That General Election: Voting Day Open Thread December 12, 2019
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.trackback
Any observations from the coalface whether in Britain or in the North?
for lefties too stubborn to quit
Any observations from the coalface whether in Britain or in the North?
donalfallon on That talk of a Labour/Social D… | |
Colm on A stick? | |
roddy on A stick? | |
Colm B on That talk of a Labour/Social D… | |
Fergal on A stick? | |
Colm B on A stick? | |
Colm B on A stick? | |
irishfabian+ on That talk of a Labour/Social D… | |
Hamid on That talk of a Labour/Social D… | |
Colm B on What you want to say – 17th Ap… | |
Brian Hanley on A stick? | |
sonofstan on A stick? | |
Tomboktu on What you want to say – 17th Ap… | |
John Goodwillie on A stick? | |
irishfabian+ on That talk of a Labour/Social D… |
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Visited two polling stations – we moved early last month and I had moved my vote, but never received a polling card at new address, whereas I did get one at the old one. So went to that polling station, to discover I’d been removed from the register there, quick phone call to Leeds City Council to find out where I should be voting, got there to discover my name had been crossed off, but then a list was produced headlined -I’m not joking – ‘names crossed off in error’ – and I was, eventually, able to vote. This was all between 7 -7.20, both stations busy-ish.
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I’m still amazed at the lack of posters
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Two desks instead of one for issuing ballot papers in my polling station around 0845, and there was a queue at each of them (normally there’s no queue at the one desk, or at most one person in front of me). Looks like turnout might be up, though that time is also just after people drop their kids to the school next door.
No party officials outside asking how we voted though, which is unusual.
My big, big A4 envelope of election literature will be going in the post tomorrow, including Lib Dem lying bar charts and fake local papers and a couple of “Mogg Out” top hat posters.
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I wonder who high turnout benefits
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In my constituency, I would think increased turnout benefits Labour. It was the Wansdyke constituency until 2010, which covered Keynsham with the old Cadbury’s plant, and a number of old mining towns (one of them elected two Independent Labour Party councillors until a few years ago). The boundary change in 2010 brought in the bit where I live now and made it solidly Tory (lots of picture postcard villages that vote the way you’d expect).
At the last election it was Tories 53.6%, Labour 34.7%, Lib Dem 8.3%, Green 2.3%.
My guess, and it is no more than a guess, is that Rees Mogg has been losing votes every time he opens his mouth (which is why they have locked him in a box for the last four weeks) and people who would normally vote Lib Dem (the city of Bath, which is surrounded by the NES constituency, has a Lib Dem MP) will vote tactically for Labour (the candidate is an ex FT journalist so he won’t frighten the horses or their owners). Add to that some recovery in disillusioned Labour voters who didn’t vote last time and I think there is an outside, but good, chance of Labour winning it.
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That’s good and positive!
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Fingers crossed. Mogg and Raab out would be great, Johnson, a very heaven.
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And Umunna, Gyimah, Duncan Smith (very shaky), Johnson (not looking safe: I put a couple of quid on Labour pushing him out), and so many other people.
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And Swinson.
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And Freedland, Behr, Toynbee, …
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Johnson’s too much to hope for, but Swinson losing her seat would be gravy.
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How wrong can you be: Mogg took a 3.3% drop in votes, but still got over 50%; Lib Dems added 13.8% of the vote; Labour dropped 10.5%.
Lot of miserable people at work today.
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Crumbs of comfort: Labour held on to all of urban Leeds, and Sobel, my lad, increased his majority and the LDs came third. Not sure why I’m pleased the Tory beat them, but there you are. Also, Steve Baker, who had a 20k majority in Wycombe in 15 had it cut to 4k by Khalil Ahmed, a fine candidate, and local, unlike the London barrister dropped on the constituency back then.
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High turnout = Labour has to be praying for turnout to move the opinion poll dials dramatically I’d guess?
The one thing that’ll falsify those statistical shysters is a cohort of people that they weren’t measuring / modeling.
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Onwards to victory a chairde.
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Voted at 10.30 in old settled working class area of Glasgow. Very few voters, but midmorning is slack time. Only Labour and SNP reps at the gates – only serious horses in my constituency race.
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My partner just back from voting in same station, now crowded!
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Hopefully crowded with young first-time voters out to vote Labour. C’mon Jez!
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Nope, don’t think so Joe – crowded with pro-indy voters determined to escape the hell of Tory Britain.
Today Bougainville, tomorrow Scotland!
Confused?…google “Bougainville independence referendum” and you’ll get a bonus of finding out what Bertie Ahern is up to these days.
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Be interesting to get your take on the Scottish results, Colm.
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Oh and by the way, welcome back SoS.
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Listen lads. I’m getting excited. I’ve just done a scientific overview of voting intentions, based on my Facebook feed. Yes! Labour in a landslide!
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The Tories seem to have gotten their ideal weather, assuming that it’s true that low turnout is good for the Tories. But is that true as their voters get older and older?
