5 years

Some interesting discussion on the site the last few days about the longevity of the government (and good to see some familiars names on the thread, always welcome!). I’m in two minds as to the potential lifespan of this crew. Tim Bale in the IT argued that it was likely to ‘last longer than sceptics predict’:

Although, historically, Western Europe’s minimal-winning coalitions tend not to last quite as long as its (rather more unusual) single-party majority governments, the difference is small: between 1945 and 2010 the average life of a single-party majority government was just over 1,000 days; but it was still more than 900 for minimal-winning affairs (compared with just over 500 for minority administrations). Anyone banking on GroKo-plus [Grand Coalition] imminent collapse, then, might not want to hold their breath.

Still, that’s just about three years or so. So not perhaps as long as those involved might wish. The very novelty of the arrangements may bring instability too. And they are novel. With two of the parties more or less the same size seat wide and sharing the role of Taoiseach what pressures will they be under? And what of polling throughout? What happens if one or other party is seen to be flagging, or as good/bad leaping ahead? I’ve mentioned before the issue of that role of Taoiseach. Will incumbency be a good or a bad thing, and will one or other party seek to capitalise on those differing dynamics? What of the GP who are under different pressures again.

What strikes me is how many questions there are about all this and – naturally, at this point, precious few answers. All will come clear as the days and weeks and months pass. But for now it’s oddly open. Small wonder so many different views on how matters will progress, or not.