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French Presidential election… May 7, 2017

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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As noted by Starkadder in comments… Projected outcome coming in… higher for Macron, lower for Le Pen than expected.

The centrist Emmanuel Macron is the next president of France, defeating his far-right rival, Marine Le Pen, by a comfortable 65.1% to 34.9%, according to a usually reliable vote estimate by pollsters Ipsos/Sopra Steria for French state TV and radio and Le Monde.

Vote estimates by other polling organisations for different French media show a broadly similar result, although some are showing marginal variations. The abstention rate is estimated at 25.3%, the highest since 1969 but not unexpected for such an unusual election.

Le Pen has, unquestionably, done better than her father. And one has to wonder where that 35% will go given she’s added 15% or so to her first round figure. That said it will be most interesting to see how Macron sees fit to fend off the challenge from the far-right. Surely business as usual (in both the literal and figurative senses) cannot be the way forward.

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1. GW - May 7, 2017

Worse result for the fascist than my pessimism allowed me to expect.

The participation was as low as expected however.

I saw on the god-awful French TV a prediction of 8% spoiled (white) ballots. That, along with the deliberate abstention of many left voters means that Le Pen managed to get well under 30% (perhaps closer to 25%) of those who could normally be bothered to vote.

Republicans and ‘Socialist’ politicos were already offering themselves to Macron.

Transfers of voting from the first round will be instructive.

Now on to the assembly elections.

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2. GW - May 7, 2017

Also I’m curious about why the west coast (especially Brittany) is more resistant to the fascist spectrum.

Don’t give me any ‘Celtic’ guff. Perhaps proximity to Brexitland?

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WorldbyStorm - May 7, 2017

Is it in part an aversion to very explicit French nationalism? That might only account for Brittany.

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GW - May 7, 2017

That might be it. Or the sea air.

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Occasional lurker - May 7, 2017

It’s the Celtic language 😁

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3. GW - May 7, 2017

Spolied ballots holding up. Perhaps well over 8%. And these are deliberately spoiled because it just isn’t that complex.

All the scare-mongering about the left not voting for Macron and letting Le Pen in turned out to be bollocks.

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4. GW - May 7, 2017

I was wondering how much of the Macron vote was an anti-fascist vote. And how’s this for a ringing non-endorsement for Macron:

About 43% of Macron’s voters cast their ballot for him to keep out Le Pen; only 39% of voters would like the new president to have an absolute majority in the new parliament after legislative elections next month;

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5. benmadigan - May 7, 2017
GW - May 7, 2017

🙂 You just can’t trust Johnny Croisant-Muncher to do the right thing in a tight spot, can you, eh?

Gunboats up the Seine it is then.

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6. GW - May 7, 2017

In other election new the regional elections in Schleswig-Holstein show’s that the Schultz effect has been short-lived for the SPD. They fell significantly from their current representation and the CDU may well lead the regional government.

The AfD barely got in with just over 5% of the vote – hardly a ringing endorsement for them given that there’s a fairly significant neo-Nazi and racist culture in parts of SH. They seem to be consistently on the way downwards.

Die Linke increased their vote but didn’t get over the 5% mark.

The Greens will probably end up going into government with the conservatives and explicit neo-libs (FDP). Unfortunately they are back.

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7. Occasional lurker - May 7, 2017

Business as usual will be the hallmark of Macron’s regime except with more focus on business. There was a reason he refused to make any Concessions to the left after round 1.
France is going to try out Blairism. Should work a charm. Step up entrepreneurs and people of aspirations. Carry la France along in your coat tails.

The most succinct reading was a quote that France was choosing between fascism and the conditions that create fascism.

As an aside Melenchon clearly had a superior read on how France was going to vote and acted accordingly. He now can actively oppose Macron rather than be labelled a backer of Macron. Turns out the best way to fight le pen was to note recommend a vote for Macron.

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8. GW - May 7, 2017

Spoiled ballots about 50% higher than in any previous 5th Republic presidential election.

