Local and European Elections Count Thread – Tuesday June 11, 2024
Posted by guestposter in Uncategorized.trackback
All the news from the counts today. Would people mind adding times to comments with numbers from counts to get a sense of how and when they are posted at. Thanks.
The Cedar Lounge Revolution 
Fair play to the Returning Officer for keeping the count going yesterday until the last of the open racists and fascists had been eliminated. They’re history now.
And almost half the last racist’s transfers went to bad Boylan.
Long way to go yet with any number of possible twists and turns.
LikeLiked by 3 people
few years back and you would have been referring to both of them as Bad Boylan’s 😀😀😀
LikeLiked by 4 people
10:40am Tuesday, Dublin EU election count, and I see Bad Boylan has moved into third place in the four-seat race as SF’s Doolan eliminated. 🤦🏻♂️
LikeLike
That happened last night, he got a massive chunk of transfers when Steenson was eliminated. Doolan’s transfers should put Lynn Boylan back into third, and it looks like the Aontú candidate is Bad Boylan’s last shot at a big bump.
LikeLiked by 4 people
Going by my mental maths, roughly 70% of Doolan’s transfers just now went to L Boylan, which might have been expected, but the retention rate was stronger than has been the case between SF council candidates.
LikeLiked by 1 person
SF will need to have that kind of vote retention to be in with a chance in MNW, and it might not even be enough in South.
LikeLike
bad Boylan and worser again Boylan 🙂
LikeLiked by 1 person
On the European front, it took the French left a mere twenty-four hours to renew the old NUPES alliance for their snap Assembly elections in three weeks time.
LikeLiked by 3 people
Aontu’s transfers will presumably boost “Bad” Boylan more, but after than you have to assume the majority of transfers from Gibney, Daly, Smith and whoever is trailing between Cuffe and O’Riordan will be going elsewhere, not to mention the few transfers from elected MEPs.
LikeLiked by 1 person
I think it was pettyburgess on here who described Daly as a left populist. Some commentators describe bad Boylan as a right populist. It’ll be worth watching to see what transfer there is from Daly to bad Boylan (if Daly gets eliminated).
LikeLike
There’ll be a few.
LikeLike
if he doesn’t substantially increase his lead on Daly with these Aontu transfers, we could be finding out how many of his voters transfer to her.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Doolan’s transfers mostly as expected. 14k votes from Considine now which will presumably shove Boylan on a bit, but then it’s 18k from SD’s, then 25k+ PBP as it stands
LikeLiked by 1 person
After the elimination of Aisling Considine and distribution Niall Boylan is now 8,600 ahead of Ciaran Cuffe and 10,265 ahead of Aodhan O’Riordan. Sinead Gibney has 18,396 to distribute so either needs a transfer rate of over 50% to get ahead of Niall Boylan. I think more will go to Ciaran Cuffe but not at that level.
AO’R to eventually elect CC and NB can go back to his radio or podcasting and the far right can go back to complaining about how unfair this democracy thing is. Although we will likley see a Clare Daly distribution also which could mix it up
LikeLiked by 3 people
My guess is that FF will be the main beneficiaries from Aontú.
But its really noticeable how few transfers the FF+FG candidates have got so far. 80% of a quota on the first count and still not there after 14 counts. It shows that despite their ongoing dominance, there are many people (even ignoring the racists) hungry for anybody else to get into power – If only they could form some sort of coherent platform.
LikeLike
They really are getting very few transfers and surely with the candidates now going out will get less. Agree one hundred percent an alternative is sought. Even in an inchoate way II represents some of that. Unfortunately in that case
LikeLike
I’ve just seen that the Aontú transfers went to BB/CD/FF with BB getting three times as many as FF. Which I suppose tells us most of what we need to know about who the Aontú voters are.
LikeLiked by 2 people
IEP puts things in context, that BB ultimately only harvested 32% of far-right transfers, when realistically he needed those proportions to be inverted:
https://twitter.com/irishelectproj/status/1800512863746064655
Will be interesting to note what he gets from Daly, unless of course Smith’s transfers push her ahead of either Cuffe or O’Riordáin …
LikeLike
But the FFD+FG dominance this weekend reminds me of the Damon Runyon quote:
‘The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that is the way you should bet.’
