Dublin West…

There’s little to add to the analyses of the career of Brian Lenihan Jnr. His death was a tragedy for him and his family and friends. That career one which one suspects in decades to come will be viewed as being one of catastrophic misjudgement. But this isn’t the day to reflect upon that, and I’d argue that Garibaldy’s thoughts here strike the right note by positioning the man in a broader context.

That said this is a political site and it’s legitimate to work through the political ramifications even at this stage.

And the fallout of this is fascinating. None of the remaining 46 Dublin TDs represent Fianna Fáil. Bad news for that party, now diminished to the same number of TDs as the Independents in Dáil Éireann – 19 in total – at least until the byelection. These truly are strange times.

For Martin this must be a grim day, both personally and politically. Again it is the latter we should consider. No Fianna Fáil Dublin TD is an huge problem. Seeing the numbers of FF TDs dip sub-20 is almost beyond comprehension. I can’t quite believe it looking in from the outside, so being in on the inside I can barely imagine what it must be like.

Now, what of the by-election? I guess it’s possible that in this Independent time it is just about conceivable some celebrity Independent might stand. Whether they win would be quite another matter. The SP doesn’t seem to think the seat is there for the taking. Fianna Fáil might win a sympathy vote – but this close to the election? So on balance it looks likely that the seat will fall to the Coalition thereby depriving Fianna Fáil of its last remaining fastness in Dublin city. And this potentially could remain the status quo until the next election.

What then of a by-election win for Fine Gael? They currently have 76 TDs including the Ceann Comhairle. A win for them would push them up to 77 and just shy of 7 seats for an overall majority. And look here, even excluding Lowry there are seven Independent TDs who could – with a little effort – join them in a loose arrangement… Mattie McGrath, Stephen Donnelly, Shane Ross [natch], Ming, Healy-Rae, Fleming and Noel Grealish. Which would give them 84.

A deal with a soft left TD for the Ceann Comhairle’s position and hey presto, we’re in FG single party government territory.

Is it likely? No, not really. But it’s not unlikely either, at least as an hypothetical, and as a means of keeping Labour in line over the next while it’s probably no harm. There’s also the point that it offers FG a lifeline in extremis.

Of course, if Labour gets the seat it’s happy days for them. 38 TDs. A win is a win, particularly in Dublin, and it makes them a little more secure again in coalition.

Anyhow, either way I think this is a by-election we’ll see sooner rather than later. No need to have to run it when the mood music turns more sour. And of course it continues this curious honeymoon period that the Coalition has been becalmed in for a little while longer.