Fianna Fail and The Local, European and By-Elections

The great news for Fianna Fail from the Local Elections is that they are once again the biggest party in the Republic. That’s a tonic for the troops, a jibe to hit Sinn Fein, Fine Gael and whoever else is listening, puts a pep back into that FF step. Over the past few weeks various Fianna Fail politicians and supporters have been at pains to try and develop the narrative that they were the real story of The Local Elections, it wasn’t Sinn Fein’s success , Labours demise or the increased number of ‘Others’, the real story was Fianna Fail being the biggest party at local government again.
“They had us written off in 2011 but we are back!” was the mantra.
When you have a hobby like mine during elections if you see a local party office open as you pass by you tend to go in and ask for leaflets. I called into a number of different local party offices during the course of the campaign including two Fianna Fail ones. Naturally I’d have a chat, explain the hobby and be asked was I a party man myself. What struck me about the conversations in the FF offices was that it all revolved around various Fine Gael and Labour Ministers, Shatter was particularly in vogue. It was all personalities as opposed to policies.
In various media outlets since the elections Fianna Fail have attributed their success to their policies and their ‘Renewal’. That may be a small part of their recovery and they had many enthusiastic young candidates (as did all the other parties) but the main reason is that the various scandals, mishaps and errors of judgement by the current Government has led many voters to think that Fine Gael and Labour are just as bad as Fianna Fail. That there is little or no difference between them. A negative plus for Fianna Fail as it were. Some of those votes famously ‘lent’ to Fine Gael in 2011 came back because the voters saw no improvement or difference. In the past though when Fianna Fail went up , Fine Gael went down, that certainly isn’t happening to the same extent (if at all_ anymore .
Countrywide they polled really well but in Louth, The four Dublin Local Authorities, Galway City Council, Wicklow and Waterford they polled less than 20% of the votes, indeed just 14.3% in Dublin City Council and 12.5% in South Dublin County Council.
Dublin is still a problem for them and whilst Adrian Kavanaghs projections based on the Local Election results have them winning 8 seats in Dublin, at the present moment I can see them probably win four. Three former Fianna Fail TDs contested in Dublin, Sean Haughey, Mary Hanafin and Charlie O’Connor. They were all elected.
Haughey polling particularly well may actually cause a problem for them. If I were an FF strategist I would only field one candidate in each of the Dublin Constituencies. Haugheys success should be enough to get him on the ticket in Dublin Bay North ….. Where Averil Power will surely also want to run. I’m pretty sure FF are desperate for her to win a seat. The Mary Hanafin vote was interesting too in that it was a Mary Hanafin vote not a Fianna Fail vote. At the drop of a hat she was able to assemble a team of 80 to 100 canvassers, in effect a Mary Hanafin Machine. I wonder will many of the new FF Councillors /prospective General Election candidates be able to call on an organisation like that?
Another problem for them Dublin wise, is having no TD in Dublin or its bordering counties. The longer this Dail has gone on the bigger this problem appears. They have a very limited number of decent media performers and I may be wrong but I don’t see Niall Collins or Timmy Dooley appealing to a Dublin Electorate. It was noted that as soon as the Campaign was over Willie O’Dea suddenly broke his radio silence and was all over the airwaves.
The rise of Sinn Fein is a problem for Fianna Fail, not just in the obvious way of Sinn Fein winning votes, there is a large section of voters who despise the thoughts of Sinn Fein in government. So this is another issue that Fianna Fail has to tackle but can’t…… their intentions regarding coalition with Sinn Fein. Fine Gael will surely not go into government with Sinn Fein but there are suspicions that any whiff of power and FF would jump in with SF. Of course Michael Martin has said they wont , but everytime he does it seems Dev Og emerges and says that Fianna Fail have a lot more in common with Sinn Fein than they do with Fine Gael. I’m told that the further West you go the more FF members are in favour of it. Its a strange one but I certainly can see it impacting on Fianna Fails chances, especially in getting transfers. I gather that yesterday Michael Martin stated that they wouldn’t go into coalition with Fine Gael either. …
Then we have the by elections starting with Dublin West. The Fianna Fail vote dropped by over 4% since the 2011 By-Election, David McGuinness also slipped from second in first preferences in 2011 to 3rd in this years by-election. There were weak Fine Gael and Labour candidates. Come the next General Election Leo Varadkar will be back as will Joan Burton. You would have to assume Varadkar , Sinn Fein and Ruth Coppinger would get in leaving McGuinness and Joan Burton fighting it out for the final seat.
On the other By Election in Longford Westmeath the Fianna Fail vote dropped by 1.5% from the 2011 General Election. There were some geographical issues at play but even still it wasn’t a fantastic performance. One other thing that caught my eye in that by-election was that over the course of the counts until his elimination at the penultimate count, Paul Hogan of Sinn Fein received more transfers than Aengus O’Rourke of Fianna Fail even from the FF genepool candidate Kevin ‘Boxer’ Moran.
The European Elections were a bit of a disaster winning just the one seat in Brian Crowleys seat in Ireland South. The Fianna Fail vote in Dublin dropped almost 6% from their 2009 vote. Lacking a TD in Dublin they really needed Mary Fitzpatrick to win but she didn’t even come close. In Midlands North West the combined Fianna Fail first preference vote was 113,946 compared to Marian Harkins 68,986. They didn’t get transfers and the transfer from Thomas Byrne to Pat The Cope was just over 50% which for Fianna Fail was quite low. In Ireland South they outpolled Fine Gael but it was Fine Gael who won two seats there as only around 42% of Crowleys surplus transferred to running mate Kieran Hartley.
If rumours are to be believed John McGuinness reckons he is the answer to Fianna Fails woes, much of which himself and others attribute to Michael Martin. I’d imagine a change in leader with McGuinness at the helm would only make things worse…….. … and as Labour seem to be finding out, a change in leader doesn’t exactly lead to a jump in the polls.