jump to navigation

More on that poll at the weekend June 23, 2016

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
trackback

As noted at the weekend there was a poll for the Sunday Times – Behaviour and Attitudes conducted it and the result? 

FG: 26 (+1), FF:25 (-2), SF: 17 (+1), Independents 9 (+1),  INDEPENDENT ALLIANCE: 6 (-1), LP: 5 (NC), AAAPBP: 4 (NC), GP: 3 (-1), WP: 2, SD: 1, RENUA: 1.   (full details can be found here).

As also noted, there’s so little change that it is as if – despite the hiatus in forming a government, and the subsequent pains in pulling that administration together – little or nothing has happened since polling day. The only real upward tick (and it’s still within the MOE) is that of SF, and one would have to presume that the figures there are rather more realistic than some of the fanciful variations in its support in polls predating the election.

Indeed what we have is stasis in the political system. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are unable to break out or ahead of one another. No one else is able to do likewise. An election on these figures probably would return in or around the same number of TDs in largely similar cohorts to the current crew. No one is going to want an election any time soon.

And we’ve the Summer recess too. It’s difficult to see attitudes changing much across it either. There’s no big ticket items on the way – indeed notable how the government is kicking for touch on everything (what’s that, bin charges? They’re not going to touch that with a barge pole).

So where does this leave us? Talking to various interested parties from various political backgrounds across the last week or so the sense I had was – and I stress this is far from scientific, but impressions do count in politics – that there is a palpable sense of this administration bedding down for at least a year or two. Or as was put to me, if it could survive the first four weeks it could go quite some distance.

Where matters will get really interesting is if there is a challenge in FG, or alternatively if the polls show some significant volatility in relation to the FF (of FG) vote. Granted, there are events. Brexit will be no picnic, that’s for sure, and that’s only one of many external pressures that may come to bear on the government and the state. But short of those if we keep seeing polls like this, there’s going to be no appetite for change.

And here’s a thought, it’s not difficult to see this administration as being unloved but tolerated – for the moment – in a way its predecessor wasn’t. Certainly the rhetoric is very different. No Kelly, Howlin or FGers making too grand claims. One has the feeling that they’re keeping the heads down. Not that it’s doing them much good:

In reality, there has been no significant improvement in satisfaction with the Government since last month’s poll, with just over a quarter (26%) of the electorate happy with the way in which the country is being run. 63% are dissatisfied with the Government – a figure which rises to 7 in 10 of the blue collar working C2DE section of the population. Indeed, Fine Gael supporters are the only grouping which profess any level of satisfaction with the manner in which the Government is running the country, at 62% overall.

But no one is capitalising on this (bar SF which is 3% higher than at the election). That’s telling too.

Comments»

1. Dermot O Connor - June 23, 2016

Where that 3% increase to SF to materialise, it would put them in the running for +10 seats, according to AK. Of all the parties they seem best placed to capitalise on even small shifts towards them. Even a 2% swing puts them over 30. So 30-35 seats is a very realistic target for them now.

https://adriankavanaghelections.org/2016/05/30/sinn-fein-target-constituencies-for-the-next-general-election/

Wexford – 0.07% gain required (Mythen stood on 13.5% of the TVP when he was eliminated on the final count)

Donegal – 0.3% gain required (MacLochlainn stood on 13.5% of the TVP when she was eliminated on the final count)

Longford-Westmeath – 1.2% gain required (Hogan stood on 14.2% of the TVP when he was eliminated on the final count)

Galway West – 1.6% gain required (O Clochartaigh stood on 12.6% of the TVP when he was eliminated on the final count)

Dublin Bay South – 1.9% gain required (Andrews stood on 13.1% of the TVP when he was eliminated on the final count)

Cavan-Monaghan – 2.1% gain required (Reilly stood on 11.7% of the TVP when she was eliminated )

Dublin West – 2.2% gain required (Donnelly stood on 16.9% of the TVP when she was eliminated on the final count)

Meath East – 2.6% gain required (O’Rourke stood on 20.7% of the TVP when he was eliminated on the final count)

Mayo– 2.6% gain required (Conway-Walsh stood on 12.3% of the TVP when she was eliminated)

Tipperary – 3.0% gain required (Morris stood on 8.0% of the TVP when he was eliminated)

Like

WorldbyStorm - June 23, 2016

Wow, great work. I think that’s plausible. But a lot depends on whether the FF vote remains as soft as it is. Do you think a new leader would help?

Like

Dermot O Connor - June 23, 2016

These were some of Kavanagh’s more interesting posts. Check out this one on FF (note how they need a much higher climb % to start winning significant seats:

https://adriankavanaghelections.org/2016/05/31/fianna-fail-target-constituencies-for-the-next-general-election/

So whereas small bumps see SF taking seats, FF has gaps in their target constituencies. Greens for example, have very little chance of gaining on a uniform swing (of course, local constituencies and candidates probably aren’t modeled into Kav’s studies).

The received wisdom is that leaders don’t matter – but I don’t buy that. I think a leader is good for + or – a few %, and those few % really add up. (Miliband vs. Paxman, for example, or Kinnock “we’re all riiiiiight” @ Sheffield in 1992).

SF under anyone but Gerry (MLM, Pearse, Eoin O Broin) – I think they would get that extra 2 or 3% that might bring in 5-10 seats. But same for FG – say they fight next time under Leo (how could he possibly be worse than Enda?) whereas who do FF have as a replacement? MM is as good as it gets for them.

Like

WorldbyStorm - June 23, 2016

That’s convincing re Martin. Any other potential leader would be worse. I hadn’t thought that re anew FG leader. Interesting thought.

Like

gendjinn - June 23, 2016

Be on the watch out for anymore “Senior FG sources” talking shite about other FGers.

Based on Kavanagh’s top 10 targets that would flip 6 FG, 2 LAB, 1 FF and 1 IND. Resulting in FG 44, FF 43, SF 33 and 1 less IND. Be hard to avoid FF/FG coalition on those numbers.

So if Enda is a 2% drag on the keel there will be eagerness to have him go before FF pull the plug on them. But, Enda appears to have a lock on a majority of the FG TDs and Varadkar is anathema to a significant chunk of them. Is there someone else Varadkar could support, because he comes across as far too egotistical to make that kind of a self-effacing and eventually victorious play.

Liked by 1 person

PaddyM - June 23, 2016

Leo (how could he possibly be worse than Enda?)

I do wonder a bit if Leo has the same appeal to the wider electorate beyond the Dublin middle-classes and hard-core FGers. Coveney strikes me as being a more emollient character beyond the core.

Like

WorldbyStorm - June 23, 2016

I think that’s likely, but would both leaders of the largest parties coming from Cork play against Coveney.

Like


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: