Anyone want to say who they’re voting for, or even who they’re definitely not voting for, in their constituencies? February 7, 2020
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.trackback
I admire NFB’s openness, not sure I’d want to pin my colours to the mast in quite the same way other than to say any left candidate of whatever stripe, and I use a broad definition, will get a preference from me, though some less enthusiastically than others. I do like PRSTV, the option to vote for a range of people, or all, does make one think fairly solidly about the vote.
Any others want to say who they are definitely voting for? Or who definitely not?
The Cedar Lounge Revolution 
Ok as an emigrant I don’t get to vote so lm going to use CLR as a substitute.
1 RISE/Ind Left
2 S/PBP
3 SF
4 SD
5 LP
6 GP
Touch n go whether I could have the stomach to give the last three a preference but I guess useless social liberals might cause a tad less harm than the full on neolib conservatives of FF and FG
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Currently, but I’m always open to bribes.
1 Ryan
2 Brien
3 Harrold
4 Costello
5 Gannon
Stopping there. On reading it, it’s effectively a vote for Gannon unless Costello surprises and is ahead of the young lad.
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Just thought of Christy Burke. Probably not getting a vote from me but I might take a figary in the polling booth and stick him in there at 4 or 5. Could make a difference.
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Probably the same for me, minus Joe C. and possibly plus Hourigan, depending on the mood.
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“Probably the same for me”
I blame the Christian Brothers.
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The first time I heard the expression ‘sticky’ was in OCS…
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I remember asking a classmate who I thing had been hanging around Gardiner Place a bit, probably in 1975, what was the difference between Official Sinn Féin and the IRSP. I’ll always remember his answer, “IRSP bang bang”.
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I’m in your constituency Joe. Pity us, eh for the ‘choice’ we have – not least because MLM is going to walk it so there’s the functional issue of who after her would (I at least) like to see who has a real chance of taking a seat. Ah that Tony G was still here. Still, no vote or preference will be wasted.
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I’ll be posting my actual vote tomorrow but as of now:
1. SF
2. SD
3. I4C
4. S-PBP
5. S-PBP
6. GP
That’s it. Though the GP vote is still a bit of a question mark as I know they are FF/FG enablers like the LP.
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Like Colm B, I’ve no vote, but if I were still in Tallaght, I’d have canvassed for Paul Murphy or Sandra Fay and I’d give the number 2 to the other, followed by SD, GP, Lab (?). Still can’t quite bring myself to vote SF, even in theory.
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#1 Seamus McDonagh (WP). I’m a party member so this one is obvious. Unfortunately he has little chance of getting a seat based on previous outings.
#2 Sean McCabe (GP). Yes, a Green at #2. Yes I agree that the Greens are FG on bikes. But two things. Firstly the guy works for TASC. Secondly the climate change agenda ungently needs escalation. If fresh blood from a vaguely Left direction can make the GP evolve into a political vehicle to do something constructive about that then I’ll vote for that. Remember that CLR post about Left entryism into the GP? Sounds good to me.
#3 Darren O’Rourke (SF). Yes, a WP member voting for a Shinner, who’d have thought! He’s the most likely candidate to get the last seat. I’m on board for that “Progressive Bloc” model that Michael Taft has been advocating. It’s time to end the FG FF duopoly of power and in this election SF are the best vehicle available to do that. Completely prepared to be disappointed when they cave and enter coalition with FF but there you go, SF’s presence on the Left and its social democratic rhetoric south of the border are an impediment to further Left politics so worst case they get flushed out and the rest of us get to move on in their wake in the future.
4# Andrew Keegan (PBP). Possibly I should have him nearer the top, Left solidarity and all of that, but he has no hope of being elected and I’m not too sure why he’s moved from Dublin NW out here for this election. He’ll get a preference but I expect my vote to terminate with the election of O’Rourke above.
#5 Annie Hoey (Lab). Quite a bit of nose holding obviously going on by this stage but that “Progressive Bloc” thing and the relatively limited choice in Meath East mean that she gets my final preference.
That’s it. The other candidates are Thomas Byrne and Deirdre Geraghty Smith (FF), Helen McEntee and Regina Doherty (FG), Joe Bonner and Sharon Keogan (Ind), and Sharon Toibin (Aontu), none of whom will be getting the steam off my piss let alone a preference. No Social Democrat standing in Meath East, otherwise they’d get a preference ahead of Labour. Thankfully also no “patriot” (alt-right / fascist / xenophobe) from ACI / NP / IFP.
My prediction for the 3 seats, Thomas Byrne (FF), Helen McEntee (FG), Darren O’Rourke (SF).
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This almost certainly won’t surprise anybody, but for Dublin Fingal.
1 Terry Kelleher Solidarity
2 John Uwhumiakpor PBP
3 Dean Mulligan I4C
I’m undecided if I even want to go beyond that, probably not, the only potentially compelling rationale is the weakness of that FG seat, but I’d see that as probably being between Mulligan and Clifford-Lee of FF if it were to go so I’m already covered on that.
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Kerry is arguably the constituency in the country with the fewest candidates of any shade of left, so will give my number 1 to Cleo Murphy of the Greens – pretty much hold-your-nose territory afterwards, as still reluctant personally to vote SF.
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Deprived of my vote as well but if I were voting in Sligo-Leitrim:
1. Declan Bree
2. SF
3. Trot franchises
That’s it. Still couldn’t stomach a low preference for LP or the Greens. Haven’t forgotten, haven’t forgiven.
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Monaghan/Cavan
1. SF – local candidates do good work for all people in Monaghan & have done so for yonks now (SF council area) + national candidate very approachable
2. PBP – wonder if he’ll get more than a few 100 but would like to be surprised. The times they are a-changing? Could give him 1st but given the type of constituency and the strenghth of the FFG candidates really need to go with SF. (I know of a very decent 74yo man who’s voting Humphreys #1 because daddy and mammy voted FG. Not as common as before but still not uncommon.)
3. Green – yerra why not…sure a 21yo student needs encouragement…could do well with younger voters
4. hmmm…maybe LP…or…maybe not…sounds like a decent fella…but…he’s LP…oh why not?…because…?…probably not…?…if he gives me a fiver?…?…
5. the rest…https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tH2w6Oxx0kQ
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I know Emmett Smith from when he was in NUIG, I hope he polls well.
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I have an inkling I’ve heard of him before. I think he’s up towards the Cavan Town area, so I expect his votes will mainly be concentrated there abouts. Still, there are pockets of dissatisfaction all over the two counties now, but some Monaghan people won’t consider him because Cavan. Go figure. Plus, he really doesn’t make the news too often in the Northern Standard, and forget about Northern Sound radio.
Still, here’s hoping he gets a solid vote on which to build future momentum. His inclusion in the election certainly adds another dimension that we were lacking in the area.
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In Louth, so PBP, Greens, undecided between Labour and SF. The Labour candidate is Ged Nash who is one of their better candidates. As the SF guy ought to get in on transfers I cd be saying Get Ged in there
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Just reading through the comments and voting intentions here, I’m struggling to understand why left-leaning voters are declining to support SF in what could be a seminal election for progressive representation in this country. Those who have left comments are either not voting SF in any circumstances or are placing an SF preference well down the list.
Where is all the talk now of the need for a left-leaning bloc in Dáil Éireann. And yes, before anyone says it, I know and agree with many of the criticisms of SF, historical, structural and policy-wise.
But this an opportunity to initiate real change in how we do electoral politics, however imperfect an opportunity. Yet some would rather we stick with what we have, what we have always done, in the hopes of some farway revolution that is no more likely now than it was forty years ago.
Which makes that sort of thinking not much different from the types who still profess loyalty to an Army Council and some imagined handover of legal powers from the last TD of a “legitimate” Republican government decades ago.
I’m not saying this to attack people. I respect everyone who takes part here. Just genuinely bemused by the thinking that doing what we’ve always done is some day going to end in a different result. Like, hold your nose and vote SF number one and then gote left down the ballot paper. What’s the worse that could happen?
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Respectfully ASF. Genuinely respectfully. Hold my nose? I’d have to chop off my bollocks.
I was tempted over the last few weeks (to give SF a preference not to chop off my bollocks) but it turns out it’s pretty much hard-wired in me. Clearly you and me have different takes on the 30-year conflict.
