And it’s on! That British general election May 22, 2024
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.trackback
Announced today, and set for July 4th.
The only real surprise is that Tory Prime Minister Sunak has waited this long with a government visibly bleeding authority, though arguably that’s been the case almost since its election.
‘Change’ is the Labour watchword. Hardly necessary to suggest that what they offer is thin political gruel. And already Sunak is making play with the idea they can’t be trusted. Oh, they can be trusted alright: trusted to offer the most anodyne alternative possible to the Tories. That said, the Tories cannot continue in power on the path of destruction they set out upon in 2010. So, a moment where the need for a change in power is absolutely vital, even knowing that what is there is profoundly insufficient to the challenges facing British society and its peoples.
A lot is about to happen. Labour is about 20 points ahead of the Tories. Will that tighten as the election day approaches? How will matters go in Scotland and Wales? Where now for the SNP? What about the right and hard right? Where will the Tories be in six or seven weeks’ time. And Reform? What about the left, both within the LP and outside it?
This from Hope Not Hate is thought-provoking (thanks to a friend of the CLR for that):
Rishi Sunak just announced that he is calling a General Election for 4th July. Since the last general election, we’ve witnessed a worrying increase in hate. Let’s do what we can to stop it.
We have big plans to campaign against any candidates who cross our Red Lines, including the traditional far right, antisemitic conspiracy theorists, Islamophobic hatemongers and the Radical Right. Candidates like Lee Anderson, Laurence Fox, George Galloway, Jonathan Gullis and Paul Golding will be on our watch list.
We need immediate funds to cover leaflets, travel, and adverts – every resource necessary to counter hate in this critical election.
We can’t let this opportunity pass us by. Chip in now.
The Cedar Lounge Revolution 
Feel terribly sorry for voters over there.
FPTP is such an awful system. Tories are awful. Labour under Starmer awful. LibDems cat.
Unless you live in a place where there is a prospect of somebody decent being elected , the choice must be grim.
LikeLiked by 2 people
Yeah, especially if you’re used to having a proper choice. There’s always been a candidate I actively wanted to vote for in Dublin, and often one with a chance.
With Labour… there are decent individuals: of the five Leeds city MPs, two are decent enough, one is Richard Burgon, and I would be enthused if I lived in his constituency and the other two are Hilary Benn and Rachel Reeves.
Bit of a constituency redraw means that I’m now in Leeds Central and Headingley which Alex Sobel (once Leeds NW) will hold comfortably, which means I can ‘waste’ my vote with no fear of a Tory getting in. The new Leeds NW is the rest of the old NW + more rural bits around Otley and should be a Labour ‘gain’ as Pudsey (now divided between NW and W) was Tory.
LikeLiked by 2 people
Potentially a rather unique electoral anomaly for Michelle Gildernew – if she becomes an MEP on June 7th, it’d presumably be too late for SF to select an alternative Westminster candidate, so she’ll have to run herself in order to resign and trigger a by-election!
LikeLiked by 2 people
Now that the UK is outside the EU, is there a bar on MEPs sitting in the House of Commons as well?
LikeLike
I mean, of course, being elected to the House of Commons. I know she won’t be sitting.
LikeLiked by 1 person
I can’t wait for Starmer’s minions to knock on my door to tell them that I would never vote for a party led by a spineless careerist who declared his support for the deliberate genocidal targeting millions of Palestinian civilians. 🇵🇸
Tories don’t even bother round here. Only had Tory canvasser knock on my door once since I moved into my current home in Glasgow, 16 years ago.
LikeLiked by 2 people
‘A lot is about to happen. Labour is about 20 percent ahead of the Tories. Will that tighten as the election day approaches?’
You know, I would normally expect it to tighten, but its really hard to see any support moving towards the Tories in this campaign. They are such a shambolic mess: the extreme right is so critical of Sunak that at times they seem to be campaigning for Reform UK, whereas the more traditional Tories are unable to defend all that has been done in their name over the last 14 years. I can actually see the Tory support shrinking during this campaign.
But what of Labour? They’ll surely come back with a decent majority – but that very assumption allows disillusioned LP voters all around the country to vote Green, LP or others. So they might underperform on the day.
