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-5% May 11, 2016

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Some intriguing stats in this piece by Gerry Moriarty in the Irish Times in relation to the fall in the nationalist/republican vote in the North by 5%.

The DUP won 29.2 per cent of the vote compared to 24 per cent for Sinn Féin. Where DUP leader Arlene Foster will be happier is that she held her 38 seats, and her party just dropped its vote by 0.8 per cent, whereas Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness saw Sinn Féin lose a seat and its vote drop by 2.9 per cent.
The UUP took 12.6 per cent of the vote, the SDLP 12 per cent and Alliance 7 per cent. The UUP vote was down 0.7 per cent, the SDLP down 2.2 per cent and Alliance down 0.7 per cent.
Overall, the Sinn Féin and SDLP vote was down by 5.1 per cent.

And actual votes were lower this time around than five years ago too.

Moriarty suggests that:

Part of it may be to do with a perception among some nationalists that Sinn Féin, in endorsing the Fresh Start Agreement, signed up to British government welfare cuts. It could also have to do with a more general disenchantment with the stop-start-stalled Stormont politics of recent years. It could be younger people of a Catholic background not being so caught up with Orange-Green politics.

Even if that latter is so then there doesn’t appear to be an equal shift in unionist voters, does there? Combined the DUP and UUP lost barely 1.5% on last time. What does that tell us?

And that variation is equally intriguing. I’ve been looking for transfers, anyone know a site that has them?

Comments»

1. roddy - May 11, 2016

Results services were piss poor.I was able to get a grasp of transfers in some constituencies by for example in west Belfast seeing how much each candidate advanced in count 2 when the surplus of Carroll from count one was allocated. It meant subtracting each candidates first count total from their second count total but was too laborious to do in every constituency.While it was obvious that Carrolls surplus was being transferred ,in other areas the media outlets were not even bothering to say which candidates surpluses or eliminations were being distributed at each stage.Reporters at the various counts had’nt a F—— clue what they were talking about and this was obvious when the studio anchors were asking them questions.There has emerged a generation of air heads in Northern journalism who know nothing about politics or its mechanisms.

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irishelectionliterature - May 11, 2016

Watched BBCs Assembly Elections coverage and it was brutal. It didn’t even show count details. Thats half the fun of PR!

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irishmarxism - May 11, 2016

You’re right about the quality of political analysis. The downward trend in nationalist participation had previously been put down to their being so contented that some didn’t feel the need to vote, which is impossible to sustain given the vote for People before Profit.

https://irishmarxism.net/2016/05/07/the-norn-iron-elections-a-few-rays-shine-a-light-on-the-darkness/

The comment below shows that the ‘contented nationalist’ prejudice, predicated on a rose-tinted view of the peace process, is matched by the willful blindness to the vote evident from the hoary old prejudice that Catholics will simply out-breed the Protestants.

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2. gendjinn - May 11, 2016

Ask yourself this – which group is likely feeling more secure about the present and the future – the one that marshals all its strength to face down the enemy with not a crack in the facade of discipline, or the group that couldn’t really be that bothered to make it to the polls and when they do they vote outside the tribal block? And no Alliance is not neutral they are still Unionist lite.

Overall, not in the slightest bit concerned that nationalists turnout at in NI elections is stagnating and decreasing. Has nothing to do with how people will vote on the border. You will get GFA level turnout for that referendum and the demographics are firmly, irrevocably on the side of re-unification.

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Joe - May 11, 2016

Are you Tim Pat Coogan in disguise?

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gendjinn - May 11, 2016

Nice one🙂 But nope.

Just always been a big fan of making love, not war. And sure shagging for victory may not be the most morally reputable approach, but it sure beats all the alternatives so far.

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CL - May 11, 2016

‘ demographics are firmly, irrevocably on the side of re-unification.’-
Name one reputable demographic study which supports this.

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gendjinn - May 11, 2016

* Take all of the electoral data (WM/LG/EU various assemblies and referenda from late 1960s on.
* Align that with all of the census data over the same period.
horseman @ ulsterisdoomed did much the same analysis. Couple of other folks that have been around sluggerotoole have done their own and they are all pretty close in terms of %s and predicted dates.

