In all the excitement… we missed the fact that there was a poll in the RoI yesterday… June 12, 2017
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.trackback
For the Sunday Times. And not great news for Fine Gael.
B&A puts the parties on the following:
Fianna Fail 29% (+2 points)
Fine Gael 29% (+1)
Sinn Fein 18% (unchanged)
Independent Alliance 5% (+1)
Labour 5% (+1)
Greens 3% (+1)
Solidarity/PBP 1% (unchanged)
Other Independents 9% (-3)
Social Democrats 1% (unchanged)
Pretty much all in the MOE. The ST famously has quite low ratings for Inds and others so make of that what you will in relation to Solidarity/PBP and the SDs.
But interesting, is it not, that there is no evidence of a Varadkar ‘bounce’. It’s only one poll but I’m not hugely surprised. I’ve wondered how his somewhat austere and distant persona will play more widely with the electorate. Time will tell and it’s entirely possible the next will show movement.
But intriguing too that he has been quoted as dismissing the idea of a run to the country in the near future to cement his leadership. Could it be that T. May’s disastrous performance will have influenced matters already?
Sure could!
The Cedar Lounge Revolution 
The two mainstream centrist parties FF & FG used to get between them 65 – 75 percent of the vote in general elections. Now according to an opinion poll they get between them only 48% of popular approval. It means that less half of the voting population believe in FF or FG. What then do voters believe in?
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I’m pretty sure FF and FG were getting 90% of the vote in the early 80s. Which makes the fall even more dramatic than you say.
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No bump for Varadkar. Almost as if nobody was especially enthused by him.
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Funny that.
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sorry, 58%
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They got just over 25/24 at the last GE, so this is a +9 increase in their total; worth bearing in mind. But the previous poll (forget which company) had FG on high 20s, FF on low 20s, something like FG 28 FF 21 if memory serves, or equal to the GE.
Polls showing a wide spread across parties, hmm. Where have we seen that before?
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The FF+FG vote did drop close to that in 1948 at 62%, when Clann na Poblachta and, to a lesser extent, Clann na Talmhan ate into their vote. Though clearly more of a blip in that case.
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My rough and ready maths shows the right-wing parties (FG, FF, PDs when they were there) getting 68.3% in the 1992 election, 71.9% in 1997, 68% in 2002, 71.6% in 2007 – all pretty consistent.
Then 53.5% in 2011 and 52% in 2016 with opinion polls largely in that same area (a real low in Mar 2015 at 41%, no doubt under the impact of water charges). So there does seem to be a clear long-term loss of 20 percentage points.
It gets hard to dig below that without making much more specific judgements on particular independents (and of course opinion polls just register an independent preference rather than asking “which independents”) but my impression would be that about half of that, ten percentage points, is available for what might be called objectively left positions (in the sense of Solidarity, PBP, WUAG and left independents) and half is really just looking for a “we’ll see you right” offer, available for Labour, SF, independents who aren’t committed to a left position etc. A bit rough and ready by way of analysis and it would be nice to see something more detailed if doable.
Details at https://www.academia.edu/31075937/The_Irish_water_charges_movement_theorising_the_social_movement_in_general
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The bloody seat boost they get also skews their seat numbers higher. At ~50% of the vote last year, they won 100/160 seats, when 80 would have been proportional.
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Core Votes Including UNDECIDED-UNADJUSTED
B@A Poll July 16
No Significant Change in Poll Despite Change of Taoiseach-Labour Back Below 3% in Core Vote Which is Less than One Fifth of Sinn Fein Vote and less than One Quarter of the OTHERS Vote–UNDECIDED THE BIGGEST CATEGORY IS UP 4.2% Since June
B&A Poll July 16 Margin of Error 3.3%
Total FF FG Lab SF Other/GR Undecided
923 203 208 25 132 119 236
Core% 22.0 22.5 2.7 14.3 12.9 25.6
B&A June 6
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE-But Labour Creep Just Above 3%
Parties FF FG Lab SF Other/GR Undecided
Core% 21.9 22.3 3.3 16.2 15.0 21.4
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