The SNP would normally be in a good position to fight for a hung parliament – but are they in any shape to fight for anything right now?
LikeLiked by 2 people
Westminster elections give disaffected and disillusioned SNP supporters the opportunity to send a message by voting Labour or staying at home.
It won’t matter much what shade of Scottish MPs are sent to the House of Commons in London, where the far larger number of English MPs dominate.
LikeLiked by 2 people
heard some Scots were advocating writing “End the Union” on their ballot papers
LikeLiked by 2 people
Not enough ‘End the Union’ spoiled ballots to make an impact, I’d guess, remembering that there will still be many independence supporters continuing to vote for the SNP, Scottish Greens, SSP and Alba (assuming they all stand).
LikeLiked by 2 people
Scottish greens have lost a lot of support because of the Gender recognition Act, the hate speech act etc
LikeLike
SNP might not be in great shape organisationally or in terms of image but they do have an asset in the SNP leader at Westminster.
Stephen Flynn MP is a more capable and personable performer than any of his rivals leading the Westminster parties, acknowledged even by the England-centric media as an effective communicator.
LikeLiked by 1 person
I think it will tighten.
Remember the UK GE before last? When the Tories were supposed to walk in with a sound majority because Corbyn was deemed so ‘unelectable’ by the MSM and then when the results started to come it, Labour did far better than expected and denied the Tories an overall majority.
I predict it will go the opposite way this time. Over the course of the campaign it will become clearer to people that a vote for Starmer’s Labour is a vote for little or no change. And the Tories will end up doing a lot better than expected because people will decide that if they’re going to end up with a tory government anyway, they might as well vote Tory.
LikeLike
never see a Tory round here either. They could be pushed into 4th.
LikeLike
Transform running three candidates (so far)
Rachel Maughan will be standing in Bishop Auckland. She says:
“I was born and raised in the constituency and I’ve raised my kids here too. I’m running because I’m tired of feeling I need to choose between Labour and the Conservatives, only to end up with someone who chose politics as a lucrative career. I’m ready to fight to make things better.”
Brian Agar will be standing in Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor. He says:
“I left Labour when they started to sound Tory. Now, four years later we have Tories crossing the floor to join Labour, proving the point beyond doubt. It’s time to get our country working for the people who really make the difference, the workers. To build a society where everyone is a valued member.”
These are neighbouring constituencies in the North East and it is anticipated that the campaign teams will work together closely to raise Transform’s profile and offer voters there a real alternative to the establishment parties.
Sam Gorst will contest Liverpool Garston for Liverpool Community Independents, a constituent party of Transform.
And supporting Andrew Feinstein running in Holborn St. Pancras against Starmer and Pamela Ftizpatrick in Harrow.
LikeLiked by 1 person
don’t know anything about these other candidates except for Feinstein. I would certainly vote for him rather than Starmer if I resided in the constituency. What a turn-up for the books if he got elected and the labour leader didn’t!
LikeLiked by 1 person
What about the north?
What are the close contests there? Where could seats change from unionist to nationalist and vice versa? Or to Alliance?
LikeLike
seeing unionists saying FST should be close given the uncertainty around who the SF candidate will be (see above) but probably won’t be. South Belfast presumably?
LikeLike
The GE’s a week before the climax of the North’s Annual Anti-Catholic Anti-Irish hate fest (11th Night, 12th), so maybe people will not have left yet for their “holidays” and will still be around to vote.There could well be a decent enough turnout.
Sir Jeff is standing down. The GE is 1 day after his next court appearance on 3rd july, so no good vibes for the DUP.
The UUP is on a downward slide . Why vote for them when you can get the “real thing” with the DUP and the TUV.
Predict up to 4/8 Unionist losses (2 are I think certain) -gains for Alliance and SF, SDLP is going nowhere except South Belfast
Am prepared to be completely wrong in my prediction!!!Ready to admit my mistakes!
LikeLiked by 1 person
PS Prediction depends on nationalist/republican voters turning out en masse!
LikeLike
Janey. 8 unionist losses? Would they have any seats left at all?
Steady on there, benm.