Figuring out if/when the border would go is a fun puzzle. I’ve been playing around with models for 15 years now, looking at all the data and reading around the events/people.

I reckon 2015/2016 was parity in community identity. What that means politically is not as clear. The previous strong correlation between community identity and border is weakening. Whether the border goes or not will be very close, much closer than the Scottish referendum.

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CL - May 11, 2016

That’s all very well, but name one reputable demographer who supports the notion that “the demographics are firmly, irrevocably on the side of re-unification.”

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gendjinn - May 11, 2016

Why? I’ve done the research myself. Happy to talk the data but this appeal to authority? It’s problematic given the paucity of such studies, it’s mostly armchair psephologists crunching the data.

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3. irishelectionliterature - May 11, 2016

One Side effect from the lower turnout in Nationalist areas is that Fianna Fail are increasingly eager to run in the next Assembly elections. There’s a feeling among many in FF that they would attract those that are fed up with the SDLP and Sinn Fein.
They of course see themselves as the real Republican party and being an all Ireland party would pull the heartstrings of much of the FF grassroots.
The FFer who ran as an Independent in Newry and Armagh polled very poorly.

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4. Paddy Healy - May 11, 2016

As can be seen below the main anti-establishment votes were in predominantly nationalist areas
SPNI candidates polled weakly in the strong unionist areas in which they stood.
Neither PBP nor SPNI cadidates advocated or mentioned the objective of a united Ireland or even a socialist united Ireland
Their programmes were entirely reformist and and advocated solutions within the framework of the 6 counties and British Sovereignty over the territory
Mevertheless I welcome the strong showing in nationalist areas as it shows that the Sinn Féin policy of implementing British Tory cuts will be strongly resisted by the masses

Assembly Results—First Count Vote

South Belast
Sean Burns Cross-community Labour Alternative (AAA/SPNI) 871
East Antrim
Conor Sheridan Cross-community Labour alternative (AAA/SPNI) 551
East Belfast
Courtney Robinson Cross-Community Labour Alternative (AAA/SPNI) 517

West Belfast
Gerry Carroll (PBP/SWP) 8,299
Conor Campbell WP 532

Foyle
Eamonn McCann PBP/SWP 4,176
Anne McCloskey Independent Republican 3,410

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fergal - May 11, 2016

Paddy- People Before Profit had a candidate in North Belfast- Ferguson- who got around 1,300- not that much off the combined totals for the aaa/spni candidates

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Paddy Healy - May 11, 2016

Thanks for the correction
This just adds to the preponderance of the anti-establishment vote in strong nationalist areas
This is to be expected. Despite the many heroic protestant individuals(shop stewards, republicans etc) over the decades, the bulk of protestant workers have still not broken from extremely backward ROYALISM and UNIONISM. Capitulation to this never works for the left.

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Jolly Red Giant - May 11, 2016

Just because Paddy once again needs to be corrected for his snide reference – there is no such thing as SPNI – and furthermore, the AAA is not organised in the North.

It should also be noted that all three Labour Alternative candidates were standing in their first election – Conor Sheridan is 24 years old, Sean Burns is 19 years old and Courtney Robinson is 18 years old. The vote for all three candidates was respectable and, more importantly, mobilised a growing number of young people during the campaign who then worked for the three candidates.

Of course Paddy can lecture the Socialist Party all he wants – and then he can point out how successful the WUAG have been in building a national party, how successfully they have built in the North, how many votes the WUAG received in the Assembly election and maybe he could provide copies of the WUAG election literature from the Assembly election where the WUAG advocated a socialist Ireland so it can be added to the IEL archive.

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WorldbyStorm - May 12, 2016

Surely by criticising him in those terms you descend to his level (as you see it) rather than rise above the critique he makes? I never understand those who give out about someone’s critique who then emulate it and think that they’re making some cogent or convincing point.

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Jolly Red Giant - May 12, 2016

Paddy’s comments were treated with the contempt that they deserve.

And it should be noted that he repeats them below – on the sole basis of the existance of a website.

