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An Exit Poll February 26, 2016

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Uncategorized.
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Fine Gael 26.1 per cent;
Labour 7.8 per cent;
Fianna Fail 22.9 per cent;
Sinn Fein 14.9;
AAA/PBP 3.6 per cent;
Greens 3.5 per cent;
Social Democrats 2.8 per cent;
Renua 2.6 per cent;
Others 28.3 per cent.

and another one due in the morning

Comments»

1. WorldbyStorm - February 27, 2016

Well now. Not entirely surprised if it is accurate. Stand out features, no turn to FG or LP. Everyone bar FF at the lower end of their bands of support (SD particularly striking in that respect). GP probably not concentrated enough to get a seat. AAA-PBP disappointing though should ensure seats safe and maybe one extra. If close to correct Martin probably happiest person this evening.

Ind/Other vote has grown massively hasn’t it?

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Jolly Red Giant - February 27, 2016

Given that the AAA/PBP were standing in 24 constituencies – 3.6% is going to put the AAA/PBP into contention for the target seats – particularly given that there is a massive indo vote that will largely transfer to anyone but FF/FG/LP

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WorldbyStorm - February 27, 2016

Perhaps, perhaps.

Liked by 1 person

shea - February 27, 2016

“particularly given that there is a massive indo vote that will largely transfer to anyone but FF/FG/LP”

Wouldn’t those independent candidates be more likely to be out front?

It’s not in Kansas anymore level high.

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2. Liberius - February 27, 2016

Looking back over the exit polls for both 2011 and the 2014 euros, the Greens tend to get overstated, so keep that in mind for tomorrow. Of course the numbers would be off as a whole if the urban/rural turnout differential isn’t the same as the pollsters think; remember it is still a poll with poll-like sampling problems.

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3. 6to5against - February 27, 2016

Martin might be happy, but he will have some serious decisions to make…..FF/FG under 50%….. soc dems might be disappointed but much of their support was in areas where they had no candidates -3% could still deliver…. greens must be happy, with or without seats – they have reestablished a bridgehead…..SF must be a little disappointed, though the long term plan is still in place….

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4. irishelectionliterature - February 27, 2016

Dublin Numbers Fine Gael strongest at 25.4 SF just about 15. FF just below 15. AAA 7.8. GP 5 pc. Renua 4.2, SD 3.5. Others 34.9! … no word of Labour in that though… was it so bad they are banded with Others already?

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Jolly Red Giant - February 27, 2016

that’s already 110% without LP – so the numbers are way off

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Jolly Red Giant - February 27, 2016

the total others was 35%

LP on 9.4%

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Aonrud ⚘ - February 27, 2016

I assume all these Others figures are including the small parties as well as listing them separately.

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WorldbyStorm - February 27, 2016

Very interesting that SDs outpolled in Dublin by RENUA.

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5. sonofstan - February 27, 2016

“In Dublin, Fine Gael has emerged as the largest party with 25.7 per cent of the vote, followed by Sinn Féin with 15.4 per cent, according to the poll. Fianna Fáil is on 14.6 per cent, Labour 9.4 per cent and others received 34.9 per cent”

From the IT report

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sonofstan - February 27, 2016

That’s a few labour seats at least?

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WorldbyStorm - February 27, 2016

A few yeah.

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Aonrud ⚘ - February 27, 2016

It looks then like Labour will manage more than 10 seats. Not to focus on the cynical and negative, but I was taking succour from their wipe-out…

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irishelectionliterature - February 27, 2016

A lot will depend on if they are ahead of the second FG….

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RosencrantzisDead - February 27, 2016

So was I. Of course, Joan may still lose her seat. sure, she didn’t give herself a first pref!

14.6% for FF in Dublin. Is that an increase in vote share from 2011?

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Aonrud ⚘ - February 27, 2016

True. I’m not well up on the various prediction methods, but I assume the large Others group and number of people in the running for last seats makes them much harder. That and the new constituencies.

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6. Pól - February 27, 2016

As tiny as it is, I do wonder at the Green vote. Surely no party could be more discredited? It’s difficult to keep perspective; my first response to that poll was that it highlights the need for FG&FF to coalesce so as to finally do them down-but still, FF % in the low 20s? Unthinkable, a decade ago. Sinn Féin ought to be disappointed, and it occurs to me that the impact of Syriza’s travails last year on SF may have been underestimated.

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sonofstan - February 27, 2016

You would think, but I know quite a few people who think ‘sure they tried their best’ and for whom a bike and and/or a beard says more than a costed health policy

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sonofstan - February 27, 2016

And sure they all swear by yoga and homeopathy anyway.

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7. fergal - February 27, 2016

Early days yet- others will have an awful lot of transfers to give- surely his will suit other indos, smaller parties and sf? Could be in for a lot of dogfights over last seats
Sample is 5,000 which is huge- rte exit poll for last genral election was very close to real result- except for ff which was under represented
If true that’s a huge drop in fg’s vote since last time

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Tomboktu - February 27, 2016

Are there more independents this time? Certainly, we have the R2C and the Ross groups, but it’s hard to know if that branding meant anything to voters.

The problem for us at this stage is that we don’t know how the independents and others will transfer.