LikeLike
A lot of the DUP results will depend on the TUV and if they stand in the likes of East Belfast, South Antrim, Strangford etc . Assuming there’s enough Unionist voters that think the DUP have sold them out with the Sea Border the DUP could end up on a bad day losing 5 or 6 seats.
LikeLiked by 2 people
There are also some Boundary changes which may cause issues for the DUP in East Belfast and Lagan Valley.
LikeLiked by 1 person
No, I meant 4 of the 8 seats they currently hold. Not 4-8 seats. sorry for the misunderstanding
LikeLiked by 1 person
Suggestion in the Belfast Telegraph that the DUP could lose Lagan Valley, once ‘as safe for unionism as West Belfast for Nationalism’
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/columnists/sam-mcbride/dup-shouldnt-lose-lagan-valley-but-it-is-a-measure-of-unionisms-decline-that-it-is-even-at-risk/a1801555877.html
Paywalled, but the subhead gives the sense of it
LikeLike
Paywall bypassed.
https://archive.ph/5NdfV
LikeLike
LikeLike
https://anticapitalistresistance.org/general-election-2024-end-the-tyranny-of-conservative-rule/
LikeLike
Claire Hanna’s people straight out of the box – already this morning her posters are up in the Stranmillis area of S Belfast
LikeLiked by 3 people
LikeLiked by 1 person
Sweet mother of the divine Cedar Lounge, Liz Truss has announced that she is standing again.
LikeLike
Just waiting for a Lord Lettucehead to annouce he’s standing against her
LikeLiked by 1 person
Best news of the day (so far) after Corbyn saying he’ll stand.
Truss will provide some Pythonesque entertainment in all the dreary, choreographed campaigning.
LikeLike
And so, in a campaign already looking shipwrecked Sunak decides to let the headlines write themselves and visit the Titanic quarter.
LikeLiked by 2 people
You couldn’t make it up. And screwed it up with the media too. Jesus these guys are inept. He’s meant to be the last smart one in the Tories but sheesh… if he is what they says about them…
LikeLike
Michael Gove depriving us of the pleasure of him losing his seat.
LikeLike
😦
LikeLike
As I said above, I can really see this getting even worse for the Tories. After yesterday’s visit to the Titanic museum, today we read about Sunak taking a day off!
The 1997 Tories seemed tired and accepting of their inevitable defeat – but they didn’t seem to be actively encouraging it! If there were any wise heads left in the party, they would be already trying to shore up their losses and planning for some sort of recovery over the next ten years.
Instead – rather than rearranging the deck chairs on this sinking ship, they seem to be deep underwater, blowing holes in the hull.
LikeLike
If I had any enthusiasm for Starmer et al, I’d fear that I’m just seeing what I want to see. But I don’t want to see this. The absolute collapse of the Tories, only to see them replaced with a party that seems determined to change nothing.
It really is a great opportunity for the Greens, Lib-dems and all of the smaller parties to push the argument for a hung parliament. To hold Labour to account – and maybe force them to do something.
As is so often the case, the interesting election is already the next one – and the UK really needs some meaningful, powerful opposition. Wouldn’t it be great if that was effectively a coalition of the smaller parties (whatever the seating arrangements might be in the House)?
LikeLike
It’ll be interesting to see if the campaign Owen Jones has been promoting to target alternatives to Labour where that is feasible will succeed.
It’s a campaign tactic we’re familiar with but writ large on a massive scale and with an voting population rarely asked to vote tactically.
LikeLiked by 1 person
One scenario that is no longer impossible to imagines is that a tory collapse could create a path to some form of PR.
The Tories obviously protected FPTP up to now because for decades (or centuries), its been delivering safe Tory majorities. But is that any longer true? Since the 90s they have either been riven with infighting or kept out of power by extreme right rivals. Even the Cameron win was undermined and ultimately dismantled due to internal splits.
Those who depend on the Conservatives to protect capital and wealth must be shaking their heads in despair at the mess they have created.
With PR there would always be room for a solidly conservative party, who could coalesce with the extremists on occasion without being consumed by them.
They only have to look slightly west to see that they have little to fear.
LikeLike
Indeed. Labour are pretty certain to win, but if their behaviour costs them nothing, they are going to be even worse than we imagine.