Purely anecdotal reports of high turnout from younger people. Wait and see.
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But that might just be people wanting to vote in daylight. I guess the last 6 hours of (after school, work etc. ) voting are in darkness.
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Turnout is everything in this election, I imagine. I presume the polls are reasonably precise and that if turnout broadly matches past elections, the Tories will b back in tomorrow and we will be feeding of slim emotional pickings to take any joy from events – such as a few hjigh level losses.
But if the turnout demographics move significantly, its surely all to play for. And, in these last hours, I’m hopeful that the anti-Brexit/anti-Tory feeling will bring out more of the youth than in the past. And at the same time, surely the ‘get Brexit done,’ message is a little slim and uninspiring for many of the Tories – including those who voted remain in 2016.
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And further to that, wouldn’t it be remarkable if Brexit is pushed through via a Tory win today, despite the fact that countless polls over the last year have shown that there is now an anti-brexit majority in the UK?
How has that not been part of the narrative of the election?
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Because no-one, including the BLP, chooses to make it part of the narrative.
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If they had made the election into a proxy Brexit referendum, they would have been crushed for the simple reason that the LibDem plus Green irreducible core vote is larger than the Brexit Party plus UKIP one. Plus the fact that Remain Tory voters fear mild social democracy more than Brexit. You can argue that they should have done it on principle no matter what or you can argue that they will be crushed anyway, but people who want them to stand as the Remain Party should at least be honest enough with themselves to understand that it means a guaranteed Tory majority.
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https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/12/what-we-want
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I wouldn’t disagree with anything you’ve said there, pettyburgess, and you’ve said it all very well.
To some extent my question was rhetorical, but I think that – outside of your v strong points re the political mechanisms – it says something remarkable about the media landscape in the UK that this wasn’t pushed as a story by any source I saw. I literally never saw it get a single mention.
It will interesting to look back on this from the vantage point of 20 or 30 yrs hence – if I get to do so – and see how the history is written. Will the story hold that Brexit was a popular act demanded by the electorate hold, or will that narrative unravel over the next few years?
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It is, by the way, very cold, and now very wet here in Yorkshire. May affect turnout for those on their way home from work/ uni.
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On the plus side, Leeds are top of the table.
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You know everywhere I’ve ever lived I’ve made a point of lending my support to the local team for at least the time I’m there – but I can’t bring myself to go near dirty Leeds. So I’ve been going to see Guiseley FC in the National League North instead….
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Ah here. WBS, I wish to recall my previous message viz “Oh and by the way, welcome back SoS.” 🙂
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These reports of queues at polling stations, like never before. Please tell me that’s a sign of hope?
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If it’s not just anecdotal, sure it is. I continue to live in hope for a few minutes at least.
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The young son telling me that the odds on the Tories have been shortening all day and the odds on Labour lengthening. Fookin bookies, sure what would they know?
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The bookies know. Like they knew last week when they closed the book on the Dublin manager’s job because of the flood of money that came in for Tommy Conroy. And Dessie Farrell just got the job. The bookies know diddley squat.
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From what I know of bookies (not much) they are interested in covering their own arses by slashing odds where the punters are putting their money, so the question is really do you trust the punters?
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Novara Media streaming live on Youboob if you wan’t a different take. Ash Sarkar and Grace Blakeley.
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Well, fuck. 368 / 190!
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Oh dear. I think I’ll have another drink and go to bed.
Fuck you Lexiteers.
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Jesus, this is a much worse night than I’d expected. TBH, I’d thought the Tories would solidify their vote because of Brexit, but this is way beyond that.
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100% agree…utterly depressing.
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If exit poll correct, SNP tsunami in Scotland – 55 out of 58 seats. So that probably means 1/0 Labour, 1/2 LD and 2/3 Tories.
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How could this happen. In a decade the LP has literally shrivelled up and died in Scotland. Got to blame the Blair period, but there’s also a truth that the Corbyn LP just wasn’t reaching back to the parts that had been lost. On a better day an SNP/BLP lash-up would be good.
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Definitely the Blair years. And the knowledge that the SNP would prob count as a proxy Labour vote in Westminster.
The clamour for Scottish independence will be huge now, with Brexit done by January.
While closer to home, any argument for even mild social democracy will be laughed out of the conversation.
Utterly depressing. Time to curl up into a ball and hide.
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England and Wales are going to have a depressing five years, but Scotland and the North of Ireland will be interesting.
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Jo Swinson may be gone, good riddance.
God though this is depressing.
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Ash Sarkar: “It isn’t called Corbynism it’s called socialism.”
So much for the personality cult.
Also how do you do class politics if you embrace a right-wing project like Brexit, that’s going to swamp them?
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It’s a hard right nationalist hyper-neolib Tory party that’s coming.
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Lucy Powell on R4 talking abotu the British people rejecting Labour’s ‘offer’. It’s not a fucking offer, it’s socialism.
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