LikeLiked by 1 person
Peter Casey saying on X that he’s never running again. Chance would be a fine thing.
Does make me wonder about the Aras next year. Some of these twits elected to council will have a voice on nominations now.
LikeLiked by 5 people
Gibney eliminated. This is crunch time for O’Riordain.
LikeLike
Yep. I’m sticking with one FF, one FG, one SF and one between Cuffe and Ó Ríordáin now.
Gibney’s transfers should bring Ó Ríordáin and Cuffe up a few thousand each. But then Smith’s transfers could bring Daly above one or both of them. The lower one will be eliminated then and should transfer enough to the other to bring them above bad Boylan. If Daly gets eliminated before both, one of them will be eliminated then and the same prediction stands.
We can all go home now, Banjo has called it.
LikeLiked by 3 people
And not good news for A O’R, as he only gets 4,400 transfers. Cuffe receives 3,200, Smith 3,000, with Lynn Boylan, Daly, and Doherty all picking up 1,500 each.
LikeLiked by 1 person
AoR needed at least 10000 from Gibney to be certain. Very nervy for him now.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Things can change so quickly with STV! AO’R now 400 behind CC, to get the seat I think he probably needed to be ahead of him by now.
Alarmingly, Clare Daly has 10,000 to make up on Niall Boylan, looks like she needs a 50% plus transfer rate from Brid Smith to overtake him.
Still stand by Niall Boylan not getting elected but it might take a similarly large transfer rate from AO’R to CC to knock him out. Which brings up the much spoken about merger of Labour and SD. Maybe the answer or what should happen is a loose alliance where they remain autonomous and possibly include the Greens also. Formal transfer pacts and some shared campaigning.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Am I right in thinking that Dublin Bay North is the only area where both SD and Labour share sitting TDs? As you say, good argument for Greens and Soc Dems sitting out in say, Tipp and Wexford, with Labour returning the favour in Cork SW and Wicklow. Question in Dublin constituencies would be whether a “Progressive Alliance” slate of 2-3 TDs per area would actually be less effective than standing individually, in that competition increases the transfer pool available, and/or discourage preferences from Sol-PBP, where the SDs fared well on Friday.
LikeLiked by 1 person
“Am I right in thinking that Dublin Bay North is the only area where both SD and Labour share sitting TDs? “
Yes, it’s the only constituency where that is in play. For any sort of alliance to work AoR really needs to go to Europe. He and O’Callaghan are both big beasts in their parties and can hold any mergers back as long as they are in direct competition.
LikeLike
Hmmm a lot riding on him getting a seat so. Perhaps too much?
LikeLike
“Hmmm a lot riding on him getting a seat so. Perhaps too much?”
Hopefully not but it is very very tight now. He really need a lot more from Gibney – a lot more.
LikeLike
Could some of you who are smarter than me (that means all of you!) put me out of my misery and confirm Lynn is safe?I’m getting no work done today ,calling at my house numerous times to check my laptop!
LikeLike
If Lynn Boylan fails to get elected from her current position then we can all give up. Ignoring Niall Boylan (if only it could be done) there can be no way that none of the votes of Brid Smith, Clare Daly, Aodhan O’Riordan and Ciaran Cuffe have not preferenced Lynn somewhere. While the transfer rate may not be as good to Sinn Fein, it will surely keep her in third or fourth
LikeLiked by 1 person
Mini-fuhrer transfers too few for micro-Trump Boylan, who can almost be ruled out now. Gibney and Smith transfers to decide: Cuffe or Ó Ríordáin to take last seat with L Boylan.
LikeLike
Thanks Paul but could even more of you give me reassurance!
LikeLiked by 1 person
She’s safe Roddy. But I’m not smarter than you so you probably won’t believe me. Be interesting to see who gets more transfers from Smith – Lynn or Daly. But Lynn has to get a fair few so she’s safe. Go back to work man!
LikeLike
Mrs Roddy told me the exact same thing Joe! She says politics does’nt buy any groceries!
LikeLiked by 1 person
I wish it was true but most of those Euro candidates are in it for the money.
LikeLike
We’re all being a bit Dublin-centric here aren’t we.
Can I suggest to chef that they put up three separate threads, one for each of the Euro constituencies.
