Another poll!

The Business Post offers a new poll, in tandem with REDC. The headline figures?

SF 23 -4

FG 22 +2

IND 19 NC

FF 15+1

SD 5 -1

LP 4 +1

GP 4 +1

PBP 3 +1

AONTÚ 3 -1

Obvious thoughts, as the Business Post notes – Sinn Féin is now at a level not seen since before the last election. It’s lower than the last election. And its highest point in REDC polls was 36% in mid-2022. This must be very troubling for that party – though the example of 2019 does offer them considerable hope – since at the Local/European elections they fared worse then than at the subsequent General Election. And in truth Fine Gael shouldn’t be too ecstatic being only 2% above their 2020 GE level, though there’s some indication that Harris has helped their vote tick up (though note that all the movement above bar SF is within the MOE). Fianna Fáil by contrast should be deeply concerned. 15% is 7% below their 2020 level. It seems unlikely there’d be a heave against Martin, but then again three months ago who would have predicted the then Taoiseach would resign. As to the others. Far from stellar might be the kindest conclusion.

But Independents. Both recent polls suggest Independents have stalled, albeit a bit higher in this poll than the Irish Times one. Why could that be? Could it be that people are taking note of certain aspects of some independents and drawing conclusions? Notable is that ‘Other party’ is at 2%, which is No change as well.

Again, though, this is ahead of Local and European Elections. The General Election remains some way away. That will have dynamics all its own.