So what of Sinn Féin? An analysis of their potential electoral fortunes…. May 12, 2010
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Irish Politics, Northern Ireland, Sinn Féin, The Left, Uncategorized.trackback
A guest post from AK of the Irish Election Literature Blog – part of his continuing series of analyses of the fortunes of the political parties.
That was then…
It’s 2004 and Gerry Adams is the most popular leader in the country. Mary Lou McDonald is after winning a seat in The European Parliament, Pearse Doherty narrowly misses out after polling 15.5% in the North West, John Dwyer polls almost 9% in East. On the same day the Local elections deliver more good news as Sinn Féin more than doubled their seats to 54 (an increase of 33 seats to be precise). Nationwide they now have council seats to position themselves for the next General Election…
The growth seemed unstoppable. The ‘Project’ was on track. In Dublin where they already had two TDs in Sean Crowe and Aengus Ó Snodaigh, the prospects of Larry O’Toole, Dessie Ellis and Nicky Kehoe now looked very real. Daithi Doolan prospects were being talked up too. Elsewhere it was assumed Arthur Morgan, Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin and Martin Ferris would be returned. In Donegal Pearse Doherty and Padraig MacLochlainn looked decent bets. Gains in Meath, Sligo -North Leitrim, Cork, Wexford and Waterford were also predicted. Indeed 2 days before the election, political pundits Ivan Yates and Noel Whelan had Sinn Féin winning 11 and 9 seats respectively. Enthusiastic supporters talked of 15 seats and overtaking Labour at the following election as the inevitable march of Sinn Féin continued on.…
This is now…
When the votes were counted Sinn Fein had won just 4 seats as Sean Crowe had lost his seat in Dublin South West. In 2009 they lost their European Parliament seat in Dublin and their vote fell to 9.19% in North East. On the plus side Toireasa Ferris polled well in South and in Leinster Kathleen Funchion and Thomas Sharkey increased the party vote to over 11%. In the Local elections they won the same number of seats as they did in 2004.
And next?
So looking at those elections and some recent polls what are their prospects in the next General Election?
Currently they have 4 TDs, Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin, Arthur Morgan, Martin Ferris and Aengus Ó Snodaigh. Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin in Cavan-Monaghan and Arthur Morgan in Louth should both be safe.
Martin Ferris will be under pressure to hold his seat between a resurgent Labour Party and the inclusion of parts of West Limerick after the Constituency boundary review. In the Local Elections Sinn Féin did well in North Kerry and took a few hundred votes in West Limerick. The performance of
Toireasa Ferris in both the Local and European Elections would point at a better chance of holding the seat were she to run.
In 2007 Aengus Ó Snodaigh narrowly scraped in (by 69 votes from Labours Eric Byrne). Since then the Sinn Fein vote dropped in the Local Elections (and one of the councillors elected Louise Minihan has since left the party) and the People Before Profit vote increased. Labour were close to winning two seats the last time and if the polls are to be believed then 2 seats must surely be on the cards here. Fianna Fáil will lose at least 1 TD, so Ó Snodaigh will be battling it out with People Before Profit’s Joan Collins for the final seat (That’s unless the FF vote totally collapses). If Labour were to have surplus votes they are more likely to go to Collins than Sinn Fein, Similarly for any surplus Fine Gael votes (although in less numbers).
Any Gains?
Sean Crowes loss in Dublin South West was one of the shocks of the 2007 Election. There were a number of factors to the loss, one being the partys (or one party councillors) stance on Tallaght Stadium which was rumoured to have been one of the causes for a split locally. (I’ve a theory too that Crowe lost votes due to population change. Where there was an exodus from Tallaght to parts of Kildare are further afield, where a lot of people sold up and moved down to new estates in the country. Similar happened in the Blanchardstown area where there was a small exodus to Navan and even as far as Cavan.) Crowe though has been expected to win his seat back in Dublin South West, with either Charlie O’Connor or Conor Lenihan losing out. In the 2009 Local Elections Labour got over double the Sinn Fein vote in the two Tallaght wards. With five councillors in these two Tallaght wards, Labour have a raft of decent running mates for Pat Rabbitte. Good vote management here and Labour should win a second seat which may make it hard for Crowe. There are also growing signs that the area has a dissident Republican element which presumably would have previously voted for Crowe. Hard to see any other possibilities on the Southside bar maybe Dublin Mid West. Elsewhere in Dublin, a previous target Dublin Central will have been made harder by the defection of Christy Burke. There will be at least one Fianna Fail seat lost there, but Pascal Donohoe looks the front runner for that. Fianna Fail look set to lose a seat in Dublin North West with Bill Tormey the likely beneficiary. The vote of Dessie Ellis dropped between the 2002 and 2007 General Elections and also the Sinn Fein vote in his area dropped between the 2004 and 2009 Local Elections so unless the Sinn Fein vote increases considerably Dessie wont win the seat. In Dublin North East Larry O’Toole did increase his vote between 2002 and 2007 but the Sinn Fein vote fell back between the 2004 and 2009 Local Elections. (If I were a Sinn Fein strategist I’d have Mary Lou McDonald standing in either Dublin North West or Dublin North East. I’d also be tearing my hair out trying to find somewhere, other than Dun Laoghaire, the talented Eoin O’Broin could make a foothold for a council and Dail seat).
