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5 years July 14, 2020

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Some interesting discussion on the site the last few days about the longevity of the government (and good to see some familiars names on the thread, always welcome!). I’m in two minds as to the potential lifespan of this crew. Tim Bale in the IT argued that it was likely to ‘last longer than sceptics predict’:

Although, historically, Western Europe’s minimal-winning coalitions tend not to last quite as long as its (rather more unusual) single-party majority governments, the difference is small: between 1945 and 2010 the average life of a single-party majority government was just over 1,000 days; but it was still more than 900 for minimal-winning affairs (compared with just over 500 for minority administrations). Anyone banking on GroKo-plus [Grand Coalition] imminent collapse, then, might not want to hold their breath.

Still, that’s just about three years or so. So not perhaps as long as those involved might wish. The very novelty of the arrangements may bring instability too. And they are novel. With two of the parties more or less the same size seat wide and sharing the role of Taoiseach what pressures will they be under? And what of polling throughout? What happens if one or other party is seen to be flagging, or as good/bad leaping ahead? I’ve mentioned before the issue of that role of Taoiseach. Will incumbency be a good or a bad thing, and will one or other party seek to capitalise on those differing dynamics? What of the GP who are under different pressures again.

What strikes me is how many questions there are about all this and – naturally, at this point, precious few answers. All will come clear as the days and weeks and months pass. But for now it’s oddly open. Small wonder so many different views on how matters will progress, or not.

Comments»

1. sonofstan - July 14, 2020

What does anyone think about veteran socialist Bertie Ahern’s prediction that FG and FF will eventually merge?

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CL - July 14, 2020

Ideologically it happened long ago.
So an organizational unification would hardly matter?
Business jargon is appropriate when dealing with FFG -representatives of the propertied class.
Separate brands have, historically, allowed them to maximize electoral returns. But when the brands have become indistinguishable a merger and monopolization of the centre-right market, rather than a phony duopoly, may better serve the class interests they represent, and may help counter the threat of Sinn Fein to the status quo political and economic power structure.

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2. tomasoflatharta - July 14, 2020

Exactly Right – from Paul Murphy TD :

“The verdict in the Apple Tax case is due tomorrow. The Irish government has already spent millions trying to NOT get this money from Apple. They shouldn’t waste any more money fighting for the billionaire’s right to dodge taxes. Green TDs shouldn’t just ‘query’ this – they should draw a line in the sand. This is €14.6bn that could be used on a Green New Deal to rebuild the economy with socialist policies.”

“The verdict in the Apple Tax case is due tomorrow. The Irish government has already spent millions trying to NOT get this money from Apple. They shouldn’t waste any more money fighting for the billionaire’s right to dodge taxes. Green TDs shouldn’t just ‘query’ this – they should draw a line in the sand. This is €14.6bn that could be used on a Green New Deal to rebuild the economy with socialist policies.”

It should be noted that Catherine Martin TD, seeking the leadership of the Green Party, is on the record saying that female Green Party Oireachtas members (TD’s and Senators) should have got more slurps from the ministerial piggies’ trough. This works out as a nod and a wink to Ms Hourigan that promotion is possible. Careerist feminism in action. https://tomasoflatharta.wordpress.com/2020/07/14/e14-6-billion-tax-income-courtesy-of-apple-mega-corporation-could-be-used-for-green-new-deal-green-party-finance-spokesperson-neasa-hourigan-td-dithers/

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3. tafkaGW - July 14, 2020

My instinct is that they will be endogenously stable – i.e. there’ll be little internal conflict. The Greens have basically bought into putting a lick of sickly green paint on whatever Fx decides.

But the exogenous destabilisation factors are massive: Covid19 and the economic bust, not to mention Brexit. Who knows where we’ll be in a years time.

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