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We’ll talk about this later… Labour move ahead of Fianna Fáil in the latest Red C poll… May 1, 2010

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Irish Politics, The Left.
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Oh yes we will…

Details here.

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1. Tomboktu - May 1, 2010

Now, then, is Labour peaking or are we seeing a, um ‘paradigm shift’ (whatever that is)?

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2. EWI - May 1, 2010

And Nu Labour in the UK are in similar dire straits (I see that the Guardian has endorsed the Lib-Dems).

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sonofstan - May 1, 2010

Do newspaper declarations such as this have any influence? If you read the Guardian you’re probably not a Tory, but whichever of the other two you vote for, would your mind be changed by a leader in the paper?

I guess it might firm up some nervous switchers….

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EWI - May 1, 2010

Do newspaper declarations such as this have any influence? If you read the Guardian you’re probably not a Tory, but whichever of the other two you vote for, would your mind be changed by a leader in the paper?

My mind, no – but if I was wavering…?

I thought it more significant in terms of how Blairism has completely gutted the Labour Party into Tory-lite, such that when a real alternative to both seems to actually appear, it’s getting such endorsements and poll figures.

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3. irishelectionliterature - May 1, 2010

It’s the Mae Sexton factor. ….. she joins and Labour shoot up 7%.
There must be plenty more ex PDs available for hire. 🙂

on a serious note a great showing by Labour. Gilmores ‘Economic Treason’ accusation may have won a few extra voters. Also the longer the bank bailouts, NAMA and Anglo go on the better for Labour as they were the ones who voted against the various measures.

Labour are at 33% in Dublin, their strength may actually hinder the broader Left. The broader Left may get squeezed.
In PBP targets such as Dublin South Central and Dun Laoghaire Labour must surely be in with winning 2 seats in each.
The Socialist Party should win in Dublin West, but again Clare Daly could fall short as she will be battling it out with a second Labour candidate, Sargent, a second FGer and an FFer for the final two seats.

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roh - May 2, 2010

http://www.tribune.ie/article/2010/apr/11/putting-new-wind-in-the-sails-of-the-gilmore-gale/

‘The party will adopt a two candidate strategy in constituencies where they already have a TD.’
So presumably just the one in Dublin North?

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4. sonofstan - May 1, 2010

Labour are at 33% in Dublin,

Is that in this poll? they don’t appear to have released the regional breakdown yet…..if you know that, what are the standing for the other parties in Dublin?

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irishelectionliterature - May 1, 2010

I was looking around to see where I read the 33% and cant find it….

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5. DublinDilettante - May 1, 2010

I wouldn’t be too worried about that, IEL. The election could be two years away. There’ll be plenty of opportunity to expose what Labour stands for in left target seats once the campaign begins.

Anyway, the polls have been all over the place. I’m not sure Irish pollsters know what they’re doing.

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Tomboktu - May 3, 2010

“There’ll be plenty of opportunity to expose what Labour stands for”

I rather like Colum McCaffrey’s description of Labour as “the political wing of St. Vincent DePaul“.

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6. Garibaldy - May 1, 2010

As Pete Baker points out, and IEL hints, there’s a good chance some of Labour’s support has come from taking it off PSF, who are down four points. I see the Greens are up 1 too. How?

Red C Poll: Labour 7 points up, SF 4 points down

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DublinDilettante - May 1, 2010

I see the Greens are up 1 too. How?
Margin of error, I suspect…

The Greens have a solid 4-5% base of support from middle-class liberals. That’s not going anywhere. But they won’t be able to buy a transfer at the next election, which is why they’re so comprehensively fucked.

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7. dotski - May 1, 2010

“Labour are at 33% in Dublin”

they go just under 15% in 2007 in Dublin. A uniform swing would see them over 35% in there if on 24% nationally, which suggests that they are gaining in bigger measure outside the capital (previous polls suggested otherwise). it would be interesting to see where, but it may be that new recruits in Roscommon, Donegal and Mayo are bringing the general swing to Labour into areas where it was getting no purchase previously, due to lack of candidates.

Very bad news for FF – they were behind LP in MRBI polls, but had been blaming that on their methodology – to be behind in both puts them firmly in 3rd. Another poll like this from Red C (or LP pulling further away in MRBI) could see Cowen sent into his room with a bottle of whiskey and a revolver.

