That latest poll

I find it extremely difficult to take any of the analyses of the RedC/SBP poll at all seriously given act all the movements were within the margin of error. The only thing that could be said seriously is that little or nothing has changed since Election 2016. And that’s fair enough. Why would people believe that it would be otherwise at this point, still few months since the contest and with a government that has been conspicuous by its absence?

To say that Labour is reconnecting with its base, as is said in the SBP, doesn’t even make sense given that it gained 7% at the election and is now at 6% having dropped to 4% after the election. It’s just too minor a movement to make any real assessment of it. Or the fact FF and FG are level pegging at 26% each. Well, yeah, but so what? At the GE they were on 26% and 24% respectively. Again, no substantial change. Even where there’s been movement since the GE, as with a drop from 13% to 9% and back to 11% with Independents still suggests no great change.

I’ve put it this way before. For quite some time before the election support for parties and independents was baked in. In broad bands of support it was clear enough that support would be there or thereabouts. The only surprise on the day, perhaps the fact FF did quite so well, perhaps the fact SF did a bit worse than expected. Otherwise nothing much to write home about. And asking people to change their vote once cast anytime soon seems like a fools errand. Because that is effectively the logic of those who would call for a new election. Thinking of it on a personal level – if you were asked to change your vote from the General Election how would you feel?

So the more I think of it the more I think that this administration may be around a little longer than some of the predictions.