But like you, I was surprised at the lack of SF 1s and even preferences from many of the contributors to this thread. Maybe I’m not as wrong as I thought everybody thought I was.
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LOL! Fair enough. But I would have thought the temptation of having up to 50 leftish TDs in the Dáil on a good day, presuming a clutch of SF TDs and others riding in on their transfers, would have been enough to make you go for the figurative chop?
Like, I get that your read of the Troubles would not be mine. Not fully anyway. But when do you close the chapter on that? Or do you never vote SF and just continue to grumble about living under FF and FG governments with no realistic hope of seeing anything else?
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But when do you close the chapter on that?
Great question. I’m working on an answer. On the one hand, and I should say this, I really admire and support SF’s commitment to the peace process for the last twenty plus years. Good on them and stick with it.
And the thirty year conflict was full of bastards on all sides and we were all guilty of being bastards.
So why won’t I vote SF now?
I think … because they are pushing for a border poll now (too soon and dangerous in my view).
I think also… and I don’t know where this comes from… I think of northern prods and what they might think when they see us southerners voting in big numbers for SF.
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Those are fair points Joe, but… again, are unionists really going to worry too much when already they are surrounded by SF voters, and rather more immediately an issue than the south (which many of them are all too willing to ignore). The other point is and I think I made it elsewhere, it’s not in the gift of SF to get a border poll up and running, so that’s purely rhetoric on their part.
I’m like you ASF, I’m surprised at how few people are giving even a preference to SF and I’d have much the same questions, at what point do matters move on (I’ve voted SF since the early 1990s, no small part of that was to support them moving towards a fully constitutional position, part of it was because they were sticking to a broadly leftist position, progressive particularly on immigration etc, when it would have been very easy for a different sort of party to adopt very different positions – I thought long and hard about that first time I gave them a high preference, I’d say I agonised about it if that didn’t sound melodramatic, but the equation was straighforward, they were then and subsequently, making efforts no other formation on the island had or has to move to a different stance, so I don’t think that vote or those after was wasted), how can people who have voted the LP in the past not vote for a party that is by any standard to their left, etc, etc. That’s not in the way of a criticism, people have every right to vote for who they like, just I’m struggling to see how matters progress from where we are if even the functionally social democratic SF (and certainly well to the left of the actual SDs) isn’t worth even a nod. And I think Alan’s point above is well made, if they do disappoint, well, at least that’s one more down and the space and scope for others to supplant them will open up.
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“I think of northern prods and what they might think when they see us southerners voting in big numbers for SF.”
Do you ever think of what northern catholics/Republicans might feel under those circumstances?
Might they think that the irish people in the ROI are really reaching out to them?
Which group do you feel more affinity with? Northern irish republicans/nationalists or British Unionists/loyalists?
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Which group do you feel more affinity with? Northern irish republicans/nationalists or British Unionists/loyalists?
Depends. Who do they follow? Leeds or Man U or Chelsea? What music are they into? Punk and New Wave or all the other crap that came after?
What kind of jokes do they like?
Would they like this one for instance?:
Q: If you’re Australian when you’re going into the jacks and you’re Australian when you’re coming out of the jack, what are you when you’re in the jacks?
A: European.
Geddit?
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But giving SF Number 1 is not using your vote effectively. SF are going to be ahead of the radical left candidates in every constituency but I doubt if SF candidates will have much of a surplus when elected. So if you vote SF No 1 your vote will not continue to work to elect a radical left TD.
On the other hand if you vote radical left candidates No 1 and then transfer to SF, since far left candidates are definitely going to be behind SF, if they get eliminated your vote helps to elect an SF TD.
If you want far-left to have some representation in the next Dail (and that’s vitally important, even just to make SF hesitate over coalition with right) the only chance is if they get enough No 1s.
Its not about nose-holding its just voting logic – I want as many far-left TDs as possible and I want SF to take as many seats as possible from the right. No 1 radical left, No.2 SF!
