The latest polls – a quick thought…

It’s Saturday, so I’ll leave a more detailed analysis of the latest round of polls to be published tomorrow for later in the week.

However. However. I’ve noted from the start that I think a McGuinness win is somewhat unlikely, though the campaign itself might do him no harm. But the concentration in the media on him, while unsurprising, may be missing the point given how he will actually poll.

And the thought struck me reading the precis on RTÉ news, that in a way FG and others while correct in fearing the effect of a McGuinness campaign in terms of further strengthening Sinn Féin in the Republic may be missing a different and more pressing issue.

The Presidential contest also seems to be having an effect on party support, with the Sunday Business Post / Red C poll showing big increases for Sinn Féin and Independents.

Since the last such poll in May support for Fine Gael has dropped six points to 33%, Labour is down three to 16%, Fianna Fáil is down one to 15%, Sinn Féin gains four to 15% while Independents and others gain 8% to reach 21%.

Sinn Féin will more than likely do better than they are currently doing at the next election. But look at the figures for the Independents [and of course we mustn’t forget the ULA is in there too] and think forward three or four years. They provide an even more congenial place for voters disenchanted with the current government, and unlikely to want to gift FF either with a slight return or otherwise, to go.

And consider how high that Independent vote is going and how it is impacting on FG too.

President Norris, Independent President Norris.

And if FG should take note of that, and start to train their fire in that direction, well so indeed most likely will those who can actuate such an outcome.

Those nomination papers may well be signed sealed and delivered by Monday.

Addendum: Here’s an interesting graph from the Irish Times of polling prior to the Election this year. https://cedarlounge.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/itpollgo-copy.jpg

Look in particular at the Independents poll rating.