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Alibaba - May 7, 2017

And about one third of the electorate either abstained or spoiled the ballot. I’d like to think that’s their way of saying tread carefully because they are left-leaning. Let’s hope it’s not an example of wishful thinking instead.

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9. Occasional lurker - May 7, 2017

By the by can we all stop calling him centrist now that the election is over.

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GW - May 7, 2017

90% Macron predicted in Paris. Can that be right?

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10. GW - May 7, 2017

Did he really say he wouldn’t give in to irony? Does anyone have the full speech in French?

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GW - May 7, 2017

Well I can’t find any reference to irony.

Someone’s little joke.

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11. Occasional lurker - May 7, 2017

Macron seems to have walked away with it thanks to the over 65s.
44% of 18-24 seemed to vote le pen and get these figures:
“Ms Le Pen is forecast to receive around 11 million votes – a significant increase from the 4.5 million that were cast for her father, Jean-Marie, in the 2002 presidential run-off.

According to early estimates, she received the backing of more women than men and was supported by almost two thirds (63 per cent) of manual workers. ”

She doubled the vote her father got, is stronger the younger the voter, has cornered the working class vote and has the challenge of getting more men to vote for her instead of the Other way round.
There are worrying details here.

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GW - May 7, 2017

Interesting – where did you get the age breakdown?

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Occasional lurker - May 7, 2017

Independent.co.uk

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GW - May 7, 2017

And her dad was a jackbooted explicit anti-semite. She’s a lot subtler.

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GW - May 7, 2017

Perhaps you mis-read that figure.

No age-group preferred Le Pen. She peaked among the 35-49 year olds with the young and the old preferring Macron.

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Occasional lurker - May 7, 2017

I meant within her own voter block she is stronger with the younger voters than the older voters. It’s not a case of old people but the younger voters.

Down with the youth.

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12. Occasional lurker - May 8, 2017

Wonderful quote capturing the sense of optimism and all the enthusiasm of the young for Macron.

“Guy Kombila, 29, said: “For young people this is a kind of politics that resembles us – beyond left and right divides. We are young people, who travel everywhere around the world, we are open to the world and we are not the closed France of Marine Le Pen”

That’s what the left is up against. Post ideological feelings politics.

How do you persuade voters like that?

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alanmyler - May 8, 2017

How do you persuade them? Precarious employment on zero hours contracts, impossibly high housing costs, student debts that they’ll never be able to repay. Their material conditions. Unfortunately.

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ivorthorne - May 8, 2017

The rules of good fiction apply – Show. Don’t tell.

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13. Bartholomew - May 8, 2017

Looking at the map of the election results, both rounds, Le Pen’s strength was in two regions – the Mediterranean coast and the industrial north-east.

If you look at maps of PCF support from the 60s to the 80s, those were two of their three main regions of support. The best map I can find on the web is this, the vote for Marchais for president in 1981:

The third PCF region, the centre around Limoges, didn’t vote Le Pen, and in fact gave Mélenchon one of his two victories in the first round:

I wonder why this region didn’t go through the same shift? Or maybe it hasn’t just yet?

Also, while searching for maps of PCF support, I found this PCF poster from the 1979 legislative elections. Both image and text could be used by the FN today without any change:

‘I love my country. To fight against its decline, for an independent France, for a peaceful and democratic Europe, I joined the French Communist Party’

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14. paulculloty82 - May 9, 2017

Marion Maréchal Le Pen has quit politics – will a leadership struggle within the FN ensue?

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15. Gerryboy - May 9, 2017

A Chinese news website has a code name for president-elect Emmanuel Macron – Mark Long. This headline: “Xi Jinping with Mark Long on the phone: to promote Sino-French relations in a new starting point to a new level
National President Xi Jinping on the 9th with French elected President Mark Long on the phone.”
What code name do the Chinese have for Enda?
Is it Zhenda Gen- Hai? http://www.thepaper.cn/

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