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Dublin West and how Fianna Fail and Labours Electoral messages have changed since February … October 8, 2011

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Fianna Fáil.
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To date I’ve gotten a number of leaflets from Dublin West and naturally the Electoral Messages from the parties have changed since February’s General Election.
I’m going to start with Fianna Fail and Labours leaflets and do another post on the other 3 main candidates (Paul Donnelly of Sinn Fein, Ruth Coppinger of the Socialist Party/ULA and Eithne Loftus of Fine Gael)
The most radical change is that of Fianna Fails who campaigned as the outgoing government and campaigned on the merits of its National Recovery Plan.
see Brian Lenihans Letter to voters and the Dublin West Real Plan Better Future Leaflet.
Now in opposition, has their electoral message changed? Using the leaflet I have from David McGuinness (posted here)….
First off we see Fianna Fail positioning themselves as a constructive opposition. There is the message that having another government TD won’t be of any benefit to the constituency, nor will voting for Paul Donnelly or Ruth Coppinger be any use either.

“The people of this constituency will not benefit from electing another silent Government Party backbencher, particularly as we already have two TDs sitting in Cabinet. There is also no benefit to be gained by electing another TD who opposes everything and puts ideology first.”

Then we get on to “My Priorities for Dublin West”

Mortgage Pressures
The economic and social plight of families with unsustainable mortgages must be tackled…

Protecting the Vulnerable

We have to restore the economy and protect the most vulnerable as we do so. That’s why I will oppose Government proposals to introduce extra income tax increases and to cut welfare and pensions in December’s budget.”

Supporting our Schools
I will campaign for funding for extra school places. The Government proposes to raise the school starting age to 6, to increase class sizes and to end transition year. I will oppose these short sighted cuts.

Its hard not to be cynical reading the above especially considering the welfare and education cuts carried out by the previous Government …. and that’s before we get to ‘Mortgage Pressures’… a result of the part State sponsored property boom that led to massive house prices that led to massive mortgages …. the lax regulation that led to lax standards when giving out mortgages … the corruption and bad decisions in planning ….the economic collapse …. etc etc etc

So to read the leaflet from McGuinness, you’d get the impression that Fianna Fail were never in government at all.

From Fianna Fail to Labour and Patrick Nultys leaflet from February. The main difference is that his similar leaflet for the by-election (posted here) does not have Eamon Gilmore featured at all, although it does have the candidate pictured with Joan Burton.
The message is roughly the same although in the by-election leaflet amongst other things is

“If elected Patrick will:
“….Strongly support the local campaign to retain services in Connolly Hospital”

The future of services at Connolly Hospital in Blanchardstown is one of the main issues Sinn Feins Paul Donnelly (His Connolly Hospital Leaflet) and Socialist Party/ ULA candidate Ruth Coppinger (Connolly Hospital mentioned in her newsletter too) are campaigning on.

Nultys leaflet finishes with

“Last February the people voted overwhelmingly for change. This election provides us with a chance to solidify that decision and to elect a voice for equality and justice to the Dail.”

So for Labour this by-election is an opportunity to continue on from February’s election.

Comments»

1. Daniel Sullivan - October 8, 2011

My money is on SF here, I think that neither Labour (due to being in government) nor the Socialist Party (due to the candidate being someone other than Joe Higgins) will do as well as their party support in the GE would suggest and I can’t see either FF or FG being able to bridge the gap from their levels of party support to that needed to get a seat either. SF on the other hand can offer a more formidable message of opposition and benefit from the get out the vote effort that will be happening for Martin McGuinness. I can easy the SP vote transferring much more solidly to SF than to Labour, while the FF vote might not transfer enough to FG to put them in the running. And it is possible the FG votes turn out or transfer to Labour enough for them to overhaul SF.

At least that’s the party based scenario as I’d see it at the moment.

