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And what might we expect a post-Brexit UK to be like? Work and Travel June 24, 2016

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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This may be a continuing series, but here’s the first outlines of what work and travel may be like.

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1. irishelectionliterature - June 24, 2016

Like most of you I’ve been thinking about this all day , it’s been incredible the whole sequence of todays events and the ramifications are far wider than we’d thought. Where do you even start?
From our own point of view the return of the border as a physical thing rather than just something on a map has massive implications. Tourism may suffer too with Belfast, Giants Causeway etc now needing a passport (and possibly a visa for people from certain countries) to visit.
For the foreseeable future I can’t imagine that many British companies will be hiring or indeed putting out tenders for work be it construction, technology or whatever. This will hit many Irish businesses of all sizes.

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WorldbyStorm - June 25, 2016

And English too. An acquaintance of mine works with roads in Ireland. All those state funded contracts with UK companies? Likely gone. More workers out of jobs.

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2. Dr. Nightdub - June 25, 2016

Only slightly facetious, but I can see a lot of English-based companies (and maybe people) hedging their bets and moving to Scotland.

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sonofstan - June 25, 2016

I think we may see quite a few English universities sprouting campuses in Ireland/ France/ The Netherlands.

Where I work, we have, on some courses, significant recruitment from Eastern Europe. Students from the EU are currently eligible for student loans, but this will presumably change. Unless we can keep them, those courses will close, and, as the demographics suggest they won’t be replaced by English and Welsh students, universities will close.

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WorldbyStorm - June 25, 2016

I’m genuinely dumbstruck by the sheer stupidity of what has happened – putting aside all the ideological discussions the actual practicalities of pulling a state from a larger group of states that is interwoven in so many different ways. It is weirdly reminiscent to me of an area of business – design – which pre crisis in Ireland would have linked into the state for work. Catalogues, brochures, etc, When the crisis hit people I knew saw their work (and revenue streams) fall by up to half as the state killed expenditures. These weren’t big companies making huge profits, sole traders in the main, working often from home, but bang, overnight, just gone. I always liked the fact it was low level, not huge profit making and working wth the state, and now that’s gone. But at least it wasn’t a self-inflicted thing.

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irishelectionliterature - June 25, 2016

Was just looking through some UK european elections material that I have.
Whilst the Daily Mail etc get pilloried for their views, most of the Tory election material was all about the waste in Europe. A real them and us. Ian Paisleys name was mentioned in one of the threads here before in relation to leading people up to the top of the Cliff and taking no responsibility when they jump.
The anti European discoure has been around in the mainstream for a long time in England at least. …and they wonder why people voted leave!

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WorldbyStorm - June 25, 2016

That’s extremely important as a point. It didn’t arrive from nowhere. The British press has made this a part of their schtick for as long as I can remember, but particularly so from the mid to late 1980s on. And their role in this is one that is going to be educative to uncover.

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gendjinn - June 25, 2016

“I’m genuinely dumbstruck by the sheer stupidity of what has happened.”

That’s the exact feeling I woke to this morning as well. It’s simply gob smackingly stupid.

I also think that unless they figure out a way to get a re-run, this is catastrophically bad for everyone involved, for a very long time to come.

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WorldbyStorm - June 25, 2016

I can’t see how they can do a re-run. It would be utterly contestable from a democratic point of view, to put it mildly, and who would want to. Mind you Boris J was muttering about reruns when he broke to Leave, so who knows?

I think the least worst that might happen is they go and sit in EEA/EFTA for the next decade or so and then have a rerun. But I don’t know.

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gendjinn - June 25, 2016

Cameron calls a GE and re-running the referendum to give people a chance to say “Are you really sure?” wins a mandate that way.

“The EU arose out of the ashes of two world wars to unite a continent and now faces the challenge of maintaining economic and political unity without Britain, which has the EU‘s biggest financial center, a U.N. Security Council veto, a powerful army and nuclear weapons.”

Surely the EU wants to figure out a way to keep the UK inside? Or perhaps they realise de Gaulle was right (as Yes Prime Minister points out) (I mean, if he is right).

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3. Starkadder - June 25, 2016

What if someone, along the way refuses to sign the necessary Brexit legislation? Maybe Liz II could theoretically slow down the process by exercising some Royal Prerogative.

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Starkadder - June 25, 2016

And David Lammy MP is suggesting a vote in Parliament to
stop Brexit, claiming the referendum was an “advisory, non-binding referendum”:

http://qz.com/716947/four-ways-the-uk-can-reverse-brexit-if-it-really-really-wants-to/

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WorldbyStorm - June 25, 2016

Possible, but… again the democratic aspects kick in. I see that it is possible to put a petition to Parliament in relation to a matter of concern where 100,000 signatures are collected. I’d have deep concerns about the democratic nature of that too. If there’s a Scotexit or if that becomes a serious prospect that might be a different matter. But I think there’s a danger about ignoring democratic legitimations.

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gendjinn - June 25, 2016

Understand your concerns but the reality is that the UK is far from democratic and the will of the people is not paramount if the powers that be decide otherwise.

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4. Gewerkschaftler - June 26, 2016

I can’t see either the British parliament ignoring the referendum (that would really split the Tory party), calling a new one (major problems with the Little Englanders and no guarantee that the Brexiters wouldn’t dig in and come out in greater numbers).

All that remains to them is a refusal to trigger article 50, which is the strategy (for want of a better word) that they are adopting.

But they are falling into the the usual rut of English myopia and not realising that this is an issue for the whole of Europe. And European politicians, with an alacrity that rather surprises me, are tending towards cutting off the blood flow, amputating and cauterising the infected limb ASAP.

It is a case of infection here – they realise that the longer it goes on (not just S&D but also a majority of the EPP with it’s CDU centre of gravity) the more the AfD, Front National etc. will benefit from the poisoned blood, over the rest of the summer and beyond.

I can see more hardball from European politicians.

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Gewerkschaftler - June 26, 2016

This also seems to be the consensus within the EC.

The position of the German government, is, as so often in EU politics, win-win WRT to what happens now.

Should the Brits somehow reverse their decision, the Große Koalition gets a pliant and chastened yes-man to their plans to further shape Europe according to Schäuble’s mercantilist/liberal pattern.

Should they exit, then German hegemony is strengthened in a shrunken EU.

But, and EU politicians realise this without being able to do anything about it (which would mean reversing the neo-liberal treaties in place in the EU) the political legitimacy of the entire project is draining away fast.

So expect some sort of change to the rights of movement, work and social security (i.e. adopting AfD policies) with no change to the fundamental economic and democratic problems that are tearing the EU and Europe apart.

Only a European-wide democratic socialist movement with a real programme can stop this.

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