Failure of US surge poses questions for Irish left

It was a bad weekend for US forces in Iraq. It was, as always, a worse weekend for the people of Iraq. Yet the deaths of 14 US soldiers in a couple of days in multiple attacks in different parts of the country is further proof that the ‘surge’ in US combat troops announced by Bush at the start if the year is failing.

According to figures from CNN last year, there were 814 fatalities among US troops serving in Iraq, averaging out at just almost 68 a month. In the first five months of 2007, there were 331 fatalities, 128 of them in May alone, an average of almost 92 a month.

According to a US military assessment of the situation in Baghdad, where the surge in US troops was to be initially focussed with the objective of taking control of the city before moving into other parts of the country, they control fewer than one third of the city’s neighbourhoods. In 311 of the 457 neighbourhoods, troops have either not begun operations or continue to meet ‘resistance’.

While there is yet another US combat brigade to deploy to Iraq, the surge has, as it’s opponents at the time pointed out, merely provided more and more targets for an increasingly militarily adept insurgency which does not seem to be dependent on individual leaders for it’s survival. High-profile insurgent leaders arrested or killed have seen little reduction in attacks.

So, what does this mean from our perspective? Firstly, increasing US casualties make a serious offensive against Iran more and more unlikely. As I pointed out here before, the US administration is finding it increasingly difficult to replace lost personnel and lost resources in Iraq, let alone open up a new front. This is not to eliminate the possibility of some sort of military action by the US against Iran through air-strikes or expanded raids, but the US does not have the capability to take on Iran at this point in time.

Secondly, the failure of the US surge brings into question Ireland’s complicity in it. Some of the hundreds of US troops killed in Iraq, and no doubt the thousands injured and maimed, must be among the 41,173 US troops that went through Shannon in the first four months of this year. While figures had been dropping throughout 2006, there was an increase of 5,000 troops in April (Sub-required) over the preceding month.

Shannon was, despite efforts by some, especially Roger Cole of PANA, to make the issue of Ireland’s involvement in the Iraqi occupation, not a feature of the recent election campaign though PANA did push a poll conducted for them by Lansdowne, which found 58% opposed the use of Shannon by the US military with only 19% in support.

Ahern, in his most recent statement  (Sub-required) on the subject, ruled out categorically any change in the use of Shannon following the issue being raised by Independent TD Finian McGrath in terms of the post-election negotiations for government. While the Greens negotiate with Fianna Fáil, it is worth noting that none of the Green party TDs signed a letter organised by PANA during the election campaign giving a firm commitment not to participate in any government that allows Shannon to be used by US forces. Independents McGrath and Gregory signed it, as did four of the five Sinn Féin TDs, three of Labour’s and a number of unsuccessful Green candidates.

So, where are we now? The situation in Iraq is worsening. Casualties, among both Iraqis and US forces, are increasing steadily. Iraq Body Count said in March that on every available indicator the year March ’06 to March ’07 was the worst to date and indications are the fifth year of the war will give that claim a strong run for it’s money.

Irish complicity continues and, by facilitating the surge, arguably has increased. The election has made no impact on the ruling party’s determination to continue to support US forces in Iraq and the broad anti-war movement in Ireland is, as one might expect, split with the SWP’s Irish Anti War Movement on one side, Anti-War Ireland with more of an Anarchist flavouring on the other, and groups like PANA and the NGO Peace Alliance trying to keep in with everyone. Anti-war candidates and parties in the election either lost seats or made no gains.

So, what’s the next step?