A poll, at last… January 21, 2010
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Economy, Irish Politics, The Left.trackback
Well, well, well. MRBI have done a poll for the Irish Times to be published tomorrow and, surprise, surprise, there’s a slight increase in support for the Government and Taoiseach.
The modest recovery in the satisfaction ratings of the Government and the Taoiseach has brought them back to levels last seen in November, 2008.
That high – eh? 😉 Well they won’t be opening the champagne down at FF headquarters just yet, but…
When people were asked who they would vote for if there were a general election tomorrow, the adjusted figures for party support, compared with the last Irish Times poll on September 24th last were: Fianna Fáil, 22 per cent (up two points); Fine Gael, 32 per cent (up one point); Labour, 24 per cent (down one point); Sinn Féin, 8 per cent (down one point – an error in the original draft of this taken from the IT website had them up one point – apologies wbs); Green Party, 3 per cent (down one point); and Independents/others, 11 per cent (no change).
Looks like they won’t be opening the champagne at GP headquarters at all. Sure, it’s in the margin of error, and by some way, but… a downward shift. Not great. And they’re not exactly thrilled over the banking inquiry and the way that’s played out…
And look at the other figures. Fine Gael and Labour there or thereabouts. SF doing what it does best these days, holding steady in the 7 – 10% bracket, and what do you know, no Forde effect after his trip across the barricades to Labour (despite the heated rhetoric pro and contra when he first packed his bags). To be honest I think the unadjusted figures are more interesting again…
The core vote for the parties (before undecided voters are excluded) compared with the last Irish Times poll was: Fianna Fáil, 20 per cent (up two points); Fine Gael, 24 per cent (up one point); Labour, 17 per cent down one point); Sinn Féin, 7 per cent (down two points); Green Party, 2 per cent (down one point); Independents/Others, 8 per cent (no change); and undecided voters 22 per cent (up one point).
Look at all those undecideds. And look at the core votes. FF can surely only go up, short of catastrophe. Although these days, who knows?
But look at this…
Satisfaction with the Government is up five points to 19 per cent while satisfaction with the performance of Taoiseach Brian Cowen is up three points to 26 per cent.
Again, no champagne, but…
I’m funny about polls, but I have a slight tendency to prefer RedC over MRBI. It will be interesting to compare and contrast.
The Cedar Lounge Revolution 
Interesting that Labour have the highest ratio of floaters to core vote.
No denying, its good that new people are being attracted to the Left.
But also worrying that these floaters are usually the softest element of the support base.
Disappointing too that these newly Left-swinging voters are attracted to such an unimaginative choice of party. Maybe its way the pollsters ask the question. Some folk might be embarrassed to be counted as one of the Others. Sounds sort of spooky. A bit Lost-esque.
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Why don’t pollsters include the SP, SWP, PbP, CP and other left-wing parties in their polls, rather than aggregating them, presumably, into the others section? They are registered parties. Is there an anti-Left bias in the methodology of polling companies. How do they decide what level of electoral support a party receives is sufficient to move a small party from ‘others’.
That’s not a paranoid question, by the way; just genuinely interested.
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generally it’s based on the previous couple of elections (unless a party is newly formed with existing TDs as the PDs were in the 1980s) SP, SWP, PbP (who include members of the SWP) and CP have no TDs or senators, and probably less than 10 city/county councillors between them nationally out of I think over 1,000). If you were to include each of them, you’d have to include everyone, and that would mean you’d have about 30 parties, most of them with about 0.1% of the vote.
Given the margin of error is about 3%, this would be somewhat pointless….
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I expect it’s a ‘heuristic’ combination of how big a party’s support is and whether it is or has been in government. If it is below a certain level, then the accuracy of the polls means any figure they may find is meaningless, but if they’re in a key position electorally (as are the Greens now — how low did the PDs slip over their existence?), they probably keep counting them.
I suspect the anti-Left bias of the polls is rooted in the anti-Left bias of the electorate which gives us two small parties with poll figures above 3%.