I just had a glance at the counts so far in the two culchie constituencies. Not a clue as to how they’re going to go. Would be good to hear the views and predictions of all the clever people on here, including you Roddy!
LikeLike
Unfortunately the two other two are going much slower so there isn’t much to see from either yet, though Kelly did get elected on the first count in South so that’s something I guess.
LikeLiked by 1 person
I’m hoping Clare Daly really hangs in there at this point, if only because I’m afraid of how many of her votes could transfer to Bad Boylan.
LikeLiked by 1 person
I don’t think it will matter when she gets eliminated (if she does). It will be down to the transfers of either AOR or CC when either gets eliminated. They need enough transfers, one to the other, to get ahead of bad B and Daly (if she’s still in).
LikeLike
Gavan Reilly saying Daly not getting enough from Smith to stay in. So Cuffe elects AOR/ AOR elects Cuffe with not so bad Boylan staying afloat in third?
LikeLike
That’s the hope
LikeLike
Am I right in thinking Greens, SDs and Labour are transfer friendly to each other, the soft, greenish Left? I have a memory that candidates were eliminated in counts now it is excluded. Am I right?
LikeLiked by 1 person
Pretty much so, but in the European count, Smith also did well off Gibney’s transfers – interesting left-centre-right voter self-placement from Kevin Cunningham:
https://twitter.com/kevcunningham/status/1800553224157679740
LikeLiked by 1 person
Paul. It’s interesting but what is it? Is it a survey of voters asking how they’d describe themselves? (Sorry I’m not a Twitterite. Don’t know how to find out more about the table…).
LikeLike
Ireland Thinks exit poll data.
LikeLiked by 1 person
And breakdown by class, interesting that Smith actually has more middle-class than working class support, in stark contrast to Daly, and conversely SDs more demographically even than Labour or the Greens:
https://twitter.com/kevcunningham/status/1800550255441973657
LikeLiked by 1 person
It does look really interesting alright, Paul.
LikeLike
margin of error is far too big to draw any useful information from that unless there’s a huge difference in opinions by self reported class.
It’s a sub-sample of 772 then divided into three sub-sub-samples of unspecified size.
LikeLiked by 1 person
in the Smith example for instance she supposedly has 4% support from working class voters and 5% from middle class voters. But the margin of error will be well over 5%. That’s just not useful data.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Yeah Jim. I just heard on the radio that Clare Daly had been excluded from the count. And I thought she might have thrown a strop and been removed from the count centre. Excluded seems to be taking over from eliminated. Then again, you can come back from exclusion but elimination has a touch of finality about it.
LikeLiked by 1 person
I wonder if it’s a term used during the count, along with ‘deemed’ elected, that gets converted to ‘eliminated’ once the counting is done and the returning officer makes everything official.
LikeLike
In Mother Russia it would be liquidated not excluded.
LikeLike
Daly eliminated
AOR ahead of Cuffe. SO looks like Good Boylan and AOR for the final two seats.
LikeLiked by 2 people
Follow at this link : https://www.rte.ie/news/elections-2024/results/#/european/dublin RTÉ reports Clare Daly has lost her seat, eliminated.
LikeLike
Is there any chance now that Daly’s transfers will bring both AOR and CC above the bad Boy? In which case it would be bad Boy’s transfers which ultimately decide whether AOR or CC make it!
LikeLike
Gavan Reilly reporting Cuffe will go next, but AOR will reduce the gap on BB.
LikeLike
Like a WW2 B-17 shot to bits over Europe (hah) but limping home, it looks like AoR will make it in.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Also, excuse me everybody. I have to step away from my keyboard for a minute. To whoop it up around the kitchen cos ding, dong the Pu$%n apologist and c*&*abor%&or is gone.
LikeLike
Hauld your whist, Jo…
The Pink Gentleman of Wexford still has skin in the game
LikeLike
Fergal. More whooping to come. The worker-robbing, tax dodging P&%tin apologist an Da*y parrot will be gone soon too.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Lol, as those who chuckle put it – he’s done fairly well to be honest, and a few ‘quirky’ indos could boost his score?
LikeLiked by 1 person
I haven’t been following the count there tbh Fergal. I guess he might be in for a decent transfer from the main racist. Fingers crossed that he doesn’t make it
LikeLike
Just had a quick look at the South now.
