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That new poll January 22, 2020

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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The IT editorial on their IpsosMRBI poll was entertaining. They seemed a bit surprised at the rise in SF’s vote.

Another notable feature of the poll is that Sinn Féin support has jumped by seven points. Following its poor performance in last May’s local and European elections, there had been a general expectation that the party would lose ground in the general election. But the poll suggests otherwise.

And in relation to the GP, expectations damped down a bit – ‘it has a realistic chance of winning a number of new seats in Dublin’.

Pat Leahy was still pointing to a GP ‘historic election’. Albeit ‘if it can add to these numbers’. Indeed.

But the narrative has shifted. The IT, in fairness correctly, warns that SF tends to lose support on the day. But the idea of a Green tsunami appears to have receded somewhat, despite the likelihood of them making some solid gains.

As to SF, if the poll was even close, well they’d be delighted. As might Ind/Others who remain a remarkably buoyant cohort so far. Less so for the smaller parties.

As to the ‘larger’ parties. Not so delighted. Though FF will be pleased to be ahead of FG in the second poll of the campaign. But… look, all this still points to much lower seat numbers than are necessary to form a government without real wrangling with others.

Comments»

1. oliverbohs - January 22, 2020

Eamon Ryan an inhibition to any Green Wave, you’d think. Great Thunberg has nothing to learn from him or the likes of him

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oliverbohs - January 22, 2020

Greta Thunberg. FFS WordPress

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2. Dermot M O Connor - January 22, 2020

FF a miserable .7% above their 2016 GE total on the IT poll, so not exactly a great leap forward (as opposed to the previous poll). Need more polls! Good chance of FF and FG both being under 50, which would be sweet. A seriously lousy number for FF given the FG meltdown, let’s hope it holds.

SF in 2016 got 13.5% (24 seats, should have been 25, and were within a whisker in 3 or 4 others), surely a decent chance of approaching 30 seats or more esp. with FG below 30%.

I’ve noticed how green support rises when there’s external stimuli, like the Australian fires, Extinction Rebellion street theater and the like…which seems to be quiet at the moment – so their support falls (tells you something about how committed their supporters are, or rather, aren’t). They definitely reaped a bonus from that in summer. Well, if they manage to get 7 or 8 TDs maybe they’ll have enough political clout to do something really inspiring like adding a few more bicycle lanes in the leafy suburbs for their base. Goosepimples.

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Alibaba - January 22, 2020

‘Goosepimples.’ Sadly, that’s so true.

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gypsybhoy69 - January 23, 2020

I’m rooting for one Green – the one in Mayo.

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Dermot M O Connor - January 23, 2020

Yes; IIRC she’s the one (along with the Mayo greens) who came out as explicitly anti-capitalist. I can see her breaking with the party sooner or later.

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3. irishelectionliterature - January 23, 2020

I think part of the SF rise is the performance of Louise O’Reilly, Eoin O’Broin and Pearse Doherty. They have been doing really well recently.
The FF front bench isn’t great at all which along with being seen as half supporting FG hasn’t done them many favours.

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WorldbyStorm - January 23, 2020

Yes, there’s a qualitative difference

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4. Joe - January 23, 2020

On on another thread someone put up the scores from Dublin from the first poll. I haven’t seen the Dublin breakdown in the second poll.
But in the first one it looked like FF had tanked in Dublin while FG were doing mighty fine. And yet nationally it was sort of the opposite.

So just wondering …. could there be a bit of Dublin vs the rest in this? The rest swinging FF cos they don’t want a D4 type Dub running the country and would prefer a country boy. Now I know Cork city is the most cosmopolitan place on earth but maybe a lot of people outside Dublin don’t know that.

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irishelectionliterature - January 23, 2020

Loads of reasons in Dublin that FG are polling higher than FF. The economy is doing well, house prices recovered (after FF wrecked the place) and also FF not being as socially liberal as FG.
I’m told by some rural friends that Varadkars appeal ends at the M50. The impression that the East coast has been the main beneficiary of the recovery, a lot of towns haven’t recovered since the crash. The farmers too giving out about the beef prices (which is in part a side effect of increased milk production).

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sonofstan - January 23, 2020

It was pointed out elsewhere, and I’m probably the slow learner here, but FF and FG are locked in co-dependency at this stage. Where once, the replacement of the other was the aim, now each needs the other to be strong enough, but not too strong, to hold the centre-right bloc together, while maintaining the appearance of difference in order to broaden, even slightly the offer. Once th ebloc sinks much below 50%, they’re both in deep shit.

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irishelectionliterature - January 23, 2020

It’s fascinating to see. FF ruling out FG and SF , FG just ruling out SF. I do think that the confidence and supply arrangement over the last few years has led to a wider belief that they are as good as the same policy wise.
FF are far more vehement against any agreement with FG than vice versa. Post election if as looks likely there will be no option that doesn’t involve two of SF, FF and FG being part of a government, If I were Leo I’d go hell for leather on a coalition with FF. They wouldn’t take it in a million years and if there is another subsequent election FF would possibly suffer as they are not willing to go in with anyone.

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tafkaGW - January 23, 2020

What IEL wrote ^^: you only have to look at the state of middling towns and villages outside the Pale and you can see that the ‘recovery’ is a Dub-centric thing.

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sonofstan - January 23, 2020

Interesting isn’t it?
A Dublin only election would give us an FG/ Green coalition with maybe Labour, a Munster election would give us an FF Majority and rest of Leinster plus Connacht/ Ulster would suggest an FF/SF lash up.

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5. Paul Culloty - January 23, 2020

Dea-scéal ó Dhún na nGall, dar le Nuacht TG4:

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WorldbyStorm - January 23, 2020

Go hiontach!

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tafkaGW - January 23, 2020

Great news.

Donegal people are smarter than to fall the Casey schtick.

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roastedsnow1 - January 23, 2020

Who is he running for? The National Party or Irexit?

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WorldbyStorm - January 23, 2020

Himself! As an Ind I think.

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james mcbarron - January 23, 2020

A pity to see Pringle polling so low, a principled and hard working TD

Liked by 1 person

Paul Culloty - January 23, 2020

Full data here – not all lost for Pringle, as he could still sneak the final seat on transfers:

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WorldbyStorm - January 23, 2020

Yeah, Pringle is sound.

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6. sonofstan - January 23, 2020

Mentioned on Late debate last night: no Labour candidate in Kerry for the first time in 83 years. Given that, even in lean years, they were able to take a seat each in the old Kerrys North and South, this seems like a major retreat.

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Paul Culloty - January 23, 2020

Terry O’Brien was asked to stand again, with Howlin himself appealing, but recent health issues have limited him to his County Council seat.

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sonofstan - January 23, 2020

Thanks. Amazing how much more informative this place is than the MSM.

Liked by 1 person

7. roddy - January 23, 2020

On those figures – 2 SF and Pringle elected on SF transfers.

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