LikeLiked by 1 person
He’s taking a day off? I mean there’s no end to just how inept he is? Thought to +1 your lack of enthusiasm for the alternative. I know that it will make a difference on the ground (to some degree) but it’s such an impoverished, minimalist, sort of alternative that winning feels like losing.
LikeLiked by 1 person
I saw that it’s not quite a day off, though the reason for not being out front campaigning does prove his ineptness: he’s meeting advisers to work on the campaign plan.
LikeLiked by 2 people
FPTP won’t be changed by Labour or the Tories.
Self-interest drives the Tories and Labour so they can keep power to themselves with occasionally token coalition participation by smaller parties only when necessary.
LikeLiked by 1 person
I know that has been the logic for years, Wes. But can any of the more sober characters on the right of British politics look at this as a healthy scenario, or even one that is likely to swing back their way in the near future?
Manufacturing industry, the financial sector and agriculture (all of which are controlled by traditional Tory types) have all been damaged, and real wealth has been lost. If the extremists behind Brexit and related craziness are driven from the party, they will keep it out of power by splitting the vote. If they are kept within the party, they will continue to wreak havoc, pushing self-destructive nonsense and blocking anything sensible.
For a time – shamefully – the LP can be trusted to protect their interests. But that is hardly a satisfactory situation to the bastions of wealth-management.
I would bet that somebody like, say, Cameron or May, would feel very differently about PR today than they would have done 10 years ago.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Neither the Tories nor Labour are vaguely interested in getting rid of FPTP. It keeps the parties together and makes it nigh on impossible for other parties to grow.
If there was PR, do you think the Tories wouldn’t have split or Labour likewise.
LikeLiked by 2 people
One spin when the Tories lose all those seats will be that the late decisions of the likes of Gove and Leadsome meant the candidates in those constituencies didn’t have enough time to prepare properly.
LikeLiked by 2 people
I was hearing on LBC radio that Sunak had told only a couple of dozen close colleagues about the early election call, wrong footing even Conservative Central Office who hadn’t got all the replacement candidates in place.
LikeLiked by 1 person
LikeLiked by 2 people
I see Sunaks big idea is Mandatory National Service for 18 year olds!
Lunacy.
LikeLiked by 2 people
The laziness of reporters in not pressing Sunak on (a) Does his National Service military option apply to North of Ireland; and (b) Will he be giving young men during a knife crime crisis access to firearms training?
LikeLiked by 1 person
Is it laziness or a lack of knowledge? The announcement was timed to meet media deadlines for Sunday papers but without time to get substantive voters against the proposal. National Service ended in 1963, and those who went through it are now retired, so the ability to critique it properly in a few hours, late at night, are limited
LikeLiked by 2 people
voters -> voices
LikeLiked by 1 person
Basic critical faculties should raise these questions for any ‘professional’ in the media putting the TV and radio packages together.
No need for deep research – Glasgow comedian Kevin Bridges has done that for them years ago on the previously floated idea of National Service in an era of knife crime. 😉
LikeLiked by 1 person
Exactly my first thought 🙂
LikeLiked by 1 person
Complete insanity isn’t it?
LikeLiked by 1 person
Yes, apparently it’s to attract Reform UK voters
LikeLike
I’m sure they haven’t thought it through, but I can see a rush of new Irish citizens, and not just from NI – I assume they can’t conscript ‘foreigners’?
LikeLike
What would happen if a ‘CLR type’ in Britain due for National Service chose to do it in the military or the police?
I wouldn’t have minded being allowed roam army bases, Military Intelligence or anywhere near a Police National Computer. 😜
LikeLiked by 2 people
I guess the same problem arose in the Fifties. I suppose they could be sent to defend Rockall or something. The French had a system where objectors could do a “civilian” service for a longer period.
LikeLiked by 1 person
standard warning with passports, visas and citizenship applications: dual citizens get no protection from being a citizen of one country while they are in the other country.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Irish men ordinarily resident in Great Britain were liable for call up the last time there was national service.
Repeal the Ireland Act 1949?
LikeLiked by 2 people
Someone I know with dual UK/ Finnish citizenship had the option not to do national service in Finland – but chose to anyway.
LikeLiked by 2 people
Ah you’d look well in uniform, Michael.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Sean Garland didn’t wait to be called up. He volunteered.