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2. Mark P - October 8, 2011

I can only conclude from that, Daniel, that you’ve never actually been to Dublin West. A constituency where the current Sinn Fein candidate lost his council seat last time around, leaving them with a grand total of zero.

Sinn Fein aren’t in the running at all and neither are Fianna Fail. The two prospective government backbench handraisers and Ruth Coppinger are the three candidates who can win, and of the three Nulty of Labour is the favourite.

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3. Daniel Sullivan - October 8, 2011

I have to admit to not travelling out to Dublin West all that much, that said the failure of the current candidate to hold the council seat he was co-opted into just over a year before polling isn’t as a disaster as it might have been had the seat been won by him in 2004. Truth is that Labour, SP, and FG are sitting on the largest vote share going into this election but turnout will be much lower, and I can’t all three of them holding their vote shares and what they lose in share is not going to go to FF that’s for sure.

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Jolly Red Giant - October 8, 2011

Last February Dublin West returned the following numbers

LP 29%
FG 27%
SP 19%
FF 16.5%
SF 8%

Daniel – you are correct in a couple of points you make – well off the mark in others –
1. The turnout will be lower – however, that is likely to impact on SF as much as any othr party, if not more so.
2. LP, FG and FF (minus the sympathy vote form Lenihan) will drop
3. SF will increase its vote – but that will still not put it in contention
4. It is likely the SP vote will actually increase. There is a mistaken assumption that the SP vote is an exclusively Joe Higgins vote. This is incorrect.
5. In relation to SP and SF –
– in 2004 locals Ruth Coppinger was first elected in Mulhuddart and the SP got 19%. SF won a seat with Christie (remember him) on 15%. In the wards that now encompass Dublin West the SP secured 4,000 votes – SF got just under 3,000.
– in 2009 locals – with a swing to LP Ruth Coppinger was again first elected in Mulhuddart and the SP got 18%. SF lost their seat and Donnelly got 11.5%, This happened even though there was an extra seat in the ward. In total through DW the SP got 7,500 votes (in part from Joe Higgins standing in Castleknock) – SF got 2,700 votes.
6. The SP is far better organised and has a significantly bigger base than SF in Dublin West.

It is possible that SF could be in the race for a seat at the next general election. It is also possible that the SP will be looking to win 2 seats. The configuration after the election could well be 2SP/ULA, 1FG and 1SF.

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4. Brian Stafford - October 9, 2011

I have been out canvassing for Ruth and it will be a push but not impossible to win the seat but to think SF have a chance and are not just setting the candidate up for the next local elections in 2014 is baffling. I do expect Donnelly’s vote share to increase on the GE result which transfer wise might help Ruth over the line.

Again this is a constituency were SF are playing a waiting game in the expectation of Labour’s inevitable decline and FF’s John Woo style slow motion death.

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5. Local Yokel - October 9, 2011

Where did Ruth Coppinger get that enormous loud hailer? I think it spoils an otherwise good leaflet.

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6. Playing The Race Card In Ireland « An Sionnach Fionn - October 12, 2011

[…] Dublin West and how Fianna Fail and Labours Electoral messages have changed since February … (cedarlounge.wordpress.com) […]

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7. Jolly Red Giant - October 16, 2011

Candidates just been on RTE radio

Ruth Coppinger did well

I though Donnelly was completely exposed on SF’s strategy on the Household tax. His final comment ‘the SP already have a seat so you should vote for SF’.

Clearly the other parties – and especially SF – are spreading rumours that if Ruth is elected Joe Higgins will be parachuted into a different constituency or go back to Europe. The implication being ‘keep Joe in Dublin West – don’t vote for Ruth’. The SP needs to be more definitive on this – ‘Joe Higgins will not be standing anywhere else other than Dublin West’.

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8. Dublin West and more leaflets from the By (or Bye) Election « The Cedar Lounge Revolution - October 18, 2011

[…] following up on a previous post concerning Fianna Fail and Labours by Election Leaflets it’s back to the matter of more candidates leaflets and how the message has changed since the […]

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