The Republic: forming the next government and other potential problems.

Reading another exhaustive analysis by Adrian Kavanagh of the latest polling figures, and an analysis which is, as always couched in the necessary caveats, there’s little question that on his projections government formation in this state is now becoming incredibly difficult.

The figures are:

Independents and Others 32% (up 9%), Sinn Fein 22% (down 2%),  Fianna Fail 21% (up 1%), Fine Gael 19% (down 5%), Labour Party 6% (down 3%). 

And he suggests that his projection point to the following outcome:

Fianna Fail 36, Fine Gael 32, Sinn Fein 36, Labour Party 0, Independents and Others 52. 

Of course there’s still, what, eighteen months until the last date an election can be called, but… we have to be aware of the fact that the broad trends in support have been remarkably consistent across the last few years, those being, ever increasing SF support, increasing Ind/Other support, failing LP support, decreasing FG support and essentially static FF support.

In other words, even were we to shave – say – ten per cent off the Ind/Other category and five per cent off SF, both will return significantly increased numbers over the 2011 figures. That’s almost a given.

Okay, not perhaps the 52 TDs indicated in the above, and SF will be doing amazingly well to get 36.

But… the broader political context, whatever about the sudden calls from inside FG – finally waking up to just how serious this actually is for them, or so it would appear – for matters to be taken in charge by March by the Taoiseach, would appear unforgiving for the government. Water charges as an issue continue to exercise. There will be a protest next week, there will be more in the new year. There is the LPT. Whether minor tax changes will blunt those is very much open to question.

And here’s something to consider. Think about all the rhetoric about ‘tough decisions’ and ‘reform’ and ‘cutting spending to the bone’, and so on from the right of centre and parts of the centre. Well, we’ve just seen the limitations of that approach politically as the establishment parties continue to lose support or flatline.

And on the current figures were an election called and a government attempted to be formed, well, let’s just say it will be difficult.

FF and FG between them can only pull together 68 TDs. Just to get to half of the 158 TDs in the next Dáil they’d require 10 other TDs. One can only hope that Shane Ross’s Alliance is up and running and has the requisite 10. Actually, it will need a couple more, to be on the safe side. Grim prospect this, but then a revamped Reform Alliance might well come into the picture. Imagine that, FF/FG/the Ross Alliance and the Reform Alliance.

A ‘national’ government of FF/FG and SF would offer 104 TDs. Commanding, but surely only something that could be put together in extremis.

Independents and Others and SF would on paper have the numbers, 88. But we all know that that is utter nonsense. There is no way that the component groups could or would want to work together.

So what’s likely? I can’t say to be honest. A rapid second election? Possibly. That ‘national’ government? Perhaps. Unlikely. Sure, 1 in 3 is unlikely to vote for Ind/Other, but… what mechanisms will see support flow back to FG/FF and LP or towards SF in sufficient volume to allow for government formation?

Which leads to a further thought. Look at how useless FG/FF and LP attacks have been on SF. It just doesn’t make any difference. Perhaps attacks on Ind/Other about political stability will get through to the electorate, but… the lack of credibility of those parties in the eyes of said electorate suggests that voters are unlikely to return to them.

We may well see yet more go to SF, but also is this the point at which a ‘new’ formation becomes feasible? Perhaps a revamped FFnua, or Creighton’s right party (though I suspect it would have to be a damn sight more populist than she countenances), or a solidifying of the Ross Alliance. Forza Italia stepped in to replace the Christian Democrats in Spain Italy, same old whine, different bottle.

And if all this seems like hypothesising of the most extreme kind, well, so it is. But the current polls are unprecedented in Irish political history. As SonofStan asked with the news of the poll, ‘we’re not in Kansas anymore, are we?’. Too true. Where we actually are though is impossible to say.