Local and European Elections Count Thread – Wednesday (yeah, Wednesday, that’s today!) June 12, 2024
Posted by guestposter in Uncategorized.trackback
All the news from the counts today. Would people mind adding times to comments with numbers from counts to get a sense of how and when they are posted at. Thanks.
The Cedar Lounge Revolution 
I see James Stokes is back out in front of Aontu by one vote after a third recount, and now of course we have a fourth. How many recounts are reasonable?
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Don’t know – it’s a horrible situation for the two of them. Hope he wins though!
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Until the result is stable. Changes in recounts mean earlier mistakes have been found or mistake were made in the recount.
These recounts are finding changes of three or so votes, and that makes a difference to the outcome. If the winner were six voters ahead, then there wouldn’t be a need to recheck or recount s there would be no material change to the outcome.
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Yes, votes were found, quotas changed etc etc which is why each candidate was allowed call for two recounts.
I’m told that if Aountú get through then they are likely to take the Far Right candidate out and win the last seat on SF transfers.
However it may be a phyrric victory were SF to get through as Aontú transfers would be less SF friendly and the Far Right would win the seat.
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And so it came to pass. The racist won the seat in the end. Well called iel.
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Tied in with the Lab/SD/Green discussion in the other thread, Pauline O’Reilly’s transfers have just been distributed in MNW – 4,000 between the two FG candidates, compared to roughly 2,300 each for McHugh and Hearne. In Ireland South, meanwhile, the Rabartha transfers broke 3:1 SD vs Green, though the Cork factor may be of relevance there!
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FG are doing pretty well transfer wise in MNW… FF less so, echoes of Dublin there too
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very sorry Clare Daly lost her seat – a voice that will be sorely missed in speaking up against war and injustice.
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Her dalliances with Putin, Tehran and Assad rather hurt her credibility in that regard, however.
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Speaking up against injustice eh?
Against the mass incarceration and ethnocide of the Uighur people? The imperialist assault on the Ukrainian people? The spread of misinformation re vaccines that save women’s lives? The victims of sectarian violence in Iraq? The violent supression of the Kurdish resistance in Iran? The murder of1000s of Syrians by Assad’s genocidal regimes?
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Not to worry though, I’m sure she’ll get a job with some right wing authoritarian mouthpiece: RT, maybe Fox News?
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yes a loss in the European Parliament. She was well respected for her strong views on neutrality and a voice against war. Clares defeat is a victory for the war mongers, the IT columnists and the loser left. Hopefully Lynn Boylan can bring a voice to Brussels.
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Not going to engage on this. Not worth it.
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If supporting the struggle of the Ukrainian people against imperialism, the Uighur people against genocide, the Syrian people against the mass murderer Assad, as well as the Palestinian people against apartheid, the Cuban people against an illegal imperialist blockade makes me part of the loser left then I’m proud of the (albeit childish) label.
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Just on that I hope SF doesn’t leave its current group in the EU parliament and shift to a softer left one. Boylan is a great addition agreed.
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Meanwhile South count is interesting at the moment. V v interesting (6.45 pm).
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Great transfer from Gavan to Funchion. Is that the most disciplined transfer in any of the counts so far?
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Lynn has rejoined the left group.
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I hope KF and MG make it. Good SF people. Good for Ireland and as reps in Europe.
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Nearly 50k SD/ LAB votes to distribute in South – battle for last seat between Wallace and O’Sullivan?
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Very hard to call. Geography comes into play. Maybe gender too. Looks like the last two seats will be between Wallace, Ní Mhurchú, O’Sullivan and Funchion.
50k SD/Lab votes to distribute. 55k populist and hard right votes to distribute. 38k FG votes to distribute. 25k SF votes to distribute.
And Kelleher and McNamara still absorbing loads of those transfers as they’re still tens of thousands below the quota.
The best thing to do is to let the counters do their work!
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The 55k populist right and racist right votes are two Corkmen.
Punch is from Castletownbere if I’m not mistaken. Isn’t he the fisherman who warned off the Russian navy a year or two ago. So he would have gotten an independent south west Cork vote which might transfer all over the place … I’m guessing a fair few to McNamara but after that his voters might transfer to their ‘traditional parties’ like FF and FG and SF. Wishful thinking here but Wallace is a long way away from southwest Cork. And hopefully the locals will see that Wallace is a Putin sneaking regarder and stand with Punch against the common enemy.
