That latest poll October 25, 2021
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.trackback
Thanks to Paul Culloty for posting up the latest SBP/REDC poll figures in comments. The figures?
As usual this poll fits into broad bands of support (though with one distinction that we’ll get to). Sinn Féin doing somewhat better even than usual, up at 33%. The SDs and Labour a little higher too. GP, in or around its usual. PBP/S a little better too. Aontú likewise. Independents and Others at their near customary 10%. But the big divergence is Fianna Fáil who are polling considerably less than in other polls (only the Irish Mail on Sunday comes close with them at 16%). In other polls they’re closer to 20%. It’s quite a discrepancy and it would be useful to know what is the polling approach behind it. The point being that this is a constant source of instability to that party because whatever the polling approach it must reflect something, some fragility to that party’s vote. Which is all the more strange given Fianna Fáil is the party whose leader is An Taoiseach. That leader must hope that SBP/REDC is less accurate than other polls.
Interesting response from former FFer Derek Mooney (and thanks to JH for the link) who noted:
The Cedar Lounge Revolution 
FF are in fantasy mode if they think a different leader is going to bounce that number up.
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Is MM and his brand of ‘FG lite’ killing the enthusiasm among their traditional voting base? Yes. So yeah, there will be some upward tick, however slight.
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So what sort of coalition could SF build without FF, if any?
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The only parties you’d unequivocally think might back them would be the SDs and Sol-PBP, certainly seems unlikely that the current Labour and Green leaderships would support such a coalition, similarly with Aontú (although improbable that they’d add anyone else to Tóibín).
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I know it’s an outside shout at this moment in time but, with the sniff of a Cabinet seat (or two), might realpolitik force ambitious or aspiring Labour leadership figures to rethink their hostility to certain parties and purely ‘for the good of the nation’, of course.
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Quite possible.
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I think Aontu vs SD support would be completely mutually exclusive
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Very difficult to see them entering government together.
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I don’t see anyone wanting Aontú in any government permutation as you’d be a hostage to their doctrinaire religious policies.
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Seat projections from the Foggy Jew – the Greens tip the balance between FF-FG and the left parties:
https://twitter.com/HMcEvansoneya/status/1452646170338148361
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Ah very handy !
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if we get that type of outcome at the next election SF will have to go into coalition with either FF or FG.
Otherwise they will go into coalition together with a significant other and Ireland will be back with the same govt she has today
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Only thing with a result like that is that Ryan might well be out, and a new leader/reduced party may not be quite as willing to be the coalition stooge next time.
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It’d be a bad blow to the GP, without question. I guess some would say that at least they’d return with seats.
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I wonder if an FF Minister attending the event in Armagh was the final straw for some FF supporters. Being a Republican Party and Irish Unity is important among elements of their support. Simply put it was the acceptance of Partition that led to the Civil War and subsequent founding of Fianna Fáil. So opposition to Partition, to many, is at the core of the Parties ethos. No matter what various commentators say the recent Armagh event was seen as a Celebration of Partition.
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Has to have some effect but that they don’t realise that is mighty odd.
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