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sonofstan - May 2, 2010

they go just under 15% in 2007 in Dublin. A uniform swing would see them over 35% in there if on 24% nationally, which suggests that they are gaining in bigger measure outside the capital

Maybe because, although the collapse of FF is more marked in the capital, Lab also have competition to their left in Dublin?
So that, where there’s no SF TD or prospect of one, that vote is going to Labour, whereas where there is one – or the prospect – its sticking: and likewise where there’s an identifiable contender from the SP/PbP. Plus, much of that rump Green vote is in Dublin, voters from the sort of milieu that elsewhere will go Labour.

If the swing really is from SF, it does show that the idea that all the new Labour voters are public servants or their relatives and thus supposedly ‘middle-class’ may not be as solid as it looks – again, as IEL says, the tussle between Labour and those to their left in Dublin South Central, North, and DL will be interesting.

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8. irishelectionliterature - May 1, 2010

If Labour keep growing in the polls could we see Sinn Fein (asuming they win 7 or 8 seats) along with Lowry and another few of the Independents as a much more favourable coalition partner to Fine Gael than Labour.

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sonofstan - May 2, 2010

For that to be possible, FG would need to get 72-5 seats at least: requiring in turn something touching 40% of the vote – which they haven’t been in 5 points of in any RedC poll this Dail.

And where might that extra tranche come from? if FF have hit bedrock, then not there, and while they might pick up a few stray Greens, that’s not remotely enough. Which means they need to take votes off Labour, which means in turn, opening up a second front, something Varadkar and the like might enjoy, but that would run the danger of drying up transfers in both directions and gifting seats back to FF….

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WorldbyStorm - May 2, 2010

As well as the Independents holding on over 6%, their 2007 position at which they didn’t do hugely well in contrast with 2002.

Mind you, a second front may be more appealing to an FG which can’t dump Kenny this close in to an election, but who are also all too well aware that a stronger LP means more LP feet under the table at Cabinet. Not that necessarily would make that much difference in real terms.

IELB, do you think 7-8 is realistic for SF in terms of seats on the current figures. Their poll rating is now 1% less than 2007?

Mind you as noted above, we’re still so far out from an election that although the underlying trends seem to be solidifying, an LP that will garner at least 17% giving potentially 30 seats plus who knows how it will play out otherwise.

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9. DublinDilettante - May 2, 2010

Incidentally, if the left sorts itself out and mounts a united campaign, that could be good news for Labour. The liberal media, already hungry for regime change once FF sews up the public sector cuts, will swing behind Labour in a big way if there’s a serious left challenge. There were signs of this late last year when the SBP reassured its readers that Gilmore’s rich-must-pay-more pronouncements of the time were just populist posturing to prevent a flanking manoeuvre on his left (they were very taken with this stratagem.)

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10. CL - May 2, 2010

Sinn Fein is not seen as relevant in dealing with the catastrophe confronting the Irish people. S.F now has the same paltry 6% level of support as the Greens. This at a time when the Greens and their F.F. partners are imposing neo-liberal, IMF-style ‘austerity’ on the working class. And when the same parasites who caused and benefited from the bubble are now in charge of the NAMA bailout.
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/property-loan-link-for-senior-nama-official-2161867.html
Jack O’Connor’s May day speech makes clear that union leadership has been completely assimilated to the interests of the ruling oligarchy. As Labour prepares for coalition with F.G. can we expect anything different?

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que - May 3, 2010

“Sinn Fein is not seen as relevant in dealing with the catastrophe confronting the Irish people”

I regret that you may be right, or at least they have not yet managed to communicate their relevance to the people.

If the people consider them irrelevant then we must also say that the people find the Socialist party, SWP,PBP etc etc fairly irrelevant as well.

if we are to apply the same yard stick to all.

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que - May 3, 2010

crap result for SF by the way and Labour should be pleased as they can really build on a 3rd path approach.

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WorldbyStorm - May 3, 2010

It is disappointing for SF, and particularly so since – from my perspective at least – SF in the Dáil have provided an excellent critique of many of the events that we’ve seen in recent times. Still. That said any shift leftwards might be useful and I find it hard to believe that those who until recently would give SF No. 1s wouldn’t even if they’re giving the LP those 1’s instead not give SF high second third or fourth preferences which might be sufficient to assist more than one candidate, new or old getting in.

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11. DC - May 2, 2010

The SBP claims that Fianna Fail are polling “stronger among young people” (doesn’t mention how much stronger)-interesting none the less. JUst name recognition, or is the youth vote more neo-liberal? The latter wouldn’t surprise me, its easier to internalise the entrepreneurial propaganda if you hear it from a young age…

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WorldbyStorm - May 2, 2010

Yeah, that surprised me as well. It’s really frustrating not to get the detail of the Dublin polls from the SBP and IIRC RedC doesn’t put them up on their website subsequently. Without that all we get are hints from the media and bits and pieces from the parties who’re always far too interested in themselves and spinning whatever they can to their advantage.