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WorldbyStorm - May 12, 2016

I can’t imagine what it must be like to live in a world where such essentially innocuous stuff evinces such hair-trigger and frankly disproportionate responses. It’s also worth pointing out that the absolute certainty as regards the correctness of your analysis isn’t necessarily shared by others.

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Jolly Red Giant - May 13, 2016

When Paddy tries to get a dig in he should expect a response – and so should you.

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WorldbyStorm - May 13, 2016

It’s the disproportion that is so bizarre.Take your criticism. Paddy uses the formulation SPNI in his original piece. Is it snide? I don’t know, given that the SP is the main, perhaps only mover, behind the electoral formation. Nor did it do very well truth be told. But be that as it may look at the original comments again. He has six lines on the matter including PBP. You have eighteen! In other words you up the ante to a ridiculous and unwarranted level.

Difficult not to feel that you’re literally unable to take any criticism at all of your formation. It’s like your continual complaints about irrelevant tweet from SFers etc that no one would waste a moment’s thought on. Really who cares?

And this site is run by a number of us who as always want to get away from sterile interactions like this. Which is why I don’t think we should have to expect such pointless stuff.

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Paddy Healy - May 12, 2016

I am not going to get in to a slagging match with JRG
There is nothing snide about my remarks. I profoundly disagree with left wing organisations who drop the demand for a united Ireland and even a socialist united Ireland from their political programme. I believe that this will seriously damage the development of all-Ireland workers unity on a revolutionary socialist programme.
I am currently calling for a 32-county campaign against austerity as austerity is being imposed north and south.
I have also criticised SWP/PBP on this matter.
I believe that Connolly was correct on this issue.
Accordingly I will criticise the political programme of any left or republican organisation which abandons the Connolly position.
(See Connolly-Walker Controversy)

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Jolly Red Giant - May 12, 2016

You claim that you are calling for a 32 county campaign against austerity as if 1. The WUAG were capable of building it – and 2. You were the only one calling for such a campaign.

The reality is that your ‘call’ demonstrates a populist nationalist approach not a socialist one. It is also clear that, despite your claim that you read the Labour Alternative material, you clearly missed the fact that Labour Alternative called not just for a campaign against austerity North and South but in England, Scotland and Wales as well. I would argue that the Labour Alternative approach is a socialist and internationalist one – while your ‘call’ could just as easily have come straight out of the mouth of Gerry Adams.

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5. roddy - May 11, 2016

As for FF ,I say bring it on.I can’t wait to see Mehole’s face when he sees a string of lost deposits for I can assure you that apathetic voters are not awaiting the gombeen cavalry riding over the hill.Politics can still be very volatile up here and the situation could be transformed up here by what Harold McMillan described as “events,dear boy events”!.There are a number of possible “events” that could shake people out of apathy overnight.Unionism dallying with Billy Wright types,a financial scandal (most likely DUP), one particular scandal of another type that has been bubbling under the surface involving a very senior member of a party that sees itself as the ultimate in “decency”. Add in the possibility of Brexit and anything could happen.In my own Constituency,a far right bigot held the westminster seat for 14 years due to a deeply divided and eventually apathetic “nationalist” population.An emboldend McCrea now thinking he was invincible decided to parade on a stage,clenching the hand of Loyalist psyco Billy Wright and thought there would be no consequences.At the 97 election he again stood as “agreed Unionist” candidate against SF and SDLP in a first past the post contest.On paper he should have been a cert to return as the Sdlp and SF normally were almost equal in support and could ‘nt overtake him.However people became convinced that if they could up the turnout,McCrea could be beaten.Mid Ulster achieved an unbelievable 86% turnout and McGuinness left everyone in his wake to take the seat and leave a stunned media scratching it’s collective head.!

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6. benmadigan - May 11, 2016

mass media hyping up of the DUP majority (still the same) and SF’s losses (1 MLA).
It is happening also in Scotland.
Accordingly the Conservatives won even though they, (as combined Unionist votes since Labour was practically annhilated), got 22% of the votes vs 46% for SNP.
We live in a conservative world!