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There’s a question of spread as well. If there’s a Dublin-wide vote as in the Euros it makes sense to include Joe Higgins, but if you’re talking a general election and the SP is only running in four or so constituencies out of forty-odd, it would be hard to say that poll results were meaningful unless they were local constituency polls. Plus, if a party’s aggregate score is within the margin of error that’s even trickier – a GP vote of 2% as opposed to 4% could make a big difference in terms of results.
Be interesting too to get some sense of how the SF vote breaks down geographically. They’ve got into that awkward position where they can get a credible first preference more or less anywhere but have trouble building up enough critical mass to get TDs elected. I suspect a strong placing in more rural areas where there’s a republican tradition and/or a lack of a Labour presence, but much tougher going in Dublin. But that’s just guesswork on my part.
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Thanks for clarifying those points, Dotski and Tomboktu. However, given the margin of error and the other criteria for deciding who is/who isn’t included as a full party in the questionaires, surely the SP with an MEP and several councillors should, henceforth, be included?
If after the next election there are a few left TDs, from various groups (7 TDs was the figure given here recently) and 2+ of those are for the SP would it be evidence of anti-Left bias if they weren’t included as a party in future polls?
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Why wouldn’t satisfaction be up? Do you see a vibrant opposition? Example: yesterday the minister for snow threatened to introduce no-strike clauses for certain (unnamed) workers. Where was the angry response from the party of labour? They are sitting there terrified they will throw away their chance of coalition by siding with the unions.
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For once, Labour made the right call on the air traffic controllers.
Stand up for the cleaners on 20k facing into a pay cut? Yeah, way to go!
What about a bunch of overpaid gimps bringing the entire trades union movement into disrepute? Lads, ye are on your own with your big pay cheque for company.
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Amanda, workers were arbitrarily suspended by management amidst a dispute over a solid basis for many strikes in many sectors, namely implementation of new technology without adequate training of staff. Except in this instance, there’s a massive public safety concern involved. Given the pretty exemplary safety record of civil aviation in this country, I think it’s safe to say that these people know what they’re doing and are entitled to be both compensated and heeded.
Interestingly, I heard a few (probably fabricated) ordinary-joe “texts” read out on the radio yesterday excoriating the ATCs as desk-bound toffs lording it over the ordinary working stiffs. Talk about the politics of envy! There is a class war raging on the airwaves, but it’s rather on the asymmetric side…
PS: FG’s Olivia Mitchell: “There is no appetite in the current crisis for people in secure jobs to jeopardise those of others.”
Which kind of begs the question, “appetite amongst whom?” The obvious punchlines regarding bankers and TDs need hardly be articulated…
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Amanda, workers were arbitrarily suspended by management amidst a dispute over a solid basis for many strikes in many sectors, namely implementation of new technology without adequate training of staff.
Not quite. The ATC’s were refusing (as directed by IMPACT) to agree to training on three proposed new technological/process changes. There’s no implementation proposed without training.
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Interesting to note the labour court’s take on the new ATC technology and compensation for change today.
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“They are sitting there terrified they will throw away their chance of coalition by siding with the unions.”
Captain Rock, SIPTU signed up to a no-strike clause with CONNEX in 2003. This isn’t the UK. Labour isn’t the natural party of the trade union movement. since the 1930s it’s been split between Fianna Fail and Labour, with Fianna Fail a lot of the time coming out top.
It was quite the topic before Christmas to talk of a “civil war” within the trade union movement, between public and private sector unions. But in one way, the “civil war” that’s going on regarding trade unionism is between Fianna Fail and its trade union base, particularly within the public sector unions. The meltdown in support for Fianna Fail is really not that surprising when you consider that a) one of Fianna Fail’s support bases has been the public sector, including public sector unions, and b) that’s the slice of Irish life that’s been made the financial and tabloid scapegoat for the faults of fianna Fail’s paymasters.
