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FF 11 points ahead of FG… February 11, 2017

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Uncategorized.
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@SunTimesIreland @banda_ie #poll
FF 32 +3
FG 21 -2
SF 19 +2
Lab 6 +1
IA 5 +2
AAA/PBP 3 -2
SocDems 2 +1
Green 2 -1
WP 1 +1
Other 8 -7

That’s an election sized gap developing between FF and FG. An FG leadership election followed by a General Election or vice versa !

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1. Aengus Millen - February 11, 2017

Not to say that I called it but it is notable that as the independent vote goes seriously down the vote of FF goes up. However even the IT has noted that this poll seems like something of an outlier. If it is confirmed though it might presage the end of this government. I don’t think FF can reasonably hope to get to their old mid to high forties level of support so given that its so much higher then 2011 and especially given the relative support for FG, FF might decide to take their chances some time soon before the pendulum swings against them.

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2. sonofstan - February 11, 2017

SF within MoE of FG. if they were to overtake them, Enda would be gone in the morning. I don’t know why the late night knock on the door hasn’t come already

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Aengus Millen - February 11, 2017

All right-wing parties have a flavor of authoritarianism I think they find it hard to challenge the leader even when its a pretty weak one like Enda. Also I think the different contenders feels like the one who wields the knife won’t wear the crown. But I think your right he has to be pushing his luck at this point his saying he would stay until the papal visit in 2018 was a power move but one that might have gone too far.

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WorldbyStorm - February 11, 2017

It is true that SF getting ahead of FG (particularly for a couple of polls) would change matters. But not so far and dublinstreams has a point in relation to his comment below given the very public agreements FF has forged with FG. That said could FF really resist if the government collapsed say, oh I don’t know, a genuinely disgraceful situation over policing and the smearing of whistleblowers, stepping into the breach with an SF that has been signalling its willingness to govern (by the way, I wonder how Brexit and its implications is playing in that latter camp? Having a foot in government in the RoI must be very tempting given the way things are going).

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lcox - February 11, 2017

All too true – or FF might feel a sudden attack of principles over water charges coming on…

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sonofstan - February 11, 2017

I guess you’re right. Scary that Enda has been in the dail longer than most of his likely challengers have been alive.

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3. dublinstreams - February 11, 2017

we just had an election, less then a year ago, 7 months ago FF promised “to vote against or abstain on any motions of no confidence in the Government, Ministers” https://www.lawsociety.ie/Documents/Public%20Affairs/FF-FG-Agreement-May-3-3pm.pdf

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Aengus Millen - February 11, 2017

True but seems like they won’t hold to that if it’s no longer in their interests. I mean to be fair they can hardly be expected to vote against a motion of no confidence in a minister who has actually acted badly.

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Dermot O Connor - February 11, 2017

SF’s no confidence motion outflanks them, and exposes the cosy little arrangement beautifully. If FF vote for the gov, this allows SF to point at FF as shoring up a nasty little gang of corrupt pols, accusing a decent man of child abuse.

If the NC passes, SF has the upper hand in the GE.

Lovely stuff. This is why I keep up with Irish pols, even having been out of the country since 93/4. It never fails to entertain.

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dublinstreams - February 11, 2017

what Minister has acted badly?

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Aengus Millen - February 11, 2017

Well I don’t know how seriously we should take it but there is some question as to whether either the Tanaiste or the Minister for children lied. If it was the Tanaiste then it was to the dail which potentially makes it even more serious.

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irishelectionliterature - February 11, 2017

I suspect a change of FG leadership might make that arrangements untenable.

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dublinstreams - February 11, 2017

why?

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Aengus Millen - February 12, 2017

Presumably because FF would be worried about a rise in the polls for FG especially under Vradkar

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dublinstreams - February 12, 2017

not sure that whats IEL meant, I’ll wait for his reply.

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irishelectionliterature - February 12, 2017

They signed the agreement with Enda, not a different leader. It’s a line I’ve heard from a few FF people.
Also were Coveney to win it would be galling for Martin to vote in his constituency opponent as Taoiseach.

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dublinstreams - February 12, 2017

its a great line, I’ve heard it said myself, does it have anything to do with reality “A Confidence and Supply Arrangement
for a Fine Gael-Led Government” https://www.lawsociety.ie/Documents/Public%20Affairs/FF-FG-Agreement-May-3-3pm.pdf

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4. Gerryboy - February 11, 2017

Some independents come from the FF gene pool, others are from the FG gene pool. Maybe SF are a mixture of both? These opinion polls over recent months confirm in my mind that the majority of Irish voters don’t knowingly veer to the left or the right. They veer, as they think, to the dead centre. They are also gluttons for punishment through taxation, cost cutting, depletion of educational, health and housing expenditure. They cling to hope and give ear to any gladhand political candidate who seems to offer the fulfilment of hope.

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5. irishelectionliterature - February 12, 2017

Regarding FG on 21%… On 22.5% in 2002, Fine Gael won just 31 seats ( in a Dail with more seats)

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6. irishelectionliterature - February 12, 2017

Tallyrific Maps have done a quick workthrough of tonight’s Sunday Times poll.

Provisional Seat Figures :

Fianna Fáil : 62 (+18)
Fine Gael : 37 (-13)
Sinn Fein : 33 (+10)
Labour : 3 (-4)
Others : 22 (-11)

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WorldbyStorm - February 12, 2017

And that says it all. The Ind/Other numbers are decimated – okay, not massively but a significant fall compared to 2016. SF up, FG down, LP just holding on by its fingertips.

