18 months at the top

That’s how long Rishi Sunak has been leader of the Tory party. I was thinking that (at best) Simon Harris has another ten months as leader of Fine Gael ahead of the next election. Of course, Sunak called an election yesterday (Wednesday), so his tenure is probably very limited indeed.

Now consider how much change has Sunak made? On one level give him his dues. The Windsor Framework pacified matters in relation to Brexit and Northern Ireland, though teething troubles remain, as with the latest concerns over asylum seekers and the North. Beyond that, can you think of one major policy or approach that he has put his stamp on for Britain?

Okay, he’s calmed matters, but those polls continue to decline for the Tories. He talked up the idea yesterday that Labour was taking victory for granted. Hollow laughs all around. Labour is in hyper-fearful mode. In truth, it’s not clear how any politician could reverse the trend apparent in the polls. And perhaps calm is an under appreciated virtue. At least it allows something approaching normal political activity to emerge after the ferment and chaos of the past decade. 

Still, it also points to how difficult it is for a leader – even one gifted a couple of years ahead of an election – to make the political weather. Wonder if Harris is taking note. Wonder does this change the calculations in this state?