You’re right Fergal. Wallass seems to be in with a decent shout. He’ll get a good transfer from the likes of Bl*&%e and Punch the II man who put the run on Putin’s navy. And Aontú probably and even SolPbP.
Looks kind of like his main rivals for the fourth and fifth seat will be Ní Mhurchú FF and Funchion SF. Funchion’s running mate has 22k+ to distribute when the time comes.
I think it kind of comes down to: transfers from the far right and II etc going to utlimately to Wallass. Transfers from the Greens, Labour, SDs, FG going ultimately to Ní Mhurchú. There’s more transfers there to Ní M than to Wallass. Funchion is the one I’d be worried about. Fingers and toes crossed that she’ll make it ahead of him.
A factor for both Funchion and Ní M is that the Green, Labour and SD candidates are all women. There could be a few extra transfers to the two women who are in with a chance based on that.
I’ve written off Grace O’Sullivan of the Greens there and maybe I shouldn’t just yet.
Mrs Banjo has just announced that two full days of keyboard warriorhood is quite enough. So South and Midlands Nth West and the CLR are just going to have to elect these people without my help. (But panic ye not! As the beardy lad sort of said, I haven’t really gone away you know).
LikeLiked by 2 people
Herself is having a nap.
Another factor. The last three elected will probably be elected without a quota. So those inds etc getting eliminated, a proportion of their transfers will go to McNamara as a fellow ind, as opposed to Wallass. And once there they stay there because McNamara won’t be eliminated but most likely he’ll be elected without reaching the quota.
This is all good. (McNamara is a better option than Wallass isn’t he?).
LikeLiked by 1 person
“Asked how she felt after losing her seat, Clare Daly told RTÉ News: “You had no interest in talking to me for five years so I’ve no interest in talking to you”.
She hugged Independent Ireland candidate Niall Boylan before leaving the count centre.”
As was said to me about another candidate with another candidate again in the locals I know there are niceties but the latter is not necessary. I feel genuinely sorry for her, huge potential but some real errors of judgement over the years which destabilised her political positivity to many.
LikeLiked by 1 person
She’s an embarrassment. Good riddance.
LikeLiked by 1 person
As I have seen with Clare Daly over the years at various counts, when she or her candidates are doing well, she is nice as pie. When she or her candidates do not do well, she is rather unpleasant to others – far more than needs be.
Losing an election is tough (been there as an agent and a candidate) but there are unwritten rules around conduct at a count. Having a pop at the media or whoever else wants to talk is not on. Simply say “Will chat about it another time” or say, “no comment” and head off.
LikeLiked by 2 people
I worked with Daly in elections over the years and had all lot of time for her, always thought she was a principled but realistic socialist. It was sad at first to watch her political degeneration and then infuriating as she morphed into a Putin/Assad/PRC apologist and anti-vaxxer, and now finally this: hugging the far right candidate as she leaves, an apt metaphor for where she has landed. Hopefully this is the end of her political career – I guess there’s always work at RT or Fox News?
LikeLiked by 2 people
Yes, I’d have marched into battle behind her ten years ago, but she completely lost her moral compass. She’s become more and more of a hindrance to the left since her role in breaking up the ULA.
And there might yet be a radio station looking for a new presenter, if she’s at a loose end.
LikeLiked by 2 people
😀😀😀…..breaking up the ULA …..best joke of the night
LikeLiked by 1 person
I just checked back on where Al-Quadri’s transfers went…
FF got the biggest share (16%).
But 7% went to Bad Boylan, with 3% going to Steenson!?
LikeLiked by 1 person
Strange times!
LikeLiked by 1 person
Strange voting choices being contemplated in England too.
BBC TV ‘News at Six’ on Tuesday interviews three voters in Tory stronghold of garrison town Aldershot. One claims he’s a longtime (or lifelong) socialist “warming to the Tories” and a disillusioned Tory wanting change, says she might “vote Labour . . . or Reform”. 🤷🏻♂️
LikeLiked by 3 people
I saw somebody comment that a lot of his transfers went alphabetically.
LikeLiked by 1 person
And at this stage, you’d have to trot out the line the Indo loved a few years ago about SF not being transfer friendly and apply it to FF+FG.