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But we Southerners have pushed for SF to be in government in Belfast for the last three. So, as Jeffrey Donaldson observed, if it’s good enough for Belfast, why not Dublin? Yep, it’s special circumstances, GFA and all that, but the principle remains. Nordie Prods are under an SF power-sharing administration. Why not Southie Prods, Taigs and Others under a coalition administration including SF?
As for the border poll, SF won’t get that unless it leads or takes up half the seats in a coalition government. Which not possible yet.
So meantime, we get a left-wing bloc in the Dáil, perhaps leading the Opposition, and perhaps facing off against a right-wing FF-FG-Lab coalition government?
Isn’t that the interim dream scenario for most of us on the political left? A proper left-right division of national politics, forcing FF and FG ever closer to together and clearing out the grey area the Establishment relies upon to pass power back and forth between different but complimentary parts of the same Golden Circle?
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Tuigim thú ach ní aontaím leat a chara.
Sin é mar atá. Leanaimís leis an díospóireacht agus leis an gcaradas.
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“Tiocfaidh ár lá….
It looks like that day might be here…
we live in a New Ireland now. The past is another country….
Sinn Féin is picking up votes in areas it wouldn’t have dared tiptoe a few years ago….
Sinn Féin’s breakthrough means it will be at the table in tortuous coalition talks. Horse-trading begins on Monday with no clear path to government. Proportional representation means that in Ireland there’s as much politics after the election as before it….
To outsiders, it seems strange that the fastest growing, best-educated country in the EU, a liberal democracy run by a competent, gay, mixed-race Taoiseach should lurch so suddenly to the ethno-nationalist left. It would be lazy to lump Ireland in with nativist trends elsewhere…
a vote for Sinn Féin… is not an endorsement of narrow-gauge nationalism…..Sinn Féin embraces multiculturalism….
In the US, nativism is fuelled in part by economic nostalgia. Ireland doesn’t do economic nostalgia. We’ve never had it so good. National income has never been higher, unemployment never lower….
The Sinn Féin surge is not an old-fashioned Catholic vote against liberalism….
Sinn Féin offers something else: change, and a protest vote against the establishment for voters who feel they don’t have a stake. The party are outsiders; the established duopoly are the insiders, with one propping up a government led by the other….
Sinn Féin was a working-class party; today, it is picking up support in the critical 30-45 age group, the commuter classes of Leinster and Munster. The big issues there are housing, transport and childcare.
Sinn Féin promises rent freezes and an expansion of public housing. It will tax corporations, particularly multinational companies. It offers a typical, left-of-centre shopping list, financed by borrowing and higher taxes on the rich….
In the past days, the connection between the IRA and Sinn Féin in the North has dominated headlines, but most voters in the Republic are weary of the past. One in four are prepared to give Sinn Féin a chance….
Longer term, demography is destiny. The main parties are dying, literally. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, who have dominated politics for 100 years, can claim only around 25 per cent support among the under-40s. Politically, New Ireland is up for grabs and Sinn Féin’s hat is in the ring.”-David McWilliams
https://www.ft.com/content/a87f5afe-48fe-11ea-aee2-9ddbdc86190d
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McWilliams is an interesting one. I kind of think he’s more than half-admiring of SF in some ways.
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I think he has some sympathy with the concept of the “disruptor” influence or force so popular in hipster techie circles and kinda sees SF in that light?
Plus he has a kind of small “r” republican gloss to some his writing. Kind of a mix of Seán Lemass economic republicanism with Gaelscoil cultural nationalism, if you get me?
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That’s true re the disruptor stuff. And I guess he is in that Republican-lite constituency. Not the worst in a way.
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Williams’ hero is Milton Friedman, so his weltanschauung is essentially neoliberal.
But he’s nothing if not trendy, and being ‘with it’ now means recognizing SF as the vehicle for the disaffection with the status quo. What Williams fails to grasp is that the neoliberal economics he has long espoused is what is generating the discontent; ill fares the land where capital accumulates and quality of life decays.
The anti-republican fulminations of EH, RDE, et al,-the psychopathology of revisionism- still have some, but diminishing, influence.
A lot will depend on turnout in working class areas.
May the ruling classes tremble….