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7. roddy - May 11, 2016

Right wing Catholic groups are hailing the result,claiming the DUP stance on abortion helped them and cost SF votes.They failed to note that SF’s support for abortion in limited circumstances was in contrast to PBP who want the 67 act implemented.In fact the abortion issue was never mentioned once in any of the hunderds of houses I canvassed.The SDLP tried to use it against SF,Patsy McGlone describing himself as “the only pro life nationalist standing in Mid Ulster.SF outpolled him more than 3 to 1.Another SDLP man Feargal McKinney posed for photos with Bernie Smith of “precious life” but lost his seat.Bernie Smith even signed the nomination papers of a DUP candidate.

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8. gerardmadden - May 11, 2016

Are there any stats on what kind of vote PBP got in unionist areas of West Belfast and Foyle?

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9. roddy - May 11, 2016

PBP transfers to unionists in West Belfast ammounted to 1%.Contrast that to 50% transfer to SF,26% to SDLP,approx 8% to WP,

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Paddy Healy - May 12, 2016

Thanks Roddy
Can I get a reference for that? Is there a site where I can see transfers? It is important in order to understand what is actually happening among radicalising sections of the population in both nationalist and unionist communities.
These stats confirm my expectation that the extent of the PBP vote is an important protest against SF implementing cuts.
On the other hand many nationalists, including many who voted for PBP, are concerned to stop a return to unionist maority rule and consequently transfer to nationalist candidates.

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Paddy Healy - May 12, 2016

Can we see the “Cross-community Labour Alternative” transfers? It would be interesting to know how many of their votes came from nationalists living in predominantly unionist constituencies.

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PaddyM - May 13, 2016

The only constituency where they were eliminated by themselves was East Antrim.

Green 174
Alliance 141
SDLP 59
UUP 51
SF 45
DUP 19.21
TUV 10
Non-transferable 31.21

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PaddyM - May 13, 2016

And UKIP 27

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10. Dr. Nightdub - May 11, 2016

Just out of interest, how come PBP and other “proper lefts” didn’t form an alliance in the north the way PBP and AAA did in the south? Was it even discussed?

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Paddy Healy - May 12, 2016

This is a very important question. The SPNI website (seperate site from SP website) PBP have a “perceived softness for nationalism”. Nevertheless voters are advised to vote for PBP where they stand.
Clearly SP wishes to keep a distance between themselves and PBP in unionist dominated constituencies. For the same reason the SP could not stand as AAA in Belfast despite the issue of the moment being SF/DUP austerity in Belfast. That would associate them with southern Ireland and an alliance including southern nationalists and that would be far worse for them than being tainted with those who have a “perceived soft spot for nationalists”
Instead the Norten Ireland Labour Party tradition (unionist Labour) is conjured up on SPNI site.

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11. roddy - May 12, 2016

Because apart from the PBP,the others that you deem “proper left” could’nt get elected to anything in a month of Sundays.Unionists tend to vote for the real thing instead of small U “socialist” wannabees.

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12. irishelectionliterature - May 12, 2016

This site has some decent graphics of transfers in the Assembly Elections
http://electionsni.org.s3-website-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/index.html

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entdinglichung - May 13, 2016

the high number of transfer votes from all sites which the WP candidate in mid Ulster received is quite interesting

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13. roddy - May 12, 2016

Paddy,my transfer figures for west Belfast were worked out roughly by myself by comparing 1st and 2nd counts but if you go on to the site mentioned above by irishelectionliterature you will see the official figures which prove my calculations correct.That site is the best available and thanks to IEL for directing us to it.The only caveatis that many of the transfers are 4th or 5th preferences as in MID ulster for instance 3 SF AND 1 SDLP were elected on the first count and any of their transfers would have been 4th or 5th preference.

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14. Joe - May 12, 2016

“It is not true that the people of the North are indelibly colour-coded orange and green. In this as in all, there’s never a wrong time to argue for a different way of seeing the world, beginning with our own little patch of the world.”

McCann in today’s Irish Times. G’wan the Eamonn.

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sonofstan - May 12, 2016

Saw and liked that

. Re the -5%; if I was who I am, but living somewhere in the north that wasn’t Belfast or Derry, it’d be hard to get me to the polls with what’s on offer.