Blighe afaik is from Fermoy or Mitchelstown and is an out and out racist. His transfers will most likely mostly go to McNamara and Wallace. Hopefully a fair few will be plumpers or stop at the other racists and rightists who’ve already been eliminated.
Funchion currently has a 7.5k lead on Wallace. The transfers of O’Sullivan the Green and Mullins FG… even though many of those voters will have put Funchion higher on their papers than Wallace, their votes will probably be absorbed by other candidates who are going to get elected but haven’t reached the quota.
7.5k is a good lead at this stage. Go Kathleen.
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Funny how Blighe couldn’t get a council seat. Apparently in one of the debates he screamed from the audience that voters would show what the Irish people wanted – tgry sure did!
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nearly 30k SD votes next? O’Sullivan to edge closer to Wallace?
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Could do
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To edge closer yeah but I doubt she’ll be able to make up the 9k gap from the 30k SD votes.
Ní Mhurchú will get transfers from the 130k votes of O’Sullivan GP, Mullins FG and Doyle SD. I think that’ll get her elected.
Wallace will get transfers from Blighe’s 38k. Will he get enough to overtake Funchion? The gap is 6.5k currently.
Where will Funchion get the transfers she might need to stay ahead of Wallace?
If Wallace gets elected it’ll be thanks to transfers he gets from Blighe. If Funchion doesn’t get elected it’ll be because she doesn’t get enough transfers from O’Sullivan, Mullins and Doyle.
Ní Mhurchú and Funchion for the last two seats.
Banjo has called it.
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Barely a quarter of Doyle’s transfers went to O’Sullivan, with Funchion also getting 4.6k – basically Wallace vs Ní Mhurchú for the last now.
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Yes. Doyle must be a neighbour of Funchion. Didn’t see that coming.
Yep it looks like Funchion will be in.
Ní Mhurchú vs Wallace for the last seat. Down to those Blighe, Mullins and O’Sullivan transfers.
Blighe is certain to transfer a decent wodge to Wallace.
But will O’Sullivan and Mullins transfers go to Ní Mhurchú in enough numbers.
Wallace may be going back to Brussels with a new chef de cabinet.
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Sheesh
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Blighe’s votes will be distributed first this morning (Thursday). Then Mullins of FG. Any chance Mullins’s transfers could take O’Sullivan GP above Ní Mhurchú FF? Mullins and O’Sullivan are both Cork afaik and Ní Mhurchú is Carlow. Ní Mhurchú is 2k ahead of O’Sullivan before Blighe’s votes are distributed. But will FG people transfer to those Greens who are only interested in saving humanity and don’t care about farmers.
Would be interesting to do an analysis of transfers between the three governing parties in this election. My sense is that FG to FF and FF to FG have been strong. But those two not transferring as well to the Greens. The poor old Greens seem to be transfer toxic from everyone bar maybe SDs and Labour.
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Ming on RTE just now suggesting he’ll run for President next year. I could see it happening.
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Ming’s ok.
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Ming running for President reminds me of Gay Mitchell. Hard-fighting politician if you’re of that political persuasion, but just not presidential.
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It seems unlikely that eh’d make it, but then again… he’s been a TD and an MEP.
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Who would he be up against?
Was it Mary Robinson who put the candle in the window… There is a light that never goes out. Ming could ceremonially light a big joint from the candle and his Presidency s’ slogan would be There is a joint that never goes out.
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I like him. Sound enough guy in person, a bit testy but hard worker. A lot better politics than I thought he had back in the day.
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I’d vote for him. He’s a bit eccentric which is ok. Not a Miggeldy, but a million times better than a Casey or a Sean Gallagher type. Or a Bertie or Enda.
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Agreed
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What about Ted Tynan? Did we ever have a President from Cork?
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PP has him at 33/1.
favourite is Mairead McGuinness at 4/1.
They have a lot listed that I can’t see going for it but MMcD at 16/1 makes me anxious.
But Sean Kelly (16/1)is a phenomenal earner of votes. The first FG president?
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I can believe that
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