Latest European Election poll: Irish Independent/Millward Brown, Munster and Connacht/Ulster

Some interesting analysis from eamonncork here on the latest Irish Independent poll on Munster/Connacht/Ulster constituencies. I’ve just got the paper edition of the Indo and it’s leading heavily on the idea that “SF on course for Euro election victories but FG’s Kelly faces defeat” and the subhead is ‘poll predicts SF will take its first seats outside capital’.

But here’s EC’s thoughts on the matter:

There’s a poll in today’s Irish Indo of the Munster and Connacht/Ulster constituencies. Very interesting.
It would seem to suggest that in Connacht there will be seats for FF, but Thomas Byrne rather than Cope Gallagher, FG, Higgins and McGuinness running neck and neck and SF, Matt Carthy. The last one seems to be a toss-up between Harkin, Flanagan and the second FG candidate, probably whichever of the independents attracts the most transfers gets it. Total Labour vote collapse is striking and so is the fact that Ronan Mullen is down near the bottom, theories of a John Waters supporting silent majority notwithstanding.
In Munster it seems like Brian Crowley has about a quota and a half. Liadh Ni Riada for SF also polling well and one safe seat for FG, either Sean Kelly or Deirdre Clune. FG look favourites for the second because Kieran Hartley is hardly registering at all for FF and I think some of that Crowley vote is personal rather than FF. Diarmuid O’Flynn has an outside shot perhaps if he gets a lot of transfers but he’s only polling the same as FG’s number 3 Simon Harris. Labour vote negligible here too.
All the usual disclaimers about margin of error. Poll carried out by Millward Brown, the Dublin one is in tomorrow’s Sindo.

And:

There’s also the fact that IMHO the polling results tend to affect the election to a small extent so it will be interesting to see how the next polls are affected by these ones. An independent or left candidate probably needs a good showing to convince the undecided that they have a real shot at the seat, the best place for a party candidate to be is probably slightly down on a rival so voters don’t think they’re safe and pass them by. In that respect the likes of Sean Kelly and Cope Gallagher might not be too displeased by their surprisingly unimpressive showing. I think whoever is showing best out of Childers, Ryan, Murphy and Smith in tomorrow’s poll will receive a bit of a boost. Fingers crossed.

Tomorrow’s poll is eagerly awaited.