Predictions at the end of the General Election 2016 campaign? February 25, 2016
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.trackback
We had a post on this topic back three weeks ago at the start of the campaign. We asked..
Anyone care to give a broad prediction as to outcome (or a very defined prediction!) – will it be an FG/LP coalition by the skin of its teeth, an FG/LP coalition dependent upon Ind/Others? An FG/FF coalition or an FG government with or without others functioning as a minority government with FF support.
And add to that the state of the left – however one defines it, further left, including SF, others, etc? Strong, weak, what? Any other predictions?
We’ve been through three weeks of campaigning, seen numerous dynamics come into play, whingers or is it whiners, two Healy-Rae’s, the Special Criminal Court, the curious case of RENUA and so on and so forth. So in light of those weeks, anyone care to call it, or to amend their original views?
The Cedar Lounge Revolution 
As many people here have commented, polls have mostly been MOE stuff and seat predictions aren’t an exact science even if the polls were far more accurate. But it does seem likely that FG / Lab will be too far short of a majority to return even with added independents +SDs (who are surely available for coalition on almost any terms).
A slightly less safe bet is that SF probably have the nous not to go into government with FF as junior partner … though you never know given that their chances of being the leading opposition party seem to be somewhat receding. On that basis the MSM push for FG-FF, either as coalition or FG minority with FF support, seems the least unlikely option. Not so great in terms of my own hopes for a weak government that would have to make a reasonable number of concessions to popular pressure in order to keep going, though I would say there is a fair chance water charges will be put on the long finger (rather than abolished) and that we might see a free vote on holding a referendum on the 8th, neither of which would be trivial gains.
With an FF-FG coalition, SF would be the unquestioned leading opposition party, to their benefit in terms of popular support and they would certainly know how to use this well. I would imagine given MSM bias that a larger FF providing support on issues of confidence would be treated as the main opposition party (and a 4-party approach adopted in other cases), which would be better for the left in terms of enabling other parties to make their case.
I want to believe that the LP, like the GP before them, will have blown their credit sufficiently with the electorate – but also be sufficiently wedded to “we were right!” not to be able to capitalise on being in opposition, but there is certainly a sizeable group of what were once FF supporters and have tried Labour and SF. It isn’t clear that these voters are willing or able to really grasp that the sort of government they hope for (in terms of policies) is not really on the cards, and some might fall back towards an LP in opposition, particularly if (say) the SDs and some other soft left independents were absorbed for added credibility.
Still (and sharing Oireachtas Report’s positive assessment of the serious left’s role in the last Dail in terms of raising critical issues) we will see a good spectrum of smart and energetic left TDs. The water charges movement seems to have taken some of the edge out of traditional sectarianism on the left and perhaps also the gloss has worn off the idea of One Big Left Party, though we might see some looser form of cooperation.
Most importantly though given the likely shape of government is surely the continuation and development of movements outside parliament (but in many cases with allies within). Anti-austerity movements will not be demobilised even if they win on water charges (it is possible as many hope that housing and resistance to evictions will become the next flashpoint for activism) and on foot of the marriage referendum and the debate about the 8th amendment gender-based movements are not going away quickly. We might hope to see a development of union and workplace-based radicalism under the right conditions. Lastly anti-fracking movements are well-placed given the collapse in global oil prices and the relatively small size of fracking companies compared to Shell etc. to carry out sustained resistance.
Right, better do some work. Not a very cheery picture but one that does confirm that real politics is not just in parliament or rather that investing too heavily in electoralism is not a winning strategy for the Irish left – for “all the eggs in one basket” reasons.
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Should have added wrt movements that the LP’s increasingly desperate search for policy concessions to offer to NGOs in hopes that the latter can deliver popular support is likely to come to a fairly abrupt end in the case of any FG – FF arrangement. Which is certainly good news for movements in that the broker role this has handed to a self-selected organisational layer within movements has been pretty damaging – as is the inevitably legislative- and media-oriented focus it promotes.
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FG+ whatever is left of Labour + certain independent TDs; Ross, Healy Rae(s), the usual. FF to keep that minority govt strung along before another election, after the next Downturn perhaps. BTW as someone who contributes about one unconstructive comment per year to this site, its mere existence and maintenance is a wonderful thing and a necessary antidote to Irish MSM. Thank u to all
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+1. I wish there was something similar for Britain: you don’t want to read all the papers directly because the bias and mendacity is too much to bear, but you want to know what’s going on as well and what people are talking about. The CLR is a great filter; you get a sense of what’s being written without having to breath in the fumes at source.
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Genuinely appreciate that Ed, and your comments are an essential part of the mix too, but it’s doing our mental health no good having to read a lot of those papers!
