Leading the LP October 16, 2014
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Irish Politics.trackback
Joan Burton took Leader’s Questions this morning (and on a slight tangent isn’t Mary Lou McDonald a formidable presence in the Dáil these days – and one that clearly rattles Burton – entertaining to see the latter attempt a ‘prolier than thou’ line in relation to McDonald) and the thought the crossed my mind that perhaps her brightest prospect for the future is something along the lines of Michael Martin, leader of a party that is much diminished from its past position.
She is indeed now leader, but in the dying days of this government and one has to imagine that the only way is down from here. Unless there’s a stunning turnaround in the fortunes not merely of the LP but also of the government she’s liable to be sitting on the opposition benches, assuming she returns, with a much depleted cohort of LP TDs.
I’m curious as to what others think about her leadership, at least in this more public phase of it since the Dáil has returned. Will it help the LP or hinder it, does it have any distinctive aspects to it and has she managed to carve out any particular profile?
Pat Leahy noted in “The Price of Power” how her name was put about throughout the pre-government formation in relation to being a prospective Minister, but interestingly suggests that at no point was she really in the running for Minister of Finance, or even the current Brendan Howlin position. The former makes sense, in an FG dominated government that was always going to be the way. That latter was a bit of a surprise, given the media noise in advance of the government, but then why should it be? There was always something a little contrived about that noise. What’s also fascinating, as Leahy relates, is the way in which there was – and how can one put this – apparently something of a loyalty deficit towards Gilmore. It’s astounding stuff in a way given another narrative of the time about pulling together to ‘save the country’.
On another tangent the newly minted Deputy Fitzmaurice looked near enough shell-shocked as he sat amongst the opposition benches during Leader’s Questions. And why wouldn’t he? It can be bad enough to watch all this, to be actually amongst it must at times be traumatic. I should add that Senator Craughwell presents quite a different picture being clearly delighted to be in the Seanad. And why wouldn’t he, come to think of it?
The Cedar Lounge Revolution 
When she first came on the scene Mary Lou McDonald used to irritate me greatly, since then she has gained a pair of balls. Joan Burton is just like the Blairites over here. she tries to use all the tricks in the book, thankfully these days no one is falling for them anymore. She is unable to answer a straight question, Mary Lou’s question had no swerve. still hopefully come the next Irish election the voters will answer the question for her.
I suppose the question comrades in the LP need to ask is has the ILP long outlived its usefulness? Unlike in England Ireland has real alternatives to Irish Labour party
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Is it not possible for a woman to be strong and effective as a woman or does a woman have to “gain a pair of balls” to be regarded as effective and strong?
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Fair point Tomboktu. Just to add McDonald was an effective speaker long before she arrived in the Dáil.
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He’s in good company. A few wasted hours spent leafing through a recent political tome entitled “A Journey” has informed me that a certain Anthony Lynton Blair uses this phrase when he wants to bestow the highest compliment on members of the fairer sex.
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Burton is more intelligent than Gilmore was and more politically astute. She is an improvement from the point-of-view of the Labour Party, to answer your question. Notwithstanding her gaffes, she is better than Gilmore in terms of empathising — or seeming to empathise — with ordinary people. She recognises that repeating the same old jibes about Fianna Fáil and citing achievements with respect to social issues is not enough and there have to be deliveries on the economic front. She is more confident in herself than Gilmore and almost certainly a tougher negotiator with FG.
Still, at this stage of the game, I doubt that whoever is Leader of the Labour Party is realistically likely to prevent serious losses at the next election.
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That’s true that she can avoid the usual traps, though she did slip back a bit this week during Leader’s Questions I noticed into the “FF did this and that” stuff. Tend to agree re your last point.
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It’s very hard to assess Joan B properly.
For one thing, she very rarely finishes a sentence – by the time you’ve heard the third sub-clause, attention tends to flag. This is not just a smart-alecky jibe – a good politician has to be able to articulate their views clearly and when they can’t or don’t it tells you a lot.
More important, it’s also hard to point to any specific principles or policies she supports, especially socialist ones, even in garbled
Joan-speak.
I’ve an awful feeling that people support her simply on the basis that she can’t be as bad as Gilmore and that, in time, the view will change.
However, the 2015 budget is not great (the ESRI’s assessment that it’s regressive is a kicker as far as I’m concerned) but it’s not as bad as it might have been – maybe FG have realised that they need Labour. But I think it’s too late for Labour – they are far too low in the polls even if the election is in 2016.
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It’s interesting, McDonald made that point too re smart alecky and I have a feeling that might be important in defining Burton’s approach, because she does lay on the irony in a very heavy handed and, frankly, unfunny way. And last week’s ‘joke’ about phones was sort of indicative of another dynamic that of not quite getting some aspects of this.
That’s a very thought-provoking point you make re the Budget having a sort of LP gloss across it.
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Labour gloss
‘Budget shifts tax burden onto wealthiest – Anne Ferris TD’
http://www.labour.ie/press/2014/10/15/budget-shifts-tax-burden-onto-wealthiest-ferris/
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“Not as bad as Gilmore” will probably be like “not Tony Blair” was for Brown – necessary, but nowhere near sufficient. She shares the affliction of having waited too long as well. Pity, because in better times she might have been a good leader.
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She might have been a good leader of what?
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A ‘Labour Party’ that has become the flagbearer for middle-class liberal causes and not much else.
The remaining ties to the working-class will wither away as automated competition to people’s abilities to find unskilled work leads to a 40% decrease in jobs in the next decade or two.
And that’s a grim return to something more like the Middle Ages. Lamenting the current reversal back to the nineteenth century will seem like a case of not knowing how good we had it.
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Burton hasn’t been great but she has the fact that she didn’t say “Labours Way or Frankfurts Way” going for her. She is not GIlmore which is a huge advantage.
Funnily enough was thinking to myself today … are there any safe Labour seats?
If you were to bet on five Labour TDs being elected who would they be?
Its actually a tough enough one
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Howlin is probably safe. After that it gets trickier.
Any new Labour leader would temporarily benefit from being not Gilmore, whether that leader came from the older sell-out has-been wing of the parliamentary party or the younger empty suit wing.
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Howlin, Stagg and Wall (if they stand), either Pat Rabbitte or Éamon Maloney (one DSW seat). Shortall and Broughan will get in and probably re-join Labour eventually.
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There’s no DSW seat on the by-election figures, nor any seat in Dublin on the locals/Euros/previous by-election figures. I would not want to be a Labour canvasser in large parts of DSW at the moment.
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Don’t forget Willie Penrose. Nothing will dislodge that fella.
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I forgot him!
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