Possible gains outside of Dublin….
As has been the case for a while the two Donegal’s could return Pearse Doherty and Padraig MacLochlainn. At least one should get in, given the unpopularity of Fianna Fail. These constituencies have form though in electing Independents. Independent is the route that many fed up Fianna Fail voters prefer to go. I don’t think Labour can win either seat although stranger things have happened. After that though Sean McManus would have a chance in Sligo-North Leitrim and maybe Jonathan O’Brien has an outside prospect in Cork North Central and that’s it.
On a bad day Sinn Fein could end up with 2 seats on a very good day 8 seats. If Labour continue to be as attractive to voters as the polls suggest, I think they will do well to return with 4 seats as Ferris, Ó Snodaigh and Crowe will be directly impacted by Labours increase in votes.
The Cedar Lounge Revolution 
Cheers for this AK, a forensic piece of work indeed. It does seem as though the Shinner surge, if it ever existed, has run out of steam. Mind you, their support does tend to yo-yo unpredictably in the polls, so one can never be sure.
I disagree with you on Dublin North West. I’m calling that one for Ellis. He beat Dr. Chameleon comprehensively in the locals and a lot of FF support in DNW is old-school republican, which will serve him well. Additionally, much of Ellis’s vote, unlikely as it seems, is a former left republican Workers’ Party vote which didn’t follow De Rossa to Labour. They should be out in decent numbers to help him over the line.
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Sinn Fein are in serious difficulties in the South, but despite themselves I’d expect them to make small gains if there was an election in the near future. The FF vote will go through the floor and in some places (most obviously Donegal) SF are in the best position to benefit.
John Dwyer’s remark about Doherty being better suited to selling life insurance than to radical politics still cracks me up.
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There is a possiblility Morgan could be in trouble – Seamus Kirk is now the ceann comhairle, does that automatically reduce this to 3 seats?
Backlash against FF wouldn’t be as severe as a result, but a lot depends on whether the wind is behind either labour or a 2nd FG candidate.
Unless something changes drastically, I can’t see them having a great election – surely this econimic crisis should have been the making of them but it seems to have done them no favours at all.
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Louth becomes 5 seater next time, I think.
Curiously, of the current 4, 3 are Dundalk based, which would suggest that Labour must run a Drogheda candidate – it’s where the growth in the county has been, and the constituency now takes in suburban Drogland as well (which is in Meath)
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If that’s the case i stand corrected.
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I thought Morgan was eager to retire and manage his fish business?
The problem with the media coverage of SF is that it’s all or nothing. A few years ago the genuises that populate our political commentary were predicting that the Shinners were unstoppable, had virtual control of workling class Dublin, the most popular leader in the country and unlimited funds. I remember the venerable Shane Coleman basing his knowledge of Sinn Fein’s finances on a glossy anti-Iraq war pamphlet. Then a bad election and the party was finished, Adams was a huge liability etc etc. There is a limited base for Sinn Fein in the south, as an adjunct to a successful northern nationalist party. They won’t go away, but neither will they grow very rapidly (short of the Brits invading, ie. unlikely). They might have made more headway in the ‘current climate’ had their youth/agitprop/street fighting wing not defected en masse to Erigri. In some areas SF still have a presence and in general they are a bit more local and working class than a lot of the far left. But politically they are run from Belfast and Mary Lou is not equipped to be more than a Gerry A mouthpiece which hinders further development down here. I’d say 6 seats on a good day in the next election, will stay at 4 on a bad one. (Donegal voters may go for an independent if one exists rather than SF: they may have peaked there.) All this will really tell you is that most political commentators simply reflect their own prejiduces or their own political affiliations: see Shane (‘my brother in law is not a Dundalk scumbag who plays to the Catholic right-wing and or law n’ order gallery’) Coleman’s piece on Gilmore last Sunday for evidence of this.