To add to your thoughts, I’d imagine ‘there is no alternative’ plays particularly well if you’ve had no experience of even the idea of alternatives. I was reading in the papers today how even those under 35 have little memory of – say – Thatcher and that took me aback.

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sonofstan - May 2, 2010

Just on that – last night, when you posted this poll first, and knowing the SBP don’t stick the paper up on the site until Sunday evening, I went onto P.ie to see what they were saying. It’s kind of bizarre to come from here, where Jack O’Connor is a sell- out traitor to over there where he is – it would seem – a dangerous revolutionary: and to illustrate how much even the language of the left has slipped away from its moorings, people were referring the Gilmore, Rabbite and DeRossa as ‘former Trots’ …..and it was a fair while before anyone corrected them.

And whereas here even I wouldn’t refer to Labour as a socialist party without a lot of qualification, over there, they think Gilmore will be found out when his ‘dangerous socialist ideas’ are exposed in office. I certainly hope so….

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WorldbyStorm - May 3, 2010

Well, even allowing for what seems to have been a fairly rightward tilt of an already right of centre site in the past year or so (Lisbon didn’t help oddly enough) that’s very true. Again it reminds me of the person who said to me having been in the UK recently that given the media coverage its amazing that the UK LP is even as wishy washy left of centre as it is in the environment. So perhaps we’re missing the scale of Gilmore’s achievement to date.

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12. Tomboktu - May 2, 2010

Gilmore has been reported by RTÉ today as saying that the poll results now make an “unanswerable case” for the next leaders’ debate to be a three-way affair. Here, the third party has pushed up the rankings before the leaders’ debate, unlike the situation in Britain, where the debate seems to have been instrumental in moving Clegg and the Lib Dems up the rankings. That different sequencing will make the haggling interesting.

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WorldbyStorm - May 2, 2010

To be honest this is as good a time as any to make that case. There are, of course, counter arguments. If it were on numbers in the Oireachtas, hmmm… third largest party. Number of votes cast in 2007.

But if this were sustained I think it would be very difficult for RTÉ to back away.

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13. Leveller on the Liffey - May 3, 2010

Enda’s handlers can always just say ‘no’ and, given the British experience where the Tories have let Clegg slip in the side door, they’ll do everything they can to avoid a repetition here which would strengthen Gilmore’s case for a rotating Taoiseach, were he to do well.

Irish Times: “Parties reject RTÉ proposals for televised election debates”:

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2010/0503/1224269590724.html

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Tomboktu - May 3, 2010

“Enda’s handlers can always just say ‘no’ ”

In which case, it would be in Labour’s interest to make clear that Enda’s side was the one refusing the Irish people … etc.

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Leveller on the Liffey - May 3, 2010

Danger is that it could be seen as carping by Gilmore with his face pressed up against the RTÉ studio window but Labour’s poll surge now, way ahead of the debate, should strengthen his case.

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WorldbyStorm - May 3, 2010

There’s that of course. But Kenny strikes me as terribly flawed and Cowen as well in his way so it’s not as if it’s Gilmore desperately seeking a chance however small to shine. It’s more like the other two engaging to keep him out. I still would want a five party debate though.

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14. sonofstan - May 3, 2010

A debate between Enda and the Owl of the Remove on their own would be unwatchable though.

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WorldbyStorm - May 3, 2010

Fair point Leveller. I think that fear will be very very strong in their minds, but… as T notes that could be turned to the LPs advantage. Still, caution above all else, plenty of time yet before an election I’d think.

Owl of the Remove… I had to look that one up. Pretty apt, albeit it’s cruel and wrong.

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sonofstan - May 3, 2010

Showing my age probably – the Greyfriars books probably disappeared from school and public libraries just after I stopped reading them: shockingly elitist and racist of course, but possibly also ‘an immanent critique’ of privilege?

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Dr. X - May 3, 2010

The advenures of said Owl and his comrades did at least inspire one of Orwell’s finest essays, ‘Boys’ Weeklies’.

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WorldbyStorm - May 3, 2010

‘cruel and wrong’ was, needless to say, in invisible inverted comma’s.

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15. Dr. X - May 3, 2010

And here’s the aforementioned Orwell essay:

http://www.orwell.ru/library/essays/boys/english/e_boys

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