Brexit! What could possibly go wrong with that? November 9, 2018
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.trackback
Security…
A “no deal safety net unit” is being rushed through by Scotland Yard at a cost of more than £2.4m after police chiefs warned the home secretary that losing EU tools would make it harder to track sex offenders and terrorist suspects, according to internal police documents.
International reputation…
Philip Hammond, the chancellor, has said that if the UK were to follow the advice of some Brexiters and refuse to pay anything to the EU in the event of a no deal Brexit, it would not be seen as a reliable partner for international trade.
Haulage…
A lottery-style system could be used to allocate scarce haulage permits in the event of a no-deal Brexit, a Department for Transport paper has revealed.The paper says hauliers will need permits if no deal is struck, and the number of European Conference of Ministers of Transport (ECMT) permits available will be severely limited. One estimate suggests there will be only around 5% of the total required.
Civil Service…
Managers at the Environment Agency (EA) were given just 24 hours to name 75 staff to be sent to the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra). In September, the National Audit Office said Michael Gove’s department will not be ready for a no-deal Brexit, with meat and dairy and chemicals exports especially threatened.The loss of staff at the EA has also raised concerns. It is responsible for protecting the country from flooding as well as water, land and air pollution, but lost a significant number of staff between 2010 and 2018.The EA memo, headed “URGENT Action – immediate attention” and leaked to the Guardian, said: “We are gearing up our contingency planning for EU Exit and have been asked by Defra as a matter of urgency to provide staff.”
And… food safety!
Food safety in the UK and public confidence in it will be placed at risk if the government pursues a free-trade agreement with the US, a former Conservative environment minister has said.If imports of US-standard food were allowed, “you would have a huge decline in food safety,” said Lord Deben, now chairman of the Committee on Climate Change. “Food safety is a huge issue.”He said the US would stipulate allowing exports of its agricultural products to the UK in any free-trade agreement. “I know this – I’ve negotiated with them, for the whole of the EU,” he told the Guardian.
The Cedar Lounge Revolution 
Tory ultra-Brexiteer quoted in today’s Guardian: “Many of us have long believed that the row over the backstop is at least partly confected in order to have an orchestrated breakthrough”.
Negotiation tactics can be fascinating.
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There is an argument to say that May’s stalling was a cunning plan to rush an agreement through at the last minute.
But that IMO is to credit far too much agency to what is fundamentally a headless chicken government.
Cock-up trumps conspiracy nearly every time.
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Even assuming that May can get a deal agreed with the EU, I can’t for the life of me see how she’s going to get it through the British House of Commons.
Bloomberg has the figures here.
If Labour holds to it’s position re the six tests, it could defeat the government on the withdrawal bill, assuming there is one. That might lead to a general election, but AFAIK it doesn’t have to.
Currently I’d put the chances of no deal over 50%.
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And let’s just be clear: British Labour’s position on maintaining a customs market is necessary but not sufficient to avoid a hard border between the north and south of Ireland. It also requires the North to stay in a significant part of the single market.
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Anyone willing to critique JC’s Labour position on Brexit. Have we let him off the hook a bit? – I think I heard him say, more or less, that Labour wouldn’t be having any border down the Irish sea either.
When he takes power, maybe he won’t be in favour of a UI after all?
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The Labour Party’s position seems fairly close to the position of the EU.
If May and the EU cobble together a Withdrawal Agreement its not entirely clear that Labour will oppose it.
“If the final deal is anything less than the government has promised, Labour will not support it,” said Starmer.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/06/brexit-92-of-momentum-members-want-labour-to-back-second-vote
Besides…”Multiple Labour MPs have told The Independent they are prepared to support the Brexit agreement Theresa May hopes to bring back from Brussels, boosting the prime minister’s chances of forcing it through parliament.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/no-deal-brexit-labour-party-eu-uk-remain-leave-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn-a8581511.html
In such an event the DUP would be irrelevant.
