Bertiegate Redux… General Election 2007, and a weird sense of deja vu…

It may appear that I gave the impression this election was a bit tedious, a bit predictable, a bit boring as it were. In one sense I was wrong, it’s become far from predictable. But the problem is, despite the events of the last twenty four hours, with the Progressive Democrats allegedly on the point of leaving government, then remaining where they were, further allegations from Frank Connolly in the Mail on Sunday and new polls which, surprise surprise, indicate a small rise in support for Fianna Fáil it remains weirdly frustrating.

The reason for that is that the issues remain solidly locked into the original Bertiegate pattern. They predominate the political conversation and all else is shifted to the margins. In a political version of groundhog day each day repeats.

And in truth what do we know for sure? I have no idea whether the discrepancies pointed up by Frank Connolly are accurate. The Taoiseach appears to indicate, as far as one can judge from the gnomic utterances from FF spokespeople and from himself, that they are not. It seems difficult to credit that if they were, and he won the election, he could remain in place as Taoiseach once the Mahon Tribunal reopened. One way or another he would have to resign and it would be in utter disgrace, particularly since he had refused to give a proper outline of his affairs to the people. Perhaps to forestall such accusations it now appears that he intends to enlighten a grateful and anticipatory nation over the next week according to RTÉ.

This is all very odd, because it’s all very predictable. And in that respect part of me begins to wonder what is really going on. Why the cack-handed manner of the calling of the Election Why allow the situation to fester in the way that it has for a week? Why permit the almost unbelievably inevitable clash at the manifesto launch this week with Vincent Browne, a clash that anyone with half a head could see coming. Why allow the Sunday papers to drag this out further in a slow, yet politically deadly, drip drip of leaks and innuendo (although presumably it’s gratifying for FF to see how on-side the Sunday Independent is, and really does Eoghan Harris think that SF is behind all this?).

Is this a convoluted but cunning way of garnering support for Fianna Fáil? Because otherwise their actions are inexplicable. Could they be that Machiavellian? Who knows?

Cian has an impressive analysis of the travails of the opposition on Irish Election and it’s worth reflecting on just how coy Kenny and Rabbitte have become on this issue, to the point of absurdity given that it is Michael McDowell who is the one to have demanded clarification from the Taoiseach. Perhaps they are gliding above all this messy fray, but… by attempting to ignore the story they also seem somewhat detached from the central issue of the campaign.

Also interesting was the combatative presentation by Brian Cowen today, flanked by Michael Martin and Dermot Ahern. All three put up a sterling defence, very clearly laying the blame for leaks at the door of the opposition although was it me or did their declaration support him (Ahern) “until he has the opportunity to explain his position” have just a faintly ominous tinge to it? Also interesting was their presentation, all three were in shirt sleeves. Sure, it’s Sunday, but was that also something of an effort to get away from the Politburo styling of the Manifesto launch in the Mansion House?

A couple of other issues strike me. Firstly I’m surprised by the depth of the antipathy amongst some to Ahern. I find it odd that otherwise sensible people I know with strong ideological positions seem to go to pieces over him in a way which links directly into his personality. I have sound political reasons for considering him suspect – quite apart from his slapdash and arguably self serving approach to his personal financial matters. But, as I’ve noted here before Ahern is hardly sui generis in that he is a rather typical centre/centre right populist who appears to have a way with many of the public.

The idea that he is as venal as some make out seems unlikely, and I’m reminded of the comment by Lloyd Bentsen to Dan Quayle `I knew John Kennedy, and you’re no John Kennedy.’ Bertie Ahern is no Charles Haughey, or Jacques Chirac, or Silvio Berlusconi. What he is is a man who appears to have a misaprehension of his responsibility to be absolutely clear about any issues in his financial affairs that might raise questions, and his duty to answer such questions. He has, I’d suggest, a right to feel aggrieved by the leaking of information – correct in it’s entirety or utterly misinterpreted from the Tribunals. But he also has a duty to deal with these leaks as openly as is possible. Do his failings make him unfit for office? Probably not, but that’s for the Irish people to determine. And that determination can only be made when the Irish people are in full possession of the facts of the matter.

Which means effectively that it’s over to you Taoiseach…