The idea that Labour = trade union is a political concept from the UK, and falls apart when you consider even the barest of outlines of the actual historical reality of Irish political and trade union life.
and that idea, that Labour = trade union support, one that comes from the UK, has had a negative influence on the analysis of the Irish left, mainly because the actual existing reality of trade unionism in Ireland is rarely studied and barely understood. The significant trade union and working class support base of Fianna Fail has left the party. More than likely it’s a temporary thing, but it aint rocket science that when you punish your supporters and their families for the mistakes of others, your supporters tell you to go fuck yourself.
But yeah, if there’s a “civil war” going on in Ireland at the moment, that’s where I see it – between Fianna Fail and its trade union base.
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Well said Conor.
And the fear is that many of those FF-leaning public servants will drift back to their natural home as we get closer to election day.
Why? Because what they fear above all else is the blueshirt hawks getting into power. And the only way to avoid that is a FF/LAB coalition. Which in turn means they\’ll want FF to avoid a complete meltdown so that the numbers will stack up.
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ICTU General Secretary, David Begg, is on the board of the Central Bank. As the property bubble inflated did he raise any regulatory concerns? Whose interests does he serve on the board?
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Was this poll taken before or after many public servants saw the impact of Lenihans latest ‘measures’ in their pay packet?
Ditto the details of the Banking enquiry.
The adjusted figures look as if they expect a lot of the undecideds to vote Labour.
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Very true. That was my reading as well. I think it was taken early this week. But pay packets this weekend and next will be down.
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Got to laugh at the comeback-starts-here approach of the media to a 2% shift which would be politically insignificant were it not statistically meaningless. Of course, it’s seen as triumphant vindication of the IMF budget, not an endorsement of the government.
“Electorate Changes Mind, Only Wishes to Hang, Draw FF TDs.”
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‘What about a bunch of overpaid gimps bringing the entire trades union movement into disrepute? Lads, ye are on your own with your big pay cheque for company.’
The same could apply to any group of well-paid workers. And it usually does, because the media spins that line at the first opportunity. Sorry to see Amanda falling for it. The cleaning staff won’t benefit from the air traffic controllers being hammered. See the USA c. 1980 if you wish. Some of the more excitable have been calling for the same here.
I’m not sure I understand Conor’s point. The link between the unions and Labour isn’t the point. It’s whether Labour will defend the right to strike. But that might annoy the SINDO.
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The analysis by the head of MRBI of this is actually quite sloppily written and also very biased
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2010/0122/1224262843721.html
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Socialism in one Bedroom … yes the ATCs deserve to be compensated, and they already are extremely well compensated for what they do. This dispute was not about access to training on new technology, it was about using the new technology as a lever to grab a pay rise when everyone else is suffering cuts and freezes.
Orrible murder in Whitechapel … but the cleaners will suffer as a result of the ATCs acting the maggot. Their action will make it much more difficult for more deserving cases (cleaners, nurses, teachers) to get a fair hearing from the public.
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There’s several reasons why high-paid workers are high paid; one is willingness to take strike action, see ESB electricians etc. A four hour strike got 15 people re-instated. Learn the lesson; being nice doesn’t work and effective strikes always inconvenience people. The media will ALWAYS play on whatever works; ‘they are too highly paid’ ‘think about the children’ ‘what about the old people’. In 1999 when the nurses went on strike, and they have more goodwill then most, RTE ran reports that trainee nurses were ‘stabbing’ babies with needles in Crumlin because they were incapable of injecting them properly while the senior nurses refused to go to work. You’ll be waiting for an objective, value-free press when it comes to strikes. Fair play to IMPACT.
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I thought their ‘compensation’ was due under Towards 2016. Is compensation a new term for increases due under the transitional agreement. Or are you in the IBEC camp saying that the agreement is dead so therefore it must be?
Won’t the cleaners suffer more because we have a media (ignoring John Waters) who act the maggot and they are the ones who decide who are the deserving cases i.e. the financial institutions etc,.
I never thought I’d say this but there was two News at One shows this week with Sean O’Rourke (no real friend of the left I’d have thought) that got to bottom of this dispute. He seemed to cut to the chase and tore the IAA dude a new one whereas the rest of the media developed a hard one for Michael O’Leary analogies about the Reagan days. IMHO worth going back and listening to.