‘Ms Foster… said the leak of the private correspondence between the DUP and Theresa May came from London and she did not know what the motivation was for the leak.’
https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/1109/1009709-brexit/
Of course to get to a vote in parliament May would first have to get it through the cabinet.
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The [DUP] letter adds that the constructive engagement strategy of the UK government’s negotiators has not always been reciprocated by the EU. On the backstop, it says the EU has ignored what was agreed and “instead proposed what it wished was agreed”.
Cheeky buggers.
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“EU and UK negotiators are close to a breakthrough on the draft of a Brexit deal …
At a briefing for ambassadors in Brussels on Friday evening, EU negotiators said there was broad consensus with London on the structure of an exit treaty and Irish border “backstop”, which the two sides ideally aim to seek political approval for next week.
This includes three options to avoid a hard border in Ireland: a successor agreement; an extension of Britain’s transition; and a new “backstop” plan including a customs union for the whole UK….
While outlining the tentative compromises under discussion, Sabine Weyand, the EU’s deputy chief negotiator, warned diplomats that there remained significant obstacles to overcome.”
https://www.ft.com/content/4cfbdbf0-e458-11e8-a6e5-792428919cee
Meanwhile in NYC: Mary Lou McDonald TD said:
“Brexit is a disaster for Ireland, north and south.
There is an onus on of us all to protect Irish interests. Sinn Féin has stood shoulder to shoulder with the Taoiseach and with European leaders to defend the interests of our peace agreements, our economy and our people.
In the face of British bad faith and intransigence the Taoiseach must stand firm and the Irish government must be resolute.
It is alarming that earlier this week the Taoiseach moved away from the agreed position on the backstop.
Considering a review clause is a dangerous move and a reckless mistake.
The Taoiseach must correct this mistake.The EU and British Government are looking on and we need a sure footed and confident Taoiseach. This week we saw a Taoiseach who looked uncertain and naive under pressure.
Leo Varadkar need to be firm, he needs to clear and he needs to be consistent. The backstop that was agreed in December must be put in place. It must be legally enforceable and must remain in place as our insurance policy.”
http://www.sinnfein.ie/contents/51501
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Meanwhile Politico and other news sites are reporting that UK diplomats have been extolling the economic and political benefits of EU membership to non-EU Balkan states, urging them to implement reforms so that they can join the bloc. Just pure madness, altogether.
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Maybe May is more wily than we usually think. Suppose she does a deal acceptable to the EU (and by extension, Ireland.) It would have to be of the softish, Brexit-in-name-only variety. She’s then in a no-lose situation vis-à-vis Parliament. Only 2 possible outcomes.
(A) If she gets it through, she’s sitting pretty until 2022. The DUP/Tory ERG will huff and puff but will sit tight and dream of loosening the ties that will remain post-deal.
(B) If she doesn’t, she’ll not call a general election. Why would she? The Tory hard brexiteers/DUP won’t pull her down because they’re afraid of a Labour led government after a general election. She then says Parliament, in refusing to vote through Brexit, is rejecting the will of the people and the people must have their say on this betrayal. She therefore puts the deal to a second referendum. It probably gets rejected (the Brexiteers can hardly SUPPORT it seeing as they rejected it in Parliament!) If it’s rejected, she asks the EU to “forget” about the Article 50 application. The EU says: fine, whatever you’re having yourself. She’s still secure until 2022. If it’s accepted, then it’s back to parliament, Tory and Labour alike will feel obliged to vote it through. Again, she’s sitting pretty until 2022. If Parliament and the referendum vote in different directions, she says the country can’t make up its mind and therefore asks the EU to “forget” about the Article 50 application. Again, she’s secure until 2022.
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Sorry, that should have read ” (the Brexiteers can hardly SUPPORT it seeing as they rejected it in Parliament!) ”
WBS, perhaps you can edit?
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Done!
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Good summary here.
https://www.lrb.co.uk/v40/n21/swati-dhingra/what-would-it-be-like
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