First Preference Vote in Presidential Election

From RTÉ:

2115 National FIRST COUNT: Higgins 39.6% (701,101), Gallagher 28.5% (504,964); McGuinness 13.7% (243,030); Mitchell 6.4% (113,321); Norris 6.2% (109,469); Scallon 2.9% (51,220); Davis 2.7% (48,657).

A few brief observations before the holiday weekend – longer ones early next week. That’s a good result for Michael D. Higgins, no question about it. Whether it can transfer to the government, and more particularly the Labour Party is a different matter. That’s an excruciatingly awful one for Gay Mitchell. And Fine Gael.

One would feel sorry on a human level for Gallagher, hero to zero, or 504,964 first preferences, and all in the space of three or perhaps four days. And yet, there’s a lesson there as to what that vote is made up of.

A terrible day for Davis, and Scallon. A so-so one for Sinn Féin, four per cent better than their vote in the General Election but a few points less than some recent polls give them nationally, although double digits given the media hammering is perhaps an achievement in itself [and they’re delighted about besting Mitchell]. It will be interesting to delve into the distribution of that 13.7 per cent nationally. Already some thoughts on that arise.

The distribution of transfers of Davis and Scallon will be informative. But I can’t see them pushing either Mitchell or Norris across the line to recoup expenses, or am I wrong on that score? But I wonder if the crowded nature of the field is partially responsible and whether that will prevent others from entering this race in future years…

A lot of other questions remain. Would Norris have been better to walk away after the first time? Would Pat Cox or Mairead McGuinness have made a concrete difference to the FG vote? Would a less contentious figure than McGuinness have upped the SF vote? And what of the spectre at the feast, that FF vote that went, it would appear, to Gallagher. Where next, and does Dublin West support a renascent FF down the line. But remember, no elections until the locals, short of another meltdown, so plenty of time for people to consider these results and consolidate.

And speaking of Dublin West the saga continues apiece. It’s a Labour gain. But it’s all seemed a bit academic given the weight of government numbers. Roll on the Budget and then we’ll see.

As to the referendums. All will be revealed tomorrow.