Count 17 and they’ve gone from 80% to 89% of a quota.
LikeLiked by 1 person
This really is quite striking … lack of transfers to those daring centrist warriors … Yeats was wrong with the Trabsition Year Taoiseach and Wonder Boy Martin … the centre can, does and will hold!
LikeLiked by 1 person
LikeLike
The Irish proletariat have that sorted for you, comrade Andersson.
LikeLiked by 1 person
19.40
Cuffe eliminated now with 43,500 votes to distribute. Ó Ríordáin is 2500 behind the bad Boy. He should make up that deficit with Cuffe’s transfers surely?
Daly’s transfers went 11.5k to the better Boylan, 5k to Ó Ríordáin and 4.5k to the bad Boy. So most of her voters have a bit of cop.
LikeLiked by 2 people
He just needs 3% of Cuffe’s transfers to pass BB, assuming next to none of transfers go that way
LikeLiked by 1 person
In fairness in that respect nothing befits her as much as her leaving (transfers!).
LikeLike
Hey Roddy – Not only is Lynn B getting elected, there has to an outside chance she’ll be the first one across the line!
LikeLiked by 1 person
Thats good but now Funcheon has given me something to worry about all day tomorrow.Is there no escape from this?
LikeLiked by 2 people
I think you might be worrying all the way til Thursday for Funcheon. But at least your neighbours around the border have taken any of the stress out of it Midlands-North-West!
LikeLike
Those Midlands culchies let my border neighbours down!
LikeLiked by 1 person
It might be a wind up, but it’s better than the instantaneous e-voting we tried before. And it’s better than not having a vote at all.
LikeLiked by 1 person
+1
LikeLike
Will the Greens demand of their coalition partners that Cuffe be the government cause for one of the Seanad seats that will become vacant?
LikeLike
Ah Roddy. Sorry to be the bearer…
From the Indo just now.
Kildare County Council
And the winner after the second recount in Kildare is…..Section 84.3 of Statutory Instrument 297/1995.
After flip-flopping between one ahead and then two votes behind, Melissa Byrne of Aontú and James Stokes of Sinn Féin emerged from the fresh 10th count in Newbridge on equal votes.
Returning officer Eoghan Ryan had to go to the law to resolve the tie. According to the cited legislation, situations like this require going back to the very first count, with whoever polled higher remaining in the race.
James Stokes was excluded given he had the lower number of first preferences.
Ms Byrne, 25, and Mr Stokes, 18, embraced after what has been a stressful experience for the two political novices.
The count can now resume to try to fill the last three seats in the six-seater LEA.
LikeLike
You’re back!
LikeLiked by 1 person
She’s still napping.
LikeLiked by 1 person
🙂
LikeLike
James has made a successful debut as the publicity will lift his profile greatly.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Breaking news. Lazarus Stokes has just been granted a 3rd recount!
LikeLiked by 2 people
Tell the missus you’ve urgent business in Kildare tomorrow Roddy. I’ll tell mine the same. We’ll head to the count and ensure that justice is served.
LikeLiked by 1 person
In the old days before we went our separate ways Joe ,there would have been no nonsense like this.”Special activities” ensured neither Tom Mitchell or Bernadette Devlin had to worry about recounts.
LikeLiked by 2 people
The result awaits : Andrews, Doherty, Boylan (L), and Ó Ríordáin. Bad Boylan loses. https://www.rte.ie/news/elections-2024/results/#/european/dublin Daly hugs Bad Boylan on the way out of the count centre – Red-Brown politics in action. https://www.rte.ie/news/elections-2024/2024/0611/1454089-european-election-roundup/
LikeLike
The Euro results cause, so far, 1 Dáil by-election, Dublin Bay North (Ó Ríordáin elected) and 1 Seanad by-election (L Boylan elected). On the way : Clare (McNamara) and Carlow-Kilkenny (Funchion) by elections following South declaration. Offaly (Cowen) by election, following MNW declaration.
This may persuade Harris to call a general election, avoiding four by-elections in December.
Less likely! Gildernew defeat leads to a change of mind about running in Fermanagh-South Tyrone – new candidate graciously stops nursing the voters and steps down!
LikeLiked by 1 person
Nominations for FST closed on Friday.Michele has been having a rough time lately.Her husband is recovering from a severe stroke and her nephew was drowned last week.