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I know! I had to stop reading the Guardian in the last couple of months, the anti-Corbyn/anti-Labour stuff was so ludicrous.
It’s one of the frustrating things about the decline of political blogging over the last few years; all the energy seems to have gone into social media, most of the left blogs I used to check are either defunct or updated very rarely. People tend to just post articles, often from mainstream news sites, and just add a line or two of their own as a comment. I’m really glad that the CLR has kept going in defiance of that trend: you can’t really say much in a Twitter post, and Facebook is much more inward-looking and ephemeral, a week later and all the stuff you wrote has effectively vanished. One thing I’ve found myself doing lately is clicking on the links to older CLR posts and seeing what we all thought back in 2006 or 2009 or 2011, it’s interesting to have that snapshot.
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There’s only one prediction I’m going to make and that’s that a stack of Independents are going to be election, many of whom will be broadly accepted by dint of their ‘left’ creds, however given the shaky state of the Gregory group in DC I think it’s worth considering these words from Joe Higgins from an interview with Kathy Sheridan in the IT:
All those indos that get elected tomorrow, how many of them are going to leave something worthwhile behind when they vacate the Dáil in years to come? Or just be an ephemeral presence?
http://www.irishtimes.com/election-2016/kathy-sheridan-runs-rule-over-no-surrender-socialist-joe-higgins-1.2547135
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This is a really important point you make. Looking at the legacy of independents from the left it is difficult to discern anything other than goodwill, often diffuse. I’m not dissing them but the dynamic is problematic.
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We talked about this before, the socialist saint syndrome. Nothing the Irish establishment like more than the lone voice of integrity, the Noel Browne, the Kemmy. Even Gregory, though probably more prickly, died greatly admired by those who, though they shared none of his politics still thought he was proof positive of the merits of the system.
It lets the rest of them off the hook, having someone to do the Integrity for them. I’d rather a left they were scared of.
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I wonder how many voters will give high preferences to some smaller parties and independents, and then stop and how many will continue with lower preferences for candidates from the larger parties who are local or they perceive as being ‘not the worst’, giving those older or larger parties a seat boost as independents, particularly weaker ones, are eliminated.
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Just listening to the first report I’ve heard on R4 about d’election. We’re a young country with a revolutionary heritage. And resourceful. Grand, entirely.
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Straight from the Alexander Cockburn guide on how to be a foreign correspondent:
https://groups.google.com/forum/?fromgroups#!msg/soc.culture.indian/arVmYlEtnYc/j9b-tH5lK-AJ
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That’s a really wonderful article: “Nothing of any interest has ever been written about New Zealand, and indeed very little is known about it.”
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One interesting point made in today’s Phoenix is that a factor pushing FG towards coalition with FF (assuming they have any choice in the matter) is that otherwise they run the risk of the government not having a Seanad majority. This would then have various knock-on implications in terms of not being able to initiate legislation from the Seanad and the latter’s ability to reject statutory instruments. Don’t know enough about d’upper house to judge either their maths or their assessment of how much it would matter to not control it, but passing the point on here for what it’s worth.
Of course the fat lady (whoever she was) starts singing tomorrow at 7 and by the end of the weekend, however bad the new executive committee for managing the affairs of the bourgeoisie, we can take our schadenfreude from just how many of the last lot we won’t have to listen to any longer. Got to take our satisfaction where we can!
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IEL made the point Labour will have very little leverage in relation to getting Senators elected.
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Sorry IEL, I missed that.
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Fine Gael 55
Fianna Fail 41
Sinn Fein 25
Independents 17
Labour 10
AAA/PBP 6
Social Democrats 3
Renua 1
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On second thoughts. Independent 18 Labour 9.
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I’ll play – but I’m increasingly out of touch…
SF will do better than polled with 24-28
FG 50-55
FF 30-35
Labour(sic) 4
AAA/PBP 6
As for the rest – no idea. Hopefully plenty of leftish independents. SDs may surprise.
FG/FF will be the only option for ‘stability’ (= further screwing of the poor and welfare for the rich).
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They’ll be (sic) alright.
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Weather doesn’t look great outside of Dublin.
Do you think it plays a role in discouraging those who don’t have access to a car?
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Small enough role. They’re used to the rain. They’ll get to vote if they are that way inclined – lifts from neighbours, lifts from local party activists. Good rural solidarity – most people wouldn’t even have to look for lifts, their local neighbour friend who usually drops them places will call over for them when they are going to vote themselves.
Some people where you live gewerker sell up everything and move in with the locals down the country here to try to get a bit of that lifestyle.
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Could FG go lower than 50 seats?? FF bounce back and labour collpase leaving them high and dry for transfers to get a second seat??
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