That new poll

The IT editorial on their IpsosMRBI poll was entertaining. They seemed a bit surprised at the rise in SF’s vote.

Another notable feature of the poll is that Sinn Féin support has jumped by seven points. Following its poor performance in last May’s local and European elections, there had been a general expectation that the party would lose ground in the general election. But the poll suggests otherwise.

And in relation to the GP, expectations damped down a bit – ‘it has a realistic chance of winning a number of new seats in Dublin’.

Pat Leahy was still pointing to a GP ‘historic election’. Albeit ‘if it can add to these numbers’. Indeed.

But the narrative has shifted. The IT, in fairness correctly, warns that SF tends to lose support on the day. But the idea of a Green tsunami appears to have receded somewhat, despite the likelihood of them making some solid gains.

As to SF, if the poll was even close, well they’d be delighted. As might Ind/Others who remain a remarkably buoyant cohort so far. Less so for the smaller parties.

As to the ‘larger’ parties. Not so delighted. Though FF will be pleased to be ahead of FG in the second poll of the campaign. But… look, all this still points to much lower seat numbers than are necessary to form a government without real wrangling with others.