All going…

Thursday should be educative. That’s when the CSO’s latest figures on trade with Britain are released, and this particular set is of quite some significance being the first to outline the situation since Brexit proper took place.

As the SBP noted yesterday:

…experts predicting a significant drop in both imports and exports.

Trade with our nearest neighbour had already begun to fall last year ahead of Brexit, with exports falling €1.2 billion, or 9 per cent, to €12.4 billion. Imports also fell by €861million, or 5 per cent, to €17.8 billion.

This trend was continued through December, when exports fell 3 per cent and imports fell by 10 per cent.

The UK’s trade with the European Union plunged in January. Goods exports to the EU from Britain fell 40.7 per cent from a month earlier and imports dropped 28.8%, the Office for National Statistics in the UK said.

Of course this is the first month and one would expect – even simply due to new procedures coming into play – that there would be a degree of diminution in trade. But whether it will match or exceed the most downbeat assessments remains to be seen. On a consumer level the reality of increased costs is now much more clear presumably amongst those who would purchase in goods from the UK. That it is now essentially identical to the situation prevailing with regard to the United States – in terms of costs – is without question going to constitute an obstacle to people. That’s an inconvenience, but for businesses and others in commercial or semi-commercial contexts one can imagine the situation must be much worse than an inconvenience.

On many levels there’s the possibility of pivoting towards the continent. But not in every case.