Dublin constituency in European elections May 23, 2024
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.trackback
Well, here’s RTÉ’s overview of the European elections in the Dublin Constituency. Had to smile at the prediction.
It’s likely that the three big parties; Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin, will each win a seat.
Candidates such as Green Party MEP Ciarán Cuffe, Independent4Change MEP Clare Daly and Independent Ireland’s Niall Boylan are also in contention.
However, other candidates should not be discounted.
That’s not very helpful.
The Cedar Lounge Revolution 
Very hard to call the last seat. I doubt that Cuffe will get it, and Daly too has probably had her time. Boylan probably has the edge over the cavalcade of other candidates out of sheer name recognition.
Interesting that the article linked claims the left will suffer from vote dilution because of so many candidates, when the far-right probably has more.
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I wonder is it that the far right is functioning at a much much lower level so even if they’ve more they’re really not at the races whereas, loosely defined, the left – LP, SD, GP, PBP, Ogle, Daly etc – would have more votes but split in such a way that they can’t get someone across the finishing line?
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I doubt that we have reliable information from the Irish Times opinion poll. These constituency polls have a bad record compared with statewide surveys, largely because the sample size is smaller, causing a bigger margin of error. If a polling organization conducts a Dublin constituency survey with a bigger sample, we will all be on former ground.
For what it’s worth, the IT poll means Andrews, Boylan, and Doherty will win a seat, with Ó Ríordáin (Labour) a clear favourite for the last seat (which is a significant surprise).
The consolation is that the gaggle of far-right mini-fuhrers are nowhere in the survey! Let’s hope that bit of information is accurate! John Meehan
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I had heard a few weeks back that AOR had been doing better than expected on the ground and in some party polling, but this from LP sources so I discounted them 🙂
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Typo above – should be “firmer ground” – apologies. After the Euro and local elections we can look at the scores of Labour and the Social Democrats. Politically, in my opinion they are peas in a pod : socially left-liberal with an open door to coalition with the right (Achilles heel). It would be a game-changer if either of these adopted the much firmer anti-coalition policy of the PBP (which I endorse 100 per cent). John Meehan
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I wouldn’t write off Clare Daly, who has had a higher profile than most MEPs. She had 11.6 per cent first preferences last time and even if she was to drop a few points (in a context of more candidates), she will attract preferences across the board
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I wouldn’t write her off either, much as I’d like to. Somehow though, I’m with the IT poll and those Labour heads who are saying Ó Ríordáin is doing surprisingly well. That’s my gut too.
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Norman Finkelstein’s view: https://www.facebook.com/ClareDalyMEP/videos/1135915344220937
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Yes, she sure does have a high profile and I hope people remember her various highlights, including using the Dail to promote anti-vaxxer lies, working with a far right Romanian MEP, hobnobbing with sectarian militia in Iraq and denying the genocidal campaign against the Uighur people etc etc.
Not that losing her seat would matter much, she’s sure to get a job with RT or some other such outfit.
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Yes, she sure does have a high profile and I hope people remember her various highlights, including using the Dail to promote anti-vaxxer lies, working with a far right Romanian MEP, hobnobbing with sectarian militia in Iraq and denying the genocidal campaign against the Uighur people etc etc.
I think there’s something about being made into a lone figurehead on an issue that can drive people into quackery. Just thinking of Patricia McKenna, who the following years have proven exactly right on the political conspiracy to sleepwalk us into NATO, but whose banishment to the other fringes by even her own party (and the Greens have just openly abandoned neutrality) eventually led her into nuts stuff like anti-chlorination.
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I agree. As someone who was once an independent councillor I can attest to the difficulties of maintaining a consistent and principled position in the absence of the constant discussion, give and take, of being part of a party.
im not saying there’s an inevitable slide into quackery and I’m certainly not making any excuses for Daly but I think it’s a factor in her political degeneration.
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I do wonder if there is a ‘Shy Tory’ thing in the polls regarding the Far Right. It’s not something that has happened since polling began here.
As for calling it, you’d have to assume Lynn Boylan, Andrews and Doherty. I have a suspicion Niall Boylan will be in the mix.
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I’ve been thinking about the referendums, and how the end result went far beyond the polling. Multiparty elections are a different thing of course, but there could be a quiet vote there for unpleasant candidates.
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I think two groups affect the usefulness of the polls. One is the large number of undecideds, though that is not a novelty for pollsters. The other is the non-voters who are motivated to turn out. That second group got Gino Kenny elected the first time he took a council seat, when he wasn’t rated as taking a seat by because he was from a fringe party and from an area with low turnout.
In his case the change in turnout was geographical: North Clondalkin was known to be an area with a very low turnout for years.
(I was a poll clerk once, many years ago, and I remember thinking that we had been given fewer ballot papers than at my last two stations in other parts of Clondalkin.)
I don’t have the figures, but I think turnout in Gino’s home base was in the 30%s compared to in the 60%s in more affluent parts of Clondalkin. When he stood, the turnout in his patch of North Clondalkin shot up, enough to get him the seat.
This time, the possibility of non-voters showing up isn’t necessarily geographical. In my LEA, one of the far right candidates is in a well-off estate, where FG and the PDs always did well. But she will hope to get enough of the circa 30 of non-voters out to the polling station, alongside converting regular voters to get cause. (Though she suffers the problem of a divided far-right ticket – yeah!)
Polls measure changes in who you intend to vote for, not if you will switch from voting to staying at home, or vice versa.
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At least two leaflets being given out outside Croker yesterday. Daly and Niall Boylan.
Every chance Boylan will take Daly’s seat I’d say.
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There have always been two left/centre-left seats in the Dublin euro constituency. It would be odd if that dropped to one at this election (given the general drift to the left over the past decade), so I have a hunch that if Boylan does take a seat it will be at the expense of Andrews. FF polls ratings are way down. Why should he be an exception?
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This is not a reply to Vingtras. Just a statement.
I hate British imperialist foreign games.
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