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‘McWilliams’
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Probably worth mentioning that the son will be voting tomorrow up in Dublin South Central in his first general election. He’s voting SF, as are most of his mates in college, most of them middle class lads whose well to do parents of my generation would no doubt have run a mile from SF. What that sounds to me, admittedly on a ridiculously tiny anecdotal sample, is that the youth vote that brought in change in the Marriage Equality and Repeal referenda is going to carry into this election, and that because SF have the apparent critical mass to make change happen they are going to be the beneficiaries. Interesting times ahead people.
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Heard much the same – I think if this election prises open a space beyond FF/FG, shows there’s alternatives across the spectrum then that will be something
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Makes perfect sense for any clued-in young middle class gen Y-er (not, not millennial — eff right off) or late gen X-er to vote SF. It’s not an original thought, but the housing policies of FF-FG and their enablers have put a stable, affordable home out of the reach of even the privileged scions of (upper-!)middle-class boomers. I speak from experience.
And so today I shall, as always, vote in my narrow middle-class self-interest, viz. Joan Collins, Bríd Smith, Aengus Ó Snodaigh, SD, (*holds nose*) LP and GP, in that order.
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Carlow-Kilkenny
1. Kathleen Funchion – SF
2. Malcolm Noonan – GP
Coin toss between an FF candidate (not John McGuinness) and PBP for 3, 4 and 5.
Yes I’m giving a relatively high preference vote for an FF candidate. I hate the blueshirts and Labour more. Sue me.
Also I pray to god that SF don’t go into coalition with FF.
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+1
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I’m in Dublin South Central:
1 Brid Smith, PBP
2 Joan Collins, I4C
3 Aengus Ó Snodaigh, SF
4 Tara Deacy, SDs
Couldn’t bring myself to give a preference to Labour or the Greens, wouldn’t trust them an inch.
With reference to the discussion further up the thread, no aversion as such to giving SF a high preference, just that Smith and Collins would be more my natural “gene pool.” Plus I don’t entirely trust SF not to disappoint a lot of their voters by coalescing with FFG for the sake of getting into government.
@alanmyler: Your son will help O Snodaigh to romp home in DSC, I fully expect him to get at least a quote and a half – that’s another reason for not giving him my #1, he won’t need it as much! SF ran two candidates here last time, I think they’ll regret not doing so again.
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Roscommon/Galway
1. Kenny Tynan (PBP)
2. Claire Kerrane (SF).
3 Julie O’Donoghue (Greens) kind of scraping the barrel at this stage but options are limited here.
I’m seeing predictions online including from irishelectionliterature of this parish that Kerrane might win. I can see her doing well – she’s a personable and energetic candidate – but I’m not sure who she would replace of the sitting TDs. I don’t see Fitzmaurice or Naughten losing, and it’s difficult to see the constituency without an FF TD. Then again it has a recent history of febrile results and SF have momentum in the polls so who knows. If the two FF candidates Murphy and Leyden cancel each other out – apparently they have an abrasive relationship – she might capitalise.
National polls aside, I don’t see FG regaining their seat here. The FG candidate, Aisling Dolan, only joined FG two months ago after being elected as an independent ‘environmentalist’ councillor in Ballinasloe last May. I think ersatz FG Naughten will get a lot of traditional FG voters, even in Dolan’s Ballinasloe town heartland where he’s been canvassing.
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I voting for the progressive block down the line without exceptions and without illusions. As to the order:
SF 1, PBP 2 (these would have been in reverse but I am still sore over their Brexit behaviour) SDs 3 GP 4 LP 5. All those parties stood together outside city hall along with others to oppose fascism the other week, a litmus test for any left voter I think.
I think there is an outside chance that we could end up with an SF and a Green TD and watch Coveney, Mcgrath and Martin scramble for the last 2.
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Cork south central
Voting progressive block down the line, no illusions, wash myself afterwards.
1 SF
2 PBP(would have been 1 but Brexit antics still rankle)
3 Soc Dems
4 LP
5 GP
they were all at the anti fascist protest at city hall a good litmus test for left voters
there is an outside chance that SF and greens might take a seat each causing one of the most interesting blood letting counts of the election
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+1 re litmus test.
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I usually take the view that my vote is between me and the ballot box. But I will confess that my first preference goes to a candidate committed to never entering coalition with FF or FG and then I drill down to other leftists, including the Labour Party.
