that the number of nationalisations envisaged in the next manifesto will be more and further and far-reaching reforms are outlined as policy. But… there’s tactical considerations as well. Labour needs every seat it can get to win the next election and that means that – and here I’m in agreement with Ed who noted the need to make a number of examples of those who lack, shall we say, necessary discipline and loyalty in relation to the party – as many as can be brought have to be brought. The gap between the LP and the Tories is frustratingly close. Fighting a war on two fronts in the next few years is always tricky – and thankfully if those like Lewis are correct in their analyses it seems that this hugely positive performance will silence many, most but not all dissenting voices.

And there’s another factor. In relation to the Shadow Cabinet:

 

“Jeremy has an immense sense of loyalty,” one well-placed source tells me, “he’s not going to remove people who have stuck by him, including those with very different politics, to accommodate others who have come to the party late.”

Another person close to the leader’s office observed that it would be “a slap in the face” to the likes of Barry Gardiner, Jonny Reynolds and Jon Ashworth, who have stayed in the shadow cabinet and put their shoulders to the wheel despite being from the centre-left, not the left, if they were moved to make way for the likes of Cooper.

Owen Smith of all people got the nod. But not at the expense of the above. And given Smith’s fulsome praise for Corbyn plus the fact he’s getting the position of Shadow Secretary of State for NI one has to think Corbyn is making any number of points.

 

Anyhow, for the first time quite some time people are seriously envisaging a Labour government as the outcome of the next election… and that has its own dynamic too:

Unity will also be helped by the need to maintain a state of readiness for another election.

It sure will. It has to be. And if the outcome of this one, a narrow Labour defeat but one which has delivered the Tories to a place so dismal that the very lifetime of this government is likely counted in at best a couple of years, then that is huge progress in the task of shifting matters leftwards. Last Friday it was like a weight lifting that had been pressing down for many years – not just in terms of Labour being able to put up a real fight and bring it to the enemy but also a qualitative change in the sort of approach Labour was fighting for. Long, long may it continue.