LikeLiked by 1 person
@banjo I am 5’8 3/4″ and I intend to make sure that is noted if there is a 5’9″ height requirement for front line service.
LikeLiked by 2 people
5’9” requirment. Not ideal for trench warfare.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Irish men ordinarily resident in Great Britain were liable for call up the last time there was national service.
My dad got call up papers when he was living in England in the late 50s. He wasn’t interested in fighting for Queen and Empire so he returned to Dublin and then moved back to England to a different address. I think it was during the Mau Mau war in Kenya, or some other independence war at least. That’s as I remember the story he told. I must ask him again. I think it might have even happened a second time. I presume it was just phased out and he got off the hook that way in the end.
Speaking of conscription, in Ukraine it seems that men up to the age of 60 can be conscripted. 60! I’ll be exiting that cohort in a few weeks time myself but hard to believe that codgers of my age would be considered useful in a war. Maybe driving a truck, or cooking, or something like that. But in a frontline situation?? Jaysus.
There’s a graphic on the demographics of the Ukrainian population on this wiki page that might explain that desperation. Basically there’s a deficit of men of fighting age in Ukraine due to population decline in the preceding decades.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mobilization_in_Ukraine
LikeLiked by 1 person
I’m a year behind you but I wouldn’t want you to be in a similar situation either. Wonder how effective they’d be. That said read some stuff about Russias demographics which suggests they’ve problems too demographically, and Putin can’t do a full mobilisation for fear of a backlash which leaves matters more finely balanced. But 60. Jaysus indeed.
LikeLiked by 1 person
@alanmyler When my father was working sites in London in the early fifties, Irishmen had three sets of National Insurance documents: the one they were using, the fallback in case they were called up under the name on the first set, and the spare in case they had switched to the fallback.
LikeLiked by 2 people
Yes, apparently it’s to attract Reform UK voters
I think you mean ‘white boomers’
LikeLiked by 1 person
Sunday was spent taking about the Tories and their first policy idea.
We may throw our eyes to heaven at it, but the Tories set the agenda.
LikeLike
LikeLike
Starmer is a socialist, just like Bertie
Keir Starmer has said he would call himself as socialist – although when asked to define socialism, he just said it was about putting the country first.
In his interview with Chris Mason for the BBC, asked if he would call himself a socialist Starmer replied:
Asked how he would describe his socialism, he replied:
Normally socialism is defined in terms of having some commitment to public ownership – or at the very least the collective provision of public services.
LikeLiked by 3 people
I do not think the word means what Starmer thinks it means. And that’s the kindest interpretation.
LikeLiked by 1 person
No I don’t think so either and I’ve read a couple of books on the subject. I could send him a reading list?
LikeLiked by 3 people
🙂
LikeLike
Is this a weird generational thing or a cultural shift that people just don’t care about lying about definitions etc. I mean we all know that’s not what socialism means and presumably he goes but he just doesn’t care – it’s bizarre.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Time for another stab at a Grundrisse reading group SoS?
LikeLiked by 1 person
What year did Starmer join the BLP? I’ve heard 2015 but that can’t be right, surely?
…and I’ve just learned that Keith’s middle name is ‘Rodney’
LikeLike
He was DPP until 2013 so he certainly couldn’t have been active politically before then.
LikeLike
Yep, mid 2010s.
LikeLike
he was once quite clear about it:
https://www.thesocialreview.co.uk/2020/05/28/starmers-socialist-alternatives/
LikeLike
It’s quite sad to think that he once held those views. And again, his dissembling over the meaning of socialism is telling.
LikeLike
Conscription in the 50s
https://www.oireachtas.ie/ga/debates/debate/dail/1953-04-30/10/
LikeLiked by 2 people
meanwhile, Mad Steve Baker, once my MP, has said that Sunak sprang the National Service idea on the party without consultation – and did so from a beach in Greece, having declined to cancel his holiday. Labour will probably take Wycombe, but I can’t deny I’m warming to him. He seems to have woken up a bit in NI.
LikeLiked by 2 people
Naomi Long going up against Gavin Robinson in East Belfast. Another possible DUP loss?
LikeLike
LikeLiked by 1 person