British Labour and polling August 31, 2016Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
Seeing as we were looking at UK polling report it has to be said that current polling for the BLP isn’t great. Talking to a friend the other day they were saying that some they talked to seemed to think the LP could recover its position. Frankly I’ve doubted ever since the loss of Scotland to the SNP whether the BLP is in any position to mount a successful return in one election campaign.
Or to put it another way the likelihood of a Corbyn government has from day one been very low.
But, repositioning the BLP on traditional social democratic terrain is a project that would take some time too. And that, as noted here previously, is a project well beyond Corbyn. That said there’s some utopian stuff making the round about the BLP and just what it might become. I fear that some of that is due to a simple lack of knowledge of that party and its members. The idea it could tip towards proto-revolutionary stances is frankly incredible to many of us who’ve been members in the past. That’s just not going to happen, under Corbyn or not. The best that might happen is a position some way to the right of its early 1980s incarnation. That is a push to some renationalisations, some amelioration of labour and other legislation. But beyond that?
Labour is the single largest oppositional force in British politics. That gifts it some momentum, but also inertia. A mass split is neither desirable nor feasible. It’s telling how voices have softened on the right. I’ve noted too the point that deselections of sitting MPs sound great – from a distance. But once on the ground… it’s a different matter. Electoral politics, and I’ve seen this numerous times, has a dynamic and a logic all its own. I’d be willing that short of a split the BLP in 2023 will have most of the same MPs, and membership, as 2016.
In any case, polls do matter. I’m of the opinion that given the turmoil in LP ranks the LP ratings are actually healthier than might be expected. But, and this has to be said, they’re not great. They’re certainly not those of a party that is likely to see massive influxes of support any time soon. And that’s neither a cause of despair or rejoicing.