Sunday Independent Stupid Statement of the Week: Nothing to See Here Edition May 28, 2017
Posted by Garibaldy in Sunday Independent Stupid Statement of the Week.trackback
So there’s very little from today by way of opinion pieces on the Sindo website, so basically this week’s edition is cancelled for lack of material (when this thread was started around ten years ago, never expected to say that). The scare stories promoted by the right about the south’s supposed lack of readiness do however continue in today’s edition if you want some stupidity.
The Cedar Lounge Revolution 
Scare stories exactly. There’s some level of credulity at work there with some.
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So, an acknowledged asset of the British security services is quoted by the Sindo favourably, at length, in a piece designed to influence public opinion on a matter of British interest?
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(And don’t get me started on that reptile O’Callaghan, whom I see has resurfaced to pen an anti-Corbyn piece for his British intelligence masters)
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And then there’s the text of the article. To quote:
“However, Aimen Dean, a former bomb-maker and al-Qaeda recruiter, who in 2007 personally pledged allegiance to Osama bin Laden, insists that Ireland offers Isil-like terror groups “ample opportunities”.
He was an early member of the al-Qaeda terrorist organisation – but he changed sides in 1998 and became a spy for Britain’s security and intelligence services, MI5 and MI6.
Speaking to the Sunday Independent, he stressed it is common knowledge among Jihadists that Ireland can be a “safe haven” for terrorists.
“It is a country which has no central intelligence service of its own; it depends on foreign intelligence to anticipate threats.”
Dean, now an international security expert, left al-Qaeda almost 20 years ago after the US embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam were bombed.”
They can’t even get 2007 and 1997 right.
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Ireland has two ‘intelligence services’ – the Special Branch and the Army’s G2. Both, notably, have come to attention in the past for scandals which emerged from their secondary role of watching each other.
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I can think of the Crinnion case where, iirc, G2 arrested someone in Special Branch who was meeting with an MI6 contact. Was there anything else?
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The Arms Trial.
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I am long of the opinion that Ireland north or south is in no danger whatsover of an ISIS attack. While isis are totally crazy and are to be condemned without reservation,they would have no grudge against Ireland.Ireland is seen internationally as “non imperialist” and whilst FF and FG are totally unsound with regard to neutrality etc, most of the world still view Ireland through the prism of being the first “anti colonial” rebels.In fact the first political association many would make when Ireland is mentioned would be Gerry Adams and they would never have even heard of Kenny or Martin.
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Still though. No harm making sure the hospitals are properly resourced just in case.
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There’s a real, and sometimes deliberate, attempt to confuse causation, motivation and justification when talking about Islamic terrorism attacks.
Many of these people do genuinely hate “Western Values” but that does not mean that in the absence of Western military actions in the Middle East etc., the terror threat would have been the same.
Harmful and radical ideologies spread during times of unrest. The number of wars in the ME and within countries in the ME has resulted in traumatised region. Al Queda and Isis offer a simple explanation for the madness and offer individuals who otherwise feel powerless a means to rectify the situation. The mode Western militaries drop bombs on kids and support evil governments within the region, the more the claim that they are the “Great Satan” looks reasonable. They gain support, finance and volunteers in response to such wars.
Ireland’s, relative, lack of involvement means that we are not a priority target. It’s not that the man from Manchester would not consider it justified to have carried out the same actions in Cork – it just means that he’s not going to go to the trouble of going to Cork to do that action when it is a lower value target. Killing Brits is just easier for him and they are a better value target because of British military involvement. He might consider travelling to the US to carry out an attack if the risks were low, because Americans are an even better target, but Ireland offers a low return on investment.
A native/resident Jihadi might consider an attack in Ireland because it is convenient. Then again, he can pretty freely go to the UK where there are higher value targets. But let’s say, it is easier for him to stay here and plan an attack:
Islamic communities are small (circa 50,000 dispersed across the country). In Muslim majority countries, somewhat favourable opinions of Isis are somewhere between 1& 10 per cent mark. Let’s just say it’s 5% given the mix of backgrounds (probably a massive overestimation given the middle-class, relatively liberal bias we have within our Muslim communities). That leaves us with about 2500 people who might have some sympathies.
Worldwide, there are something like 30,000 members of ISIS. That’s about 0.015 percent of the Muslum population or 0.15 percent of those who sympathise with ISIS somewhat. So the chance of somebody actually being a member of ISIS within Ireland, as a back of a fag packet figure is, tiny. The chances they might be “ISIS-inspired” is higher but, let’s face it, the number of potential threats who might actually be worth of following can probably be counted using fingers and toes and at that, you might not need the toes.
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This is precisely why I feel the idea that this violence is existential as a threat to the ‘west’. The numbers involved are minute given the broader populations and it seems that the broader communities aren’t keen to assist or support unlike other conflicts.
It’s not that there’s no threat. It is that the threat is one that no military solution can deal with. Rather it requires intelligence and security and some sensible precautions in relation to public events etc and defenses in cities. That can’t prevent everything but it would go some way to addressing it.
And as to this state I think you’re spot on. The only reason I could see for an attack would be convenience. It could happen but… even in the very nebulous political strategies that these guys have that is pretty vague.
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I listen to the likes of Paul Williams who in his analysis of the threat from Isis talked about our need to devote more resources to the Gardai etc. during the week and I wonder what planet his ilk live on.
The probability of an attack from Isis is slim to none. The probability of a Manchester style attack coming from someone with a mental health problem who thinks their Jesus is higher, but there’s no calls for reorganising and investing in mental health services from the likes of him.
There’s a common and bizzare mentality that sees force based solutions as superior and more important even when the statistics show that money would be better spent elsewhere on preventive measures.
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Williams is a uniform fetishist. Those brave lads (it is always men) in uniform occupy a special moral place in society. Force is superior because it is the quintessential act of a uniformed one. Other methods may be better, but this will only be true if the Gardai or the Army say so.
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I listen to the likes of Paul Williams who in his analysis of the threat from Isis talked about our need to devote more resources to the Gardai etc. during the week and I wonder what planet his ilk live on.
He makes his career from, on one hand, being of use to the Guards as a reliable mouthpiece. On the other, ginning up scare stories that even Jim Cusack would blush at.
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here’s an attempt to explore what led young mr Abedi to become a suicide bomber and to look at some red flags or danger signals that should have been perceived
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‘In July 2013, Wahhabism was identified by the European Parliament in Strasbourg as the main source of global terrorism….
In the 1970s, with the help of funding from petroleum exports and other factors, Saudi charities started funding Wahhabi schools (madrassas) and mosques across the globe and the movement underwent “explosive growth”.
The movement now has worldwide influence inspiring the ideology of extremists worldwide.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/03/29/what-is-wahhabism-the-reactionary-branch-of-islam-said-to-be-the/
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/this-spread-of-holy-fascism-is-a-disaster-9391052.html
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