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15. roddy - May 12, 2016

I don’t recall much “gwan the Eamon” when he was “critically” supporting the armed struggle or launching Bobby Sands election campaign.

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WorldbyStorm - May 12, 2016

It’s certainly interesting to see the way that his thinking and that of his org has shifted across the years.

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16. roddy - May 12, 2016

I don’t think it has.There are potential minefields ahead.Bigots like Allister are waiting in the wings to repeat their antics against ex prisoners,or “terrorist” monuments. Eamon will be put in a very awkward position when actual voting positions have to be taken and student type sloganising won’t provide him with an escape route.Anyone who believes that either him or Carroll are elected on an Alliance type unionist light “cross community” vote are severely deluded.

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17. Paddy Healy - May 12, 2016

“Anyone who believes that either him (McCann) or Carroll are elected on an Alliance type unionist light “cross community” vote are severely deluded.”
That is clearly correct
There has been astrong protest/warning vote to Sinn Fein in strong nationalist areas. Welfare cuts are on the way and public service cuts are set to continue. And the Tories are bound to impose further cuts in the forthcoming budget
The sum of the votes of McCann,McCloskey, Carroll and Fiona Andersen are a measure of the protest/warning. It may take various forms but it will grow

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18. roddy - May 12, 2016

Having studied the transfer patterns more closely via aforementioned website,one interesting point emerged.The Cannibis candidates transferred strongly to SF.Have to say I was’nt entirely surprised as I have canvassed more than one house where the occupants came to the door with the eyes standing in their heads to declare “no bother MAN”!

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19. Paddy Healy - May 13, 2016

SP is for socialism everywhere but not for a socialist united Ireland!
Hiding behind internationalism is the traditional cover for capitulation to British Imperialism in the Irish Labour movement
Sp is in favour of anti-austerity everywhere but AAA is not organised in the 6 counties
There is no way that SP will be able to continue capitulating to the extreme political backwardnessof unionist workers without exposure
How can Gerry Adams call for a 32-county campaign against austerity if his party is party is implementing British cuts in Belfast?
I wish to discuss political programmes and practice not to engage in a slagging match between organisations
Trotskyist sects in Britain and the wider world have been engaging in this since the second world war with disastrous results
One has only to look at the debacle in the neighbouring island.

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Jolly Red Giant - May 13, 2016

SP is for socialism everywhere but not for a socialist united Ireland!
Don’t let the facts get in the way of a good diatribe

Clear Paddy doesn’t read very well
The national problem is intractable and insoluble on the basis of capitalism. We are for a socialist solution – working class unity to bring about a socialist Ireland

How can Gerry Adams call for a 32-county campaign against austerity if his party is party is implementing British cuts in Belfast?
How naive of you Paddy – don’t you know SF are opposed to austerity in the North – they just don’t have a choice in the North because of the ‘arrangement’

Trotskyist sects in Britain and the wider world have been engaging in this since the second world war with disastrous results
Of course the good old League for a Workers Republic were immune from such tendencies

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Paddy Healy - May 13, 2016

You left out that little word “united” between socialist and Ireland and not for the first time.

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Jolly Red Giant - May 13, 2016

Only a left republican would regard it as necessary

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20. roddy - May 13, 2016

entdinglichung,as someone involved in the mid ulster campaign,I can explain how WP got transfers there.The WP candidate polled 316 votes and was 2nd last.However all 4 Nationalist candidates (3 SF 1 SDLP) were elected on the first count and had a very big surplus with nowhere to go bar the wp or various strands of unionism from Alliance to right wing UUP to far right DUP and TUV. Legendary IRA man Ian Milne had a surplus of 1200 of his own,600 of which went to fellow Bellaghy man Scullion of the WP. This lifted him above a couple of other minnows and put him in a position to avail of minnow transfers later on.McGlone of the SDLP would have transferred to WP also with nowhere else for his votes to go and any of McGlones that went alliance would then have went WP when the Alliance minnow went out.The 316 is an accurate reflection of WP suppport in Mid Ulster and had either SF or SDLP stood an extra candidate ,Scullion would have been eliminated without even reaching 400 votes.