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I see from this mornings poll that 32% thought the budget was fair!
Then the question about spending cuts or tax increases, 55% favour an emphasis on spending cuts with the figures the highest for FG and FF supporters.
With those figures we can look forward to more public sector salary cuts, reduced services and so on.
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I think you’re right, and it show the exemplary effect of the Budget. After all, consider that the effects of that were largely restricted in the first place – before we consider cuts in programmes which are dropping into place on a continuing basis – to wage cuts in the public sector. Given that there were no changes in taxation etc for most workers and others outside the public sector I’m almost surprised that the figure of those who thought if was ‘fair’ was at 33%. Higher I’d have thought. Because systemic pain then is corralled within a single sector that has been largely pilloried in the preceding period. And that’s in no sense to dismiss the individual and in some instances collective pain felt by those in private sector employments, but to point up the nature of the Budget and its impacts.
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I wonder if the next poll and the one or two after will be the ones to really analyse, after public sector workers get their monthly pay slips and when the public are starting to hear and maybe appreciate what the cuts will mean to them above the pain that all of us are prepared to share on an equitable basis.
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Like WBS, I’m surprised the figure wasn’t higher. The pain was so narrowly ringfenced that most people don’t realise what’s in store for them yet. Also, if the question was couched simply as “Was the budget fair?”, not many peopled would have paused to ask “fair on whom?” In those circumstances, and the near-orgasmic reaction of the media, 68% opposition is encouraging.
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Captian Rock … is it really just willingness to strike that gets you a 100 grand pay cheque? Secondary teachers are plenty willing to strike, yet they get only half an ATCs salary. Thats despite being better qualified and probably more social useful.
What gets the ATCs and ESB men the big money is their strategic position. They can bring the country to a standstill by closing the air ports and turning out the lights. Also the relatively small number of them. The large stream of money into their employers coffers (expensive landing charges and steep electricity bills) does no harm either.
None of the above applies to ordinary public servants like teachers & nurses & cleaners.
Gypsey … who is in the IBEC camp? The Left shouldnt feel an obligation to support every single union action no matter how wrong-headed. Misguided support for inappropriate industrial action does more harm than good.
Speaking of compensation. The 2016 increases were meant to compensate for expected inflation, which didn’t happen in the end. The union movement needs to concentrate its fire on protecting the lower paid who are suffering pay cuts and pension levy, not the ATCs looking to blag their way to a pay rise that no one else is getting.
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Amanda, I’m surprised you can’t see how this strike relates to the broader continuum of the politico-media complex assault on workers. It’s precisely because the very concept of industrial action is being undermined across the board that management felt they could move against a very secure and highly-skilled workforce (who are paid very high wages and work very short hours for a very, very good reason) with impunity. It is completely in consonance with the IBEC/INM agenda. Do you think it’s a coincidence that it’s happening now?
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‘What gets the ATCs and ESB men the big money is their strategic position.’
Exactly. Hard to bring in scabs at short notice to do their jobs. Not so hard with cleaners unfortunately.
High paid- have a look at coverage of any strike- the media will flag up the high rates of any occupation. Fact is, sections of the media, and of the cabinet, want to use this to break union organisation, ala Reagan in 1980. Effective strike action is disruptive.
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So does it boil down to every workplace for themselves? If your lucky enough to be in a strategic position, then large up your demands much as you like? But if your unlucky enough to be in a job thats easily scabbed, then tough.
Little naive me, I thought it was more about solidarity right across the board. If the ATCs were part of a cross-Public Service campaign to ease the pay cuts on the lower paid, then I would have a lot of respect. Then their special strategic position could be used for the benefit of all union members, especially those at the bottom of the heap. Instead their solo-run will prolly rebound against the lower paid in the long-term.
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[…] regards the fight back by the Government, I have to agree with Socialism in one Bedroom who says: Got to laugh at the comeback-starts-here approach of the media to a 2% shift which would be […]
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