LikeLiked by 2 people
huge transfer from Cuffe to AOR – 40%?
LikeLiked by 1 person
Can’t find the figures. I’ll go check the Examiner. That’s been pretty good actually.
LikeLike
Though Gavin Reilly had a good tweet showing a massive pile for AOR and feck all for Boylan.
LikeLike
Gavan Reilly on twitter has it. Can’t link on phone ATM.
LikeLike
16k to AOR – 900 or so to NB
LikeLike
Watched it on Prime Time. Returning Officer nearly gave me a heart attack. The Ó Ríordáin figure came last and he announced it as One Six… and I think fookin hell he only got 1600. 🙂 🙂 🙂
LikeLiked by 1 person
Only 900 or so to Niall Boylan. Just when you think your notions of transfer patterns no longer holds that helps restore some sanity
LikeLiked by 2 people
What I kind of like is that every left person built up what was the resistance to NB. Piece by piece, Daithi Doolin, Sinead Gibney, Bríd Smith, Clare Daly, Ciaran Cuffe. Okay, we can argue how left people are, but you know what I mean. And then it’s like a massive transfer in the end. Whatever any individual quibbles fair dues to the lot of them.
LikeLiked by 3 people
That last transfer – another key moment in pointing out that far from representing a silent majority the hard and far right represent a (loud and toxic) fringe. Can’t be said enough.
And what about the transfers to FF/FG. Hmmm. they’ll have to think about that I suspect.
LikeLike
People need to switch off when media pundits say transfers are “going all over the place”. That is invariably nonsense. Once you study the numbers, patterns become clear; in this Dubl8n Euro elections the mini-Hitler trash like Steenson transferred heavily to a compatible lead candidate – the mini-Putin Níall Boylan. The left voters, on both the soft and hard side, ganged up against bad Boylan the mini-Trump.
LikeLike
Of course it was the voters who did that, not the candidates.
LikeLike
Very true, that’s a key point.
LikeLiked by 1 person
That’s it. They’re saying its FF/FG/SF and LP. Never thought I’d say this but phew.
LikeLiked by 6 people
Link to final count in Dublin https://www.rte.ie/news/elections-2024/results/#/european/dublin A striking statistic : the Ciarán Cuffe transfer is very hostile to Níall Boylan, the mini-Trump candidate. The Daly transfer was mainly left, but gave bad Boylan a significant percentage. Would it be unfair to label bad Boylan a mini-Putin candidate? Don’t think so – Trump and Putin are role models for candidates like Níall Boylan. Unfortunately, this is not understood by Red-Brown politicians – and that is what Clare Daly has become. Extremely sad.
LikeLike
I can’t imagine that she did that deliberately though – and I’d have a critique of her politics over recent times. After all, she was always going to run and Boylan emerged late in the day. Nor, I’ll bet, did she think she’d be losing out to the likes of Boylan.
I think it’s more a function of Independents (I know she has a label of I4C but that’s merely a badge). They by dint of that ‘independent’ name do tend to pull in votes that are contradictory and so on.
Or put it a different way: Fintan O’Toole isn’t wrong that SF acted in some ways (though this wasn’t their primary function) as a buffer for some who in other places would have voted far right across the years. After all, the vote we see for the far right didn’t spring into being over the last eighteen months. Irish people didn’t have a sudden phase shift from non-racist to racist; some have always been racist, others have been misled or misguided or frightened by malign influences. But SF was sufficiently oppositional that they’d vote for them even if SF was in itself largely (overwhelmingly?) leftist in orientation, though I’d add in that sometimes that leftism is very hazy, more a sentiment than a set of concrete policies let alone a programmatic approach.
And, of course, there’s another factor that SF was an abstraction for many years – it wasn’t close to power.
Small wonder as not merely do issues like refugees come closer into prominence but also SF get large enough to have to tack this way and – as they have a real shot at getting power – that abstract quality falls away and the party has to deal with the here and now. And some people do not like that one little bit.