Will significant numbers of voters kick against the mainstream, but across a range of independents for their first preferences and then transfer to the local “she’s not the worst” FG, Lab, or FF candidate after 1 or 2 or 3?

Or will those voters keep going outside the bigger parties and mainly funnel to a single independent or ‘other’?

Or will they become non-transferable as the weaker independents or ‘others’ are eliminated?

One possible metric when all is done will be whether the proportion of non-transferable votes at the end of all the counts is higher than in previous general elections.

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8. Tomboktu - February 27, 2016

Doing the silly thing and applying that to my constituency (DMW), I see the former FF TD back in, and FG down to 1 (from 2). And then SF would be far enough ahead to secure a seat, leaving a slate to take the fourth.

Now, this is where it gets pure mathematical speculation, but …

There are seven candidates in the “Other”, but we have not Renua, so I’ll add that 2.3% to the “other” to give a total of 18.4% to divvy up between the seven “others”.

That gives an average of 2.6% each.

The poll does not have enough information to predict. (And that’s fine: it isn’t meant to at the level of a single constituency.) But use some local knowledge to sift the remaining candidates…

Labour has an outgoing TD.
One of the “others” is a former TD (now a Ross independent, previously GP) and current councillor.
The AAA candidate is a councillor in his second term
An Independent (R2C) is a first-term councillor.
I saw a lot of the SD candidate in the campaign, through a combination of heavy postering and me following her on twitter (I follow most of the others, but she tweeted heavily).

There is a world of difference in that last seat going to Lab, R2C, the Ross group, the SDs, or the AAA. And I don’t know how their voters will transfer between those candidates.

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WorldbyStorm - February 27, 2016

“There is a world of difference in that last seat going to Lab, R2C, the Ross group, the SDs, or the AAA. And I don’t know how their voters will transfer between those candidates.”

+1

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Tomboktu - February 27, 2016

irishelectionstats.com says it would be SF, FF, FF, AAA in my constituency, based on a range of polls.

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9. glas - February 27, 2016

there is more in the minds of gp voters than capital-v-social.

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Garibaldy - February 27, 2016

Yeah but a planned approach to the economy can yield positive environmental results. Capitalism never will.

Plus any Green Party that cuts public transport on a capital city is a laughing stock.

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Pól - February 27, 2016

Would that there was that much. I suppose the transfer of massive private debt from the bankers to the populace of our benighted 26 counties was instrumental in tackling global climate change.

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10. WorldbyStorm - February 27, 2016

Interesting …Irish Polling Report:

https://irishpollingreport.wordpress.com/2016/02/27/exit-to-the-right/

FG 26.1% 52
FF 22.9% 41
SF 14.9% 22
LB 7.8% 11
GP 3.5% 3
AAA/PBP 3.6% 4
SocDems 2.8% 4
Renua 2.6% 2
OTH 15.8% 19
100.0% 158

As is this:

Adrian Kavanagh:
https://adriankavanaghelections.org/2016/02/26/irish-times-ipsos-mrbi-exit-poll-26th-february-quick-overview/

Fine Gael 47, Independents and Others 41, Fianna Fail 39, Sinn Fein 23, Labour Party 8

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WorldbyStorm - February 27, 2016

I don’t know. GP seats? Perhaps but where?

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Tomboktu - February 27, 2016

I don’t know. GP seats? Perhaps but where?
Turn the question around: ‘but who?’

Ryan? Cuffe? A councillor who hasn’t a national profile?

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sonofstan - February 27, 2016

Cuffe didn’t run.
Ryan could do it and maybe Mark Deary.

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Tomboktu - February 27, 2016

I love IPR’s caveat: “I have half a bottle of wine in me, and so if these are on the button I get *bonus* points.

And Adrian Kavanagh reflects my point: “My model … may well not pan out this time, given the … growing strength (and sheer diversity within) the Independents and Others grouping.

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Liberius - February 27, 2016

Bets meet hedge, with several servings of vodka to boot…

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11. CL - February 27, 2016

F.F to double its number of seats; reports of the demise of the Soldiers of Destiny were greatly exaggerated.
S.F to increase its representation by about one third, which will give them a few more than F.F had in the last Dail.
The votes of course have still to be counted.

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12. Pasionario - February 27, 2016

The cumulative swing against FG and Labour (22 percent) is as big as the one against FF in 2011.

Doesn’t look like the cumulative left vote (including SF, excluding the Greens and Labour) is more than quarter of voters.

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13. leftcooperation - February 27, 2016

Very difficult to see any other government than some arrangement with FF and FG. Perhaps with SD or Labour or Renua depending on final seat allocation.

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14. sonofstan - February 27, 2016

FG even lower on the RTE poll 24.1

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sonofstan - February 27, 2016

Sorry, 24.8
Much better 🙂

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15. Jolly Red Giant - February 27, 2016

AAA/PBP on 4.7% on the RTE poll puts 7seats definitely on the cards.

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Gewerkschaftler - February 27, 2016

Here’s hoping and Labour in single figures.

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RosencrantzisDead - February 27, 2016

A good percentage of second prefs. too. Hopefully it should translate into some more seats. Best of luck to them and all left candidates.

Liked by 1 person

WorldbyStorm - February 27, 2016

+1

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