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dublinstreams - February 12, 2017

one poll does not say it all.

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1729torus - February 12, 2017

There doesn’t seem to be anything that can arrest FG’s losses. They’re headed towards a 2002-esque wipeout, and will be left with the taint of false child abuse allegations for a few years at least.

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WorldbyStorm - February 12, 2017

It’s a rhetorical device DS, 🙂 I just think the seat distributions tell us a lot about what that poll would imply. Of course it’s not the only or most important poll.

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paulculloty82 - February 12, 2017

Presumably that would mostly affect Indos – both SDs and Eamon Ryan appear safe, though Martin’s Rathdown seat seems vulnerable. Likewise, the AAA-PBP TDs had little tension during their election counts, with Gino Kenny perhaps boosted by his medical cannabis bill.

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7. ivorthorne - February 12, 2017

We’re approaching election territory but FF need to be careful. They know FG would get a bounce from a new leader so they need to move quickly enough to ensure Enda is still on the posters. They also need a point of “principle” on which to withdraw from the confidence and supply arrangement. Last, they need a repeat of a poll like this one.

They look like they’re on a 10 point lead but at the same time it could be 7 per cent. Any election will see them increase their seats but FF will find it difficult to find a coalition partner. Labour wants opposition. SF have been sort-of ruled out. FG will be pissed if they pull out of the confidence and supply arrangement.

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8. dublinstreams - February 12, 2017

FF could abstain but would FG have enough votes from elsewhere to survive? could it depend on Lowry and Harty etc? a bit too risky. So FF would have to support gov, in order ‘to support Commission of Investigation’, ‘find out truth’ etc

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Gerryboy - February 13, 2017

They’ll stand on their heads or do a backflip if they think it’s good for the party to keep the Dail going until after the next budget.

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dublinstreams - February 13, 2017

I was confused as to how the gov nearly lost a vote last week when FF abtained and the chair had to save them there must have been more FG missing that day then I thought, I think total opposition without FF is 53 and gov have 57 and others Inds may vote with them.

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9. Paddy Healy - February 13, 2017

Thoughan election may occur despitethe wishes of FF and FG, FF willnot want one now despite the favourable opinion poll

This is because there is a strike wave developing-transport workers, nurses,teachers Tesco. When this is over whatever the outcome, would be the right time for Fianna Fail to call an election

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10. Paddy Healy - February 13, 2017

Listening to trade union activists in Clonmel over the weekend,I got a very succinct summary of the present situation. Senior gardai and government agencies such as HSE and TUSLA were trying to intimidate a number of whistle blowers using trumped up allegations of sexual abuse. The government tried to have a limited inquiry which omitted the worst bits but got caught out.The allegations against McCabe were known all over Leinster House for Ages.Government could not but have known about them all. (Note Enda has not denied that he knew about the Tusla File-he said he was not told about it, which is different.) Everyone was calling for a Criminal inQuiry by foreign police.
When we retired to the pub later,one wag opined that the BrazilianPolice should be called in!!!!

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11. Paddy Healy - February 13, 2017

There is no improvement in the dismal poll rating of Labour 6%+or -3.2%. This is dire as Labouris now in opposition to a very unpopular government. Will Jack O’Connor(SIPTU) sack”FEMPI Anti Union Laws” Howlin? If SIPTU followed UNITE and dissafiliated, it would be the end for Labour. Siptu will not dissafiliate. They will replace Howlin and Joan “freeze the poor” Burtonand replace them by new “cool clean heroes” in the Dick Spring mould.

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CMK - February 13, 2017

‘They will replace Howlin and Joan “freeze the poor” Burtonand replace them by new “cool clean heroes” in the Dick Spring mould.’

Who would those be? Alan Kelly? Amadan O’Riordain? Ged Nash? All are tarred with participation in the 2011-16 government and will never be able to escape the consequences of that.

SIPTU might not want to disaffiliate but it might have no choice. Affiliation to a party with 1 TD is beyond ridiculous but that is a realistic prospect.

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GW - February 13, 2017

Ged Nash is real. I thought you’d got the name from some Flash Gordon comic.

And he has a pointy head!

Made my day.

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12. Paddy Healy - February 13, 2017

I said earlier “Thoughan election may occur despite the wishes of FF and FG, etc” A GE may now occur despite the wishes of FF and FG . The government has been found out in a manipulative cover up of a vicious and extraordinaryattempt to discredit and intimidate Maurice McCabe and two other garda whistleblowers.FF may not be able to rescue government without damaging FF.

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13. Paddy Healy - February 13, 2017

Looks like Labour willhave to go into an election led by “Musso” Howlin and Joan”friend of the Lone Parents” Burton and Alan “water charges” Kelly.Jack O’Connor may have to firmup his understanding with Sinn Féin!!!

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14. sonofstan - February 13, 2017

Enda Kenny was determined to be the only FG leader to ‘win’ consecutive terms. Now I’m half convinced he has another landmark in sight – he’s 72 days off being the longest serving FG taoiseach and overtaking John A. Costello

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Records_of_Irish_heads_of_government_since_1922

(scroll down)

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WorldbyStorm - February 13, 2017

That makes a lot of sense.

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15. Paddy Healy - February 13, 2017

Kenny has agreed to a public inquiry. This means that FG has decided to sacrifice commissioner NoirínO Sullivan

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WorldbyStorm - February 13, 2017

This is going to be interesting! I wonder does that mean he’s comfortable he can hold the line at his cabinet members?

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