LikeLiked by 1 person
I saw film of the hug. The actions do not look accidental. Unless the video is manipulated? Leaving that to one side, I think that only political observers who do not want to see the evidence in front of their eyes can miss the existence of Clare Daly red-brown politics. It is poison, and is caused by a wilful refusal to practice solidarity with Ukraine against the genocidal Russian invasion. John Meehan
LikeLiked by 1 person
Some people who were there insist that NB wasn’t the only candidate Daly hugged as she left: Cuffe, at least, also got a goodbye. So the evidence is possibly been instrumentalised.
LikeLiked by 2 people
Yeah, possibly. Sadly it’s a bad look either way. I’m sympathetic to her distress at a loss, but, well hug a cuffe if you got to but better to hug only your friends. Also her jibe at RTÉ was far of the mark. She’d been on one radio programme alone three times this year by my count.
I think she’s a campist clearly and that’s always blinkering. These days too it leads to odd places and people some of whom many of us would consider reactionaries and political enemies.
More substantively – why did she lose the seat? In her 2019 leaflet she said she’d be focussing on a Europe that was privatising, gutting public services and helping corporations as well as the military industrial complex. I suppose one could argue she then engaged in perception largely with the latter and foreign affairs. The perception might be incorrect and unfair but perceptions matter. But the problem there is that it doesn’t link back clearly back to being a Dublin MEP. Even on the terms she presented herself what could she bring back to this city in 2024 to point to that would resonate in a political context where there’s a massive housing crisis, weaponisation of refugees by the far right and parts of the commentariat etc etc? And where is class politics in this?
I’m not really surprised like or loath AOR that someone so vociferously in favour of refugees and against the attacks on them and so on won that seat.
LikeLike
Well that was all a bit too close to the wind in Dublin, wasn’t it. Doesn’t bode well for the future, that general election on the near horizon.
The French Left have the right idea, a popular front to coordinate the vote against the Right. I really can’t see that happening here though. SF have a lot of questions to ask themselves coming out of these elections, but I doubt whether a Left election pact will be one of those. More’s the pity. What’s the biggest priority now, a border poll and Irish unity or keeping a more extreme nationalism in check. Unfortunately I don’t have faith in SF answering that question in the short term in a way that most here in CLR land would probably prefer.
LikeLike
There is clearly a substantial tranche of voters who will, even without a voting pact, vote SD/LAB/Green 1,2,3, in whatever order. They probably don’t need a voting pact to sustain this. Less clear that these people will transfer to SF or that SF voters will move to the more ‘respectable’ centre left parties.
I’m convinced that the ‘national question’ has very little to do with why people vote (or not) for SF anymore. A faint hum in the background, but like it or not, that’s all it is.
An agreed platform of basic policies that all of the above could sign up to, and a clear opposition to the far right, could maximise the seat yield from the left leaning electorate. And remember, that electorate is a lot more substantial that it was when we were young.
LikeLiked by 4 people
…and surely housing can and should be the centre of that platform.
As this election took shape, immigration dominated the news cycle, pushing everything else down the agenda. And typically of Irish media, we’ve had detailed counts of the number of tents in Dublin 2, and the implication of a flood of asylum seekers crossing the border, but no actual statistics about immigration, which might have lowered the temperature.
I really don’t see that immigration had to be such a banana skin for SF. When asked about tents on the canal, talk about housing; when asked about towns left without hotels, talk about housing; when asked about ‘legitimate concerns of local people’ talk about housing.
That wouldn’t just be clever politics, it would be a legitimate analysis that would surely bring a lot of people on board. When SF’s numbers were flying high, it was mainly due to housing. Get that back to the top of the agenda.
LikeLiked by 2 people
+1
LikeLike
For such a pact to happen, a lot of people would have to get over themselves but, in an Ireland where FF and FG are becoming best buds, anything is possible. And since that centre right bloc is now a bloc, all the more reason to set up an equal and opposite centre left one.
LikeLiked by 1 person
With respect to getting over themselves, I heard Duncan Smith (Labour Whip) on the radio on Monday evening, and he seemed to have no interest in talking about anything other than SF, and how their vote had collapsed, and how they had been exposed as some sort of sham.
So presumably he sees Labour’s role in Irish politics is to be some sort of unofficial Opposition to the Opposition? Whatever else was on his mind, he didn’t sound like a man about to sign up for a coherent leftist bloc!
LikeLike
Yeah, I was going to say Labour would be the big stumbling block here, more than SF.
LikeLiked by 1 person