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Yes, and I really didn’t expect people to be so open – and it’s very much appreciated. Then again, we’re all on the left, in some ways it’s a matter of prioritisation isn’t it? As I said above, how people vote, how they select someone to vote for is entirely up to them.
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Cork North West
1. Ciaran McCarthy (SD)
2. Collette Finn (GP)
how depressing…
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1) Workers’ Party – Eilis Ryan
2) Joe Costello
No one else. WP are the truth, Joe’s a good local politico who has his failings but its generally well better than his party.
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Dublin Central- MLM so safe dont think she needs me up high so ill help PBP’s Gillian Brien and Eilís Ryan of na Greamaithaigh keep their deposits with 1 and 2 . Highish preference for high profile GG of the SD.
I can already hear yez scoffing, but I think some day the Greens have to realise the anti capitalist consequences of their environmentalism so something for Neasa Hourigan. Sin é táim ag ceapadh.
Cant forgive Labour yet for Howlins revelling at Syriza’ s collapse, its anti Corbynism, and its loyal service to the extreme centre. So sorry Joe.
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Doh! id forgotten about Christy Burke and Rita Harrold of Solidarity until id started my vote this morning . Was rushed coz they d moved my station ( confusion by State over Baile Phib and Baile Philib) then they couldnt find my vote and i had to ring a number { Such is the lot of those who try to use the first official language in dealings with the state ) .Anyway a very efficient woman on the phone got me sorted and i tore into the paper only to see Rita and Christy looking at me imploringlly . Could only give them low preferences. Neither had much of poster or leaflet profile in my home to work axis ( both in constituency ) . Daft to have Rita and Gillian of PBP both running. Pé scéal é seo mar a chaith mé mo vóta:
1 Gillian Brien PBP
2. Eilish Ryan WP
3. Niamh Hourigan GP
4. Gary Gannon SD
5. MLM SF
6. Rita Harrold Solidarity
7. Christy Burke
Tomorrow should be v interesting. After Corbyn smear campaign am bit worried about last few days Irish media red scare. But still hopeful. As CL said: Go mbainfear croitheadh as lucht an rachmais!
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DMW:
1: WP
2: PBP
3: GP
4: SF1
5: SF2
6: Local mildly left independent
7: Former GP TD
8: Lab
9: FF1 to get up the nose of the antichoice huxter that is FF2 (and partly because she’s on the ticket because she’s not one of the FF councillors whom he doesn’t want building a base that might threaten him)
10: FG1 to get up the nose of the unctuous FG2
No preference for FG2 or FF2.
I think that is what a 4 or a 5, or a 7 or an 8 is for: if my higher preferences are gone or already elected and I had to choose between those remaining, which would I prefer more or dislike less. I’ve no doubt I’d prefer more or dislike less the local Lab candidate over the current FF TD, and that I’d prefer Gogarty over her, so that’s what the numbers are for.
(12 candidates here. 10 are outgoing TDs or sitting councillors. The other two are party candidates who have been in it for the long haul.)
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Brilliant – love it!
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I’ve had the experience quite a few times of my vote not electing a candidate. In the 2015 locals, I voted no. 1 for the candidate who was the last one standing when all the seats were filled. In the 2016 general election, it transferred to the candidate who was last person standing. In the 2019 bye-election, it transferred on count 5 to the elected TD.
On that basis, Gino Kenny should be worried tomorrow.
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“Paddy Power has predicted that Fine Gael will drop 15 seats in the General Election, falling to 34 from 2016s 49.
Fianna Fail are expected to be the biggest winners with 59 seats; a 14 seat increase on the last election.
Sinn Fein are expected to gain seven seats to bring them to a total of 30, while the Green Party are anticipated to gain seven to bring them to nine seats…..
Sinn Fein continues to struggle against some troublesome undercurrents.”
https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/politics/irelands-general-election-odds-paddy-21446287
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Dublin Fingal
1. I4C
2. PBPA
3. SDs
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Meath East: (No SD candidate) WP, SF, Gr, Lab in that order then in no particular order until FG, FG, FF, Renua, Aontu
Get Outlook for Android ________________________________
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