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http://sinnfeinkeepleft.blogspot.com/2010/05/red-c-poll-and-challenge-for-sinn-fein.html#comments
Some discussion on the topic here: the Quinn affair seems to have opened up a lot of confusion in the ranks as Shinners from Cavan-Monaghan-Fermanagh etc have quite different views to the Dublin membership.
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Aside froma possible Labour surge I would say that SF has become too respectable. Those who are really deprived even during the Celtic Tiger period are no longer being cultivated. The necessity to prove to the powers that be that SF is no longer revolutionary has lost them the support of the Dublin ghettoes.Moving away from tough measures against drug dealers and money lenders to a cuddly approach may please middle class do-gooders but cuts little ice in the communities where they are a scurge. It took a generation ( anf FG were not convinced) for FF to move from being slightly constitutional, it has taken SF just a few years.
I am intrigued at the growth of Eirigi. Any more info.
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Well, they weren’t kneecappng them but SF were prominent in the hysteria about head shops, helping to fan the flames of ignorant outrage.
As for the “growth” of Eirigi, they’ve recruited a bit in the North on the basis that they are the angriest Catholics. They are still pretty small in the South although they have some energetic people. In terms of politics, it’s fairly dismal stuff. Bog standard nationalism with an incoherent left gloss.
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I probably don’t need to tell you this, but you can just go ahead and ignore Mark P’s drivel. éirígí was founded on the basis that any republican project that is not explicitly socialist will simply end in assimilation into the status quo. They have clearly nailed their colours to the mast in calling for the abolition of capitalism and for the development of a revolutionary socialist politics.
Mark P’s being facetious as Socialist Party members have attempted to smear éirígí’s opposition to imperialist triumphalism in the Six Counties as “sectarian”.
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Nailing your own colours to the mast there it seems Ciarán.
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I find it hard to accept that Eirigi’s policies are solely bog standard nationalism with a left gloss. If its to be regarded as true then we must consider the Socialist party’s economic prescriptions in response to the current economic crisis as bog standard sloppy socialism with no gloss.
Please prove me wrong by providing a link to the specific policies that the socialist party proposes to correct the current crisis. The only description of the Socialists economic policies are narrative pieces more typical of a blog post than a policy platform. That level of contribution explains why they are on 1-2% in this country 2 full years into the biggest economic mess in decades.
The socialists in their policy free content-less glass house can hardly throw stones at Eirigi now can they.
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“…Socialist party’s economic prescriptions in response to the current economic crisis as bog standard sloppy socialism with no gloss. ”
Or sloppy economism that ignores the national question and the lessons of Leninism…
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yu jim of jim monaghan fame orig from donegal…eirigi are ok they dont have a strategy rather trhe policing issue.i believe sf should continue to stay in communication with these as really the enthusiasm for sf wont evaporate entirely.
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Being realistic though, in my experience, Eirigi are quite energetic and genuine in their activism, though there are some serious flaws in their politics. For example, their Anti-Lisbon posters ‘Never Mind the Bollocks – It IS the same Treaty!’, while clever were extremely self-indulgent. Any serious left organisation had to tackle issues like that in terms of what it would mean in terms of privatisation, workers rights etc. (as the SP did) not simple sloganeering.
Eirigi remain small in the south though with an active and energetic core. If they intend to grow they have to become more serious and sophisticated in their tactics and politics, otherwise all that energy will be largely directionless. Also, it is mainly dissafected Shinners going to them, but it is preferable to see them joining Eirigi than groups like RSF, IRSP etc.
Lastly, they are sectarian by any standards. The statement there about ‘imperialist triumphalism’ once again demonstrates that Left-Republicans forget that the main obstacle to a United Ireland is the unwillingness of Northern Protestants to enter into such a body, not British imperialism (The 6 counties being a giant hole in their finances). If they are serious about a United Ireland they would spend more time trying to convince working-class protestants of the need for a Socialist Ireland rather than quixotic protests against royal visits.
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[…] Many thanks to AK at the Irish Election Literature Blog for the following analysis, part of a continuing series, which I think will be of considerable […]
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[…] at the upcoming General Election. This is a part of a continuing series by AK. Other posts are here and […]
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[…] Many thanks to AK at the Irish Election Literature Blog for the following analysis, part of a continuing series, which I think will be of considerable […]
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