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21. Paddy Healy - May 13, 2016

Ansalysed like a true Proportional Representation tallyman!!
Do they have those up the north too?

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22. roddy - May 13, 2016

We are the only party who has the slightest notion as to how the various boxes pan out.No other party does it.Hence the ability to put our 3 Mid ulster candidates in on the first count and our rivals privately asking “how the f— do you do it anyway?”!.

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23. Paddy Healy - May 13, 2016

The Role of the National Question in the Irish Socialist Revolution
It is widely believed that the national question has no further role in the fight or socialism in Ireland and the wider world.
Nothing could be further from the truth. In fact the question of the independence and sovereignty of the Irish people has become the most pressing issue for workers and oppressed Irish people generally.
It is appropriate that this matter be seriously discussed in the trade union and republican movements on the centenary of the execution of James Connolly.
The only elected political representative who has pressed this issue in the Dáil or, indeed, in the Stormont Assembly is Seamus Healy TD.
In the 6 counties it is very clear that in “Northern Ireland”, British government cuts are being implemented through the collaboration of Sinn Fein and the DUP. No significant political formation has raised the issue of the sovereignty of the Irish people in the recent assembly elections.
In the 26-counties, adherence to the Fiscal Treaty, by the state with the support of FF, Fine Gael and Labour means that the state has negligible sovereignty to address the needs of the citizens in matters such as housing, health, education, capital investment etc. The first sentence of the new programme for government stipulates that all measures in the programme are subject to the requirements of the Fiscal Treaty. Sinn Féin and the left opposed the Fiscal Treaty in the referendum. Sinn Féin spokesperson Caoimhín Ó Caolain said in the Dail that the” treaty flies in the face of the 1916 Proclamation” in the matter of sovereignty. Yet the Sinn Fein manifesto in the recent General Election was framed within the restrictions of the Fiscal Treaty.
Over reliance on foreign direct investment has further diminished sovereignty
Historical Background
Henry Joy, Wolfe Tone, “the Boys of Wexford”. . . .
MORE: http://wp.me/pKzXa-tz

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24. Paddy Healy - May 15, 2016

This is the tradition to which Belfasst Socialists shoud relate-Not the unionist Northern Ireland Labour Party
“In Belfast, the (All Ireland) Labour Party was able to overcome sectarianism to win a quarter of the vote. In January 1919, a general strike over working hours spread and developed and Soviet was declared that would run the city. Strikes shut down electricity for a month and closed the shipyards. The mayor of Belfast admitted that it was the Soviet, not himself that made the decisions in the city. At the time this was a far greater concern to British authorities than the (First All-Ireland) Dail or the IRA.”
https://whistlinginthewind.org/2012/10/08/irish-soviets-1919-23/

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25. Paddy Healy - May 15, 2016

http://socialistpartyni.net/analysis-news/stormont/assembly-election-what-alternative-to-the-status-quo/#.Vzg209IrJdg
“People Before Profit

People Before Profit (PBP) are very likely to make a breakthrough in the upcoming election, with sitting councillor Gerry Carroll placed strongly to take a seat in West Belfast and longstanding activist Eamonn McCann in the fight for the last seat in Foyle. A good vote for PBP would represent a rejection of austerity and, for some of its voters, a rejection of the politics of the past. For this reason, the Socialist Party calls for a vote for PBP in the constituencies they are contesting.

We must raise a warning, however, that this opportunity can be lost. The history of the left in Northern Ireland is full of lost opportunities, where organisations with the potential to play a positive role have foundered on the rock of sectarianism – failing to take a genuinely independent, anti-sectarian position but instead bending towards and basing themselves upon the views and aspirations of one community over the other.

Historically, the Northern Ireland Labour Party had a mass base in both communities, winning 25% of the vote at its height in 1965. At the outset of the Troubles, however, its leadership coat-tailed Unionism and the party disintegrated. Most of the left has tended to base itself largely on the Catholic community and reflect this in one-sided positions on the difficult, divisive questions. Unfortunately, to date, PBP has tended to fall into the latter camp, taking black-and-white positions on issues like Orange parades.

