Projections after the latest poll March 26, 2015
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Irish Politics, The Left.trackback
Impressive work from IEL getting those results of the IT poll so early – earlier than the IT website, for at 3am I went looking and they weren’t posted up on it. Anyhow, some poll that, indicating both FG and SF up, Ind/Others still with a huge bloc of support, the LP making utterly marginal gains and FF… well, that’s all analysis for another day.
Independents and Others 28% (down 4%), Fine Gael 24% (up 5%), Sinn Fein 24% (up 2%), Fianna Fail 17% (down 1%), Labour Party 7% (up 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 28, Fine Gael 46, Sinn Fein 40, Labour Party 4, Independents and Others 40.
SF contesting for 40 seats? Ind/Others likewise. An LP that is hardly even a rump (fascinating how the strength of others renders even 7% for that party less useful, though presumably there’d be some transfers on election day that might buoy it up a little). And overall. SF and Ind/Others on 80 seats.
Of course that’s not going to be the election result, or probably anything like it. On a good day if SF and Ind/Others get 60 between them they’ll be doing remarkably well, but… how things have changed that FF and FG would hardly muster 75 seats between them. Is that the sound of leadership challengers massing? Might be for one. All that said the logic remains of FF and FG forging, presumably with the assistance of the Ross Brigade or RENUA (they like the name written in caps I’m told), an alliance to govern.
And that alone would represent a fundamental rupture with the previous settled dispensation in this state…
The Cedar Lounge Revolution 
A rupture?
FG V SF is still civil war politics.
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That seems to me to be a somewhat reductionist reading if by civil war politics the dynamic is one of difference over the particulars of the civil war with no ideological (for which read left/right) differentiation between the protagonists. I’m even leery about the notion that SF today represents an unbroken continuity with that period given the ruptures within it.
But the point is that fundamentally the hold FF and FG have had on the polity, particularly the former, is it would seem fading. And it’s not just SF but also Ind Ofhers.
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I could turn it around and say that the notion that the FF/FG duopoly was ‘just’ about the civil war is itself reductionist, or, certainly, was not the way a lot of FF voters up to at least the ’50s would have seen it. I’m not claiming that FF were a ‘left’ party, but they were certainly not ‘the same’ as CnaG/ FG
You’re right though; my earlier snark was a bit, well, snarky.
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And there I was thinking my response could be taken as snarky! 🙂
But I think you raise a valid point – a lot if the analysis from all quarters is reductionist and class bases aren’t negligible in all this either.
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AB voters: FG 43, Ind/Oth 31, FF 14, Lab 7, SF 6
C1 voters: Ind/Oth 29, FG 24, FF 19, SF 19, Lab 9
C2 voters: Ind/Oth 31, SF 30, FG 19, FF 14, Lab 5
DE voters: SF 36, Ind/Oth 26, FF 16, FG 15, Lab 8
F1/F2 voters: FG 35, FF 29, SF 17, Ind/Oth 17, Lab 2
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Would I be right in saying that the class differential in voting intentions has never been so stark? (In Ireland)
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It looks that way, doesn’t it?
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But F1/F2 voters plump overwhelmingly for FG/FF. If memory serves, results at the last election were similar. What’s that about? Shades of the 18th Brumaire?
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At 3am you went looking WBS?
CLR the site that never sleeps.
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Hahah, yeah, I’m a light enough sleeper. Often wake for half an hour during the night and if I can’t get back immediately I’ll check the headlines.
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We reds don’t get much sleep under the bed.
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Or on it.
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Decaffinated tea and coffee, it’s yer only man. Well worth the cold turkey for the good sleeps afterwards.
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It would be good if they could be bothered to actually tell us how that 4% breaks, to AAA & PBPA, or to Renua (I’m having none of these caps, if they want caps then they’ll have to make it an acronym)?
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/fine-gael-support-bounces-back-after-12-year-low-in-last-poll-1.2153425
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Are we presuming that AAA = SP here, Liberius?
If not, we need to see separate polling for AAA, SP and PBPA.
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The pollsters would no doubt be recording the AAA and the SP separately, B&A did it their recent poll anyway. Personally I don’t really see what the point would be in that given that the SP looks like running candidates under the AAA banner for the time being. Take the obvious comparison, does anyone care about how many people are supporting the SWP specifically rather than PBPA more generally?
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I don’t think too many would support the SWP under their own banner, hence the PBPA front.
The SP, on the other hand, is a stronger brand/identity (and claim to be more principled), so why don’t their candidates stand as SP rather than AAA?
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Because the Anti Austerity Alliance is the Socialist Party plus a bunch of activists from the campaign against the household tax, not just the Socialist Party. More than half of the AAA’s local election candidates weren’t in the SP, and more than a third of its councillors aren’t.
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Adrian Kavanagh gives predictions based on final outcomes though the core votes in the two most recent polls are the same!
The Only Difference in the Polls is the the application of outdated Filters by B&A and Red C
Read Full Analysis http://wp.me/pKzXa-jh
IPSOS/MRBI(Irish Times) to-day is virtually identical to B&A(Sunday Times) March 16
Ipsos/MRBI Mar 25 Undecided 24, Others 22, FF 13, FG 18, Lab 5, SF 18
B&A Mar 16 Undecided 24, Others 19, FF 14, Fg 19, Lab 5, SF 19
The probable error for 95% confidence on each party score is approximately 3% in both cases
Ipsos/Mrbi unlike B&A, does not use likelihood to vote or recall of vote in the last general election filters.
The final outcome in B&A for FG was 27% and for SF was 19% !!!
The final outcome in IPSOS/MRBI for FG was 24% and for SF was 24% !!!
The difference is the application of outdated filters by B&A!!!!
I can see or hear no comment in the media this morning to the effect that the results of the two polls are in fact statistically identical. !!!!!
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Pardon my stupidity but could someone explain the various voter categories ,(ie) ab cd f1 etc
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AB = rich, upper middle classes; CD = middle income/class; EF = ‘working class’/lower orders. In rough terms, it’s gibberish from the market research industry but influential among wannabe Blairite types.
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F1/F2 are farmers (over/under 50 acres, I think).
C2 is meant to be skilled working class, DE semi-skilled and unskilled working class respectively.
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What are f1/f2 then?
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Farmers.
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F1 = farmers with over 50 acres land, F2 = less than 50 acres. I think an acre is roughly two football pitches but I could be wrong.
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That would not be too far off.
50 acres is a funny division point. As if the farmer with 60 acres is in a sweet position.
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An acre is less than a football pitch
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Labour Comes Last Among the Poorest Strata
D+E voters: SF 36, Ind/Oth 26, FF 16, FG 15, Lab 8
Analysis http://wp.me/pKzXa-jh
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