The ‘non-aligned’ Independents…

It would appear that the Sunday Times got a story wrong as regards the position of at least one of the (and here’s a newly minted phrase) ‘non-aligned Independents’. For…

The government is stepping up contacts with non-aligned independent TDs in a bid to improve its narrowing voting majority in the Dail.
Finian McGrath of Dublin North, Maureen O’Sullivan of Dublin Central and Wicklow’s Joe Behan expressed interest last week in talking to the coalition about offering their possible support in future votes.
Government sources said John Curran, the new chief whip, is likely to meet the independents “in the normal course of his duties”, though none can “be relied upon” to support the government in a difficult vote.
Martin Cullen’s decision to resign his Dail seat as well as his cabinet post has left the government having to fight three by-elections in the autumn.

A loss in all three would leave the coalition with just 84 guaranteed votes, including the independents who support it, while the opposition would have 81. Dissatisfaction within Fianna Fail at Cowen’s reshuffle could also increase the challenge Curran faces in imposing the discipline of the party whip for crucial votes.
A number of junior ministers were among those expressing disappointment at the new ministerial line-up last week.
The Dail arithmetic means the Green Party, with six TDs, has considerable influence. Paul Gogarty, a Green TD, said, this weekend, that the party would use the situation to ensure three key pieces of legislation were passed by the end of the year: a ban on corporate donations, creating a new Dublin mayor and the planning bill.
“The way the numbers have panned out, we’re an absolute requirement now,” said Gogarty, the party’s education spokesman. “We’re flexing our muscles a little bit, because we know we’re a lot stronger than we were this time last year.”

Of course, should the GP pull the plug then that’s it, curtains for the administration. But 84 is a slim margin for government, so little wonder that there’s suddenly rumours in the undergrowth of hands being reached out.

Most crucially, consider the following:

O’Sullivan said she would not rule out sitting down with Fianna Fail to discuss supporting the government. McGrath said he was not interested in a formal agreement, but would vote accordingly as “I see things being delivered”.

Behan, the former Fianna Fail TD who left in protest at cuts to medical cards, also said he would be willing to speak to the government, but that the outcome was unlikely to be positive because he would demand policy reversals on cuts.
That’s a most interesting admission by Behan and a position for him to take.

However, according to Deaglán de Bréadún in the Irish Times recently, the position is rather different. Although…

Independent TD Finian McGrath confirmed there had been increased contact between himself and the Government and that under certain conditions and on a case-by-case basis he would consider voting with Fianna Fáil and the Greens.
“I’m not doing any agreement but if they deliver things in my constituency I will use my vote in a positive manner,” the Dublin North-Central TD said.
He added that he had “deliberately abstained” in the Dáil vote to approve the Cabinet reshuffle because a total of “at least €2 million, maybe €3 million” had been approved in grants to schools in his constituency.
He said he would be “very impressed” if the Government delivered funding for a €34 million project to set up a special dedicated 30-bed unit for cystic fibrosis patients in an extension currently being built at St Vincent’s hospital, Elm Park, Dublin.
“I would be fairly confident that it’s going to happen. If that is delivered, I will use my vote again in future in the Dáil in a positive and constructive manner,” Mr McGrath said.

Which he most certainly did by his lights, voting for NAMA, as did Joe Behan, but curiously – or perhaps not – Maureen O’Sullivan. And she has said that…

However, Dublin Central Independent TD Maureen O’Sullivan said that no attempt had been made to secure her vote in the Dáil: “No approaches were made to me to vote for the Government.”

Here’s the thing. The Independents can – with some justice – point to a legitimising precedence in terms of the Gregory Deal. That is the original of the species, the original sin too – if you care to look at it that way (although as someone I was discussing this with yesterday noted, the first Jackie Healy Rae agreement had something of that too).

Once one Independent clawed back an agreement what was logically to prevent any Independent doing the same? And despite Gregory’s distinct status as clearly of the left, that alone didn’t per se make a deal with the Haughey administration any more palatable in general terms. Indeed one could argue that it was precisely because Gregory was of the left that that makes it more difficult ever since to argue against the deals in principle.

There’s another problem, as so often happens on the left, the shape of the future, or future actions wasn’t outlined in any great detail. It’s as if Tony had metaphorically ripped out the pages of the justification and strategy that underpinned the deal more or less as he and his group wrote them, or not so much the justification and strategy (both of which by the way I think were valid, simply shining a spotlight on deprivation was in and of itself necessary and essential in the 1980s and having something done to ameliorate that equally necessary) but the nature of the yardstick for any potential successors. So, without a clear guide, what deal following could measure up to it?

Perhaps he was blessed that the government with which he made the deal lasted just long enough to deliver aspects of it and none of the ugly demands for votes on one matter or another long after the ink had dried had to take place. That too conferred a degree of purity upon it that in truth was largely retrospective.

In a sense then the Gregory deal became perceived as a one off. One that couldn’t be repeated. And in truth nothing of that scale has been seen since in the capital.

Which begs the question as to whether the only legitimisation of any present or future deal after Gregory is by scale. But I have yet to see a – to use the term once more – yardstick defined as to what is suitably large, or insufficiently so.

And what is intriguing is that subsequently, until relatively recently, and in Dublin at least, the notion that Independents did deals with the Government, wasn’t one that had much currency.

On the other hand although significant the Gregory deal was just a ‘deal’, a broad ranging agreement that encompassed a variety of areas. And a deal presupposes an engagement. And an engagement can be on many different levels. Which means that logically there’s nothing to stop those who come later doing the same.

Although simple support for the government would surely have to come with a price tag? No?

So is what we’re seeing a delicate process whereby signals are being sent out on all sides that, should the need arise, there is a willingness to engage, or- by contrast – whether this is down to the personality of those involved on all sides, is a most interesting question.

From where I stand it seems pretty doubtful that this Government would pull anything out of a hat to sufficient to dovetail with the goals of at least one of the Independents. I could, though, easily be wrong.

For, in extremis, as Haughey himself found out…