A perceived softness towards nationalism has assisted PBP in building its West Belfast base, allowing them to win at least tacit support from anti-Sinn Féin republicans like éirígí. Bernadette Devlin-McAliskey – former MP and a founding member of the Irish Republican Socialist Party – has been announced as Eamonn McCann’s election agent. McAliskey is seen as being very much within the camp of nationalism and association with her will jar with the vast majority of Protestant workers.”

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26. roddy - May 15, 2016

The journalist Jim Campbell who would have been sympathetic to the WP always maintained that “catholics tend to be more left wing than protestants”.I am merely repeating a viewpoint from someone hostile to SF lest anyone accuse me of introducing sectarianism.

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27. Paddy Healy - May 15, 2016

NEW GOVERNMENTAl CRISIS IMMINENT?????
FIANNA FAIL Has Vetoed Replacement of Public Hospitals by Trusts
“Under the new programme for government, expected to be published this week, hospital services will be run by statutory trusts which will own their assets and manage the recruitment of their own staff. “—Irish Times May 9
Fianna Fail has Vetoed Abolition of USC and CLawback of PAYE Allowance from high earners —Sunday Times May 15
FF vetoes Increase in Green Bin Charges News At One RTE May 15

A wide spectrum of commentators agrees tha this can’t go on.

Remember that a new general election is only one option

Perhaps FF or FG might take Gerry Adams at his word and invite SF to talks?
The assembly election is now over!

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28. Ivorthorne - May 15, 2016

Ah lads! Would ye cut the sectarian bull (and I’m not talking about taigs and prods).

Can someone refer me to a good overview of the SDLP? I understand their decline on a meta level but they seem like they’re in palliative care and while a decline as a consequence of the SF rise, they really seem to struggle to attract young members.

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29. roddy - May 15, 2016

The SDLP vote as I know it is based mainly on 2 sectors of society- insufferable snobs and die hard Hibernians.A tiny proportion are South Belfast liberals who again are totally smug and self righteous and would be a good fit for the worst elements of Burton’s labour party.In rural areas they are the political wing of the catholic church In mid ulster their sole candidate Patsy McGlone fought on his being the “only pro life candidate”.He was outpolled 3 to 1 by SF and in my own electoral box by 12 to 1.They have a real scarcity of workers and never hold on to any they get, do not man polling stations and every election sees all out warfare over nominations in several constituencies. They look on SF as “corner boys” and have a sense of entitlement out of all proportion to their support.They are in a terminal decline that will take another couple of election cycles to complete.

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Paddy Healy - May 15, 2016

Well said Roddy
I suspect that the age proile of their voters would be high

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30. Paddy Healy - May 28, 2016

SINN FÉIN MINISTER FOR FINANCE AT STORMONT
DUP Didn’t Want to Have “MINISTER for CUTS” !!!!
Belfast Telegraph 26/05/2016
http://wp.me/pKzXa-tz
“Sinn Fein has taken control of the purse-strings at Stormont for the first time in a radical shake-up for the new Executive, which will meet for the first time today. But the Finance Minister – new boy Mairtin O Muilleoir – will have to oversee spending cuts across most Government departments during the next five years.
IN-TRAY: One reason for the DUP side-stepping Finance this time may be the likelihood of becoming known as the ‘Minister of cuts’ as O Muilleoir handles departmental spending, along with the first budget of the new Assembly. Had his first engagement yesterday examining the peace dividend for working-class communities.”

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31. Paddy Healy - May 28, 2016

Finance minister Máirtín Ó Muilleoir (Sinn Féin) facing budget baptism of fire Irish News 26/05/2016
http://wp.me/pKzXa-tz
SINN FÉIN’s new finance minister is faced with making more cuts as soon as he enters office.
A departmental memo, seen by The Irish News, reveals that Stormont’s financial woes are growing.

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32. roddy - May 28, 2016

Aye ,if you want unbiased reporting regarding SF,reference either the Belfast Telegraph or The Irish News.The first is a unionist rag and the second spends it’s time alternating between “castle catholic” and talking up the dissos!

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33. Paddy Healy - May 28, 2016

Are you denying that O’Muilleoir is